Today we’ll dig a little deeper into the best odds for a futures bet on this year’s National Championship.
Last week we looked at strength of schedule for the 13 schools that have the best odds of winning the national championship, based on recruiting rankings. These schools all have had at least 2 top 10 recruiting classes in the past four years prior to this year. In the past 20 years, only one team has won a national championship without that as a precursor.
If you want to get caught up, here’s last week’s article: winningcureseverything.blogspot.com/2016/04/the-only-13-college-football-teams-that.html
As a refresher, here are the teams, their current odds, and their strength of schedule.
| Team | Odds | SOS |
| Alabama | 6/1 | 5 |
| Clemson | 7/1 | 34 |
| Ohio State | 8/1 | 31 |
| Michigan | 10/1 | 65 |
| Florida State | 12/1 | 3 |
| LSU | 12/1 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 14/1 | 35 |
| Notre Dame | 18/1 | 48 |
| Ole Miss | 30/1 | 2 |
| Georgia | 33/1 | 16 |
| Auburn | 35/1 | 11 |
| USC | 50/1 | 1 |
| Florida | 55/1 | 49 |
We also laid out the games between these teams. Now, USC has the #1 SOS, but they only play 2 of the teams on this list – Alabama in the first game at a neutral site, and Notre Dame in the final game of the season. They are favored in every game except the Alabama game. So basically, with the way things have gone, if they lose the first game and then win out, they would have a great shot at getting into the playoff. Having them at 50-1 seems like good odds. But, with them having the #1 most difficult schedule, that may be too far gone for them.
All of the SEC teams play each other, with Florida having the lowest Strength of Schedule out of those… but they have to play Georgia on a neutral field, and play at Tennessee and at Florida St with a first year quarterback. So they may be out for this.
With the SEC, you’ve gotta figure out who’s going to be the best team, right? Because Ole Miss has the #2 SOS (plays Florida St), Alabama #5 (plays USC), LSU #6, Auburn #11, Georgia #16, Tennessee #35, and Florida #49. Ole Miss replaces a lot of NFL talent and has a really difficult first game with FSU, so mark them out. Alabama opens with USC, but they’ve had really difficult schedules in the past. This will be the first time in 9 years they’ll have a new defensive coordinator. They’ll be starting a new QB, but they’ve won titles with those before (including last season), and they’ll have more talent than everybody they play. LSU broke down at the end of last season, has the #6 most difficult schedule, and if Brandon Harris is their QB, he hasn’t really proven that he’s capable of stepping up in a big moment. Tennessee looks like they’re ready, with the #35 SOS, but they play Alabama (even though it’s at home) and have lost 9 straight to Bama and 10 straight to Florida, although both are at home. Georgia’s schedule sets up nicely, but they have a first year head coach, first year qb, and have a team full of guys that haven’t been able to get over the hump. Florida has a first year qb, and they have Florida St at the end of the season, along with games against Georgia and at Tennessee. Auburn went 6-6 last season, and open with Clemson, so that’s gonna be tough for them.
Everyone has flaws in the SEC, but Alabama is almost always the best bet, so long as Saban is still the head coach. But the odds aren’t great for them, since they’re the favorites.
Notre Dame is 18/1, and they looked good last year, but finished the season with a loss at Stanford, which cost them a shot at the playoff. They have a lot of returning starters, and a lot of talent, and their only really difficult game is at USC at the end of the year.
Florida St opens with Ole Miss, plays Clemson at home, and then ends with Florida at home. They’ll be favorites in every game except maybe Clemson. At 12/1, those aren’t bad odds.
Clemson opens at Auburn, which shouldn’t be too difficult. Their schedule is setup to win out, aside from a tilt at Florida St, who will have a new QB, but still equal amounts of talent. D. Watson may be enough to put them over the top. The issue with them is what it always has been – same with Georgia. Will they shit the bed at some point in the season?
Michigan and Ohio St are one in the same, other than Ohio St has to play at Oklahoma, who happens to be 8/1 to win the national championship, along with Ohio St. They were great last year and return a top quarterback, which is something Ohio St does not, so they may have a shot to pull an upset early in the year. Michigan, however, plays literally one decent team (Michigan St) until they finish at Ohio St at the end of the season. Michigan St has to replace their qb and several other key positions, so Michigan will be favored over them, as will Ohio St.
Looking at all of the options, if you’re looking for the most return on your investment, Notre Dame may be your best bet, even at 18/1, because they only have to get up for 1 game the entire season. The USC game will basically be their whole season. So if you’ve only gotta play one game for all the marbles, that’s significantly better odds than all the others. Of course, you’ve gotta look at the playoffs now, so the teams with a little better strength of schedule against better competition will be setup better for winner-take-all game (see Alabama over Michigan St last year).
My picks: Alabama (6/1), Clemson (7/1), Michigan (10/1), and Notre Dame (18/1). We’ll go through the best return on investment later.
