We lay out every possible scenario for the College Football Playoff heading into the conference championship games. Grab your WCE shirts for the season here.
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The College Football Playoff rankings were revealed last night on ESPN, and it set up some very interesting debates.
Let’s go through the playoff standings first:
- Clemson
- Auburn
- Oklahoma
- Wisconsin
- Alabama
- Georgia
- Miami
- Ohio St
- Penn St
- USC
- TCU
- Stanford
We won’t go past 12 because, honestly, it doesn’t matter. Here are the resumes that the CFP committee looks at for each team:
Championship weekend will have 5 games between top 12 teams for the first time ever.
Wisconsin, even as an undefeated team, came in at 4, which lets us know that they don’t really value Wisconsin, so if Ohio St beats them, how much will that win weigh with the committee?
Remember, last year, Ohio St got in as the #3 seed without even winning their division, Washington as #4, and Penn St was left out at #5 as the Big 10 Champions with a head to head win over Ohio St.
This is what Committee Chairman Kirby Hocutt said last year about Washington getting in over Penn St:
“We looked at a lot of things,” Hocutt told ESPN. “We looked at two conference championship teams. … We looked at one-loss Washington — that loss being against a top-10 opponent — compared to a two-loss Penn State team — one loss they were not competitive in that particular game, the other loss was to an 8-4 team. We talked about strength of schedule. Obviously, strength of schedule favored Penn State. Had Washington had a stronger strength of schedule, I don’t think the conversation and discussion would have been as difficult.
Let’s break down all of the possible scenarios featuring the 4 games that really matter.
First, here are the matchups that will affect the College Football Playoff this weekend:
- TCU vs Oklahoma (Arlington, TX 11:30am FOX)
- Auburn vs Georgia (Atlanta, GA 3pm CBS)
- Wisconsin vs Ohio St (Indianapolis, IN 7pm FOX)
- Clemson vs Miami (Charlotte, NC 7pm ABC)
SCENARIO 1
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
In this situation, the top 4 seeds will all get into the playoff. This is what the Playoff committee wants to happen. With this scenario, it’s easy. The field is already seeded.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Wisconsin (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Auburn vs #3 Oklahoma (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 2
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
In this situation, the debate between Ohio St and Alabama will be massive. This is what the Playoff committee does NOT want to happen. In this case, there will be other things that can play into it. If Fresno St wins at Boise St, that will help Alabama, and give them 3 Top 25 wins, compared to Ohio St’s 4 Top 25 wins. Ohio St will have better wins, but with a blowout loss at home to Oklahoma, and a 31 point blowout loss at 7-5 Iowa, I believe Alabama will get the spot.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Auburn vs #3 Oklahoma (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 3
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
In this situation, the debate between Ohio St and Alabama won’t matter. TCU is not viewed as highly as Alabama and Ohio St by the committee, and I don’t know that a Big 12 Championship win will change that. In this situation, Alabama and Ohio St will make the playoff, and give us an Iron Bowl rematch in the Rose Bowl.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Ohio St (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Auburn vs #3 Alabama (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 4
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
Again, in this situation, the debate between Ohio St and Alabama won’t matter. Auburn would have 3 losses at this point, and they would be out of the playoff. Georgia would move up, and I would imagine they will move up to #2 with a win here, so basically, Georgia and Auburn would swap places from Scenario 3, giving us another SEC matchup in the Rose Bowl.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Ohio St (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Georgia vs #3 Alabama (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 5
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
It is very unlikely that all 4 lower ranked teams would win, but if that is the case, then we get an interesting scenario. Miami and Georgia would be the only 1 loss teams, along with Alabama and Wisconsin, left in the Power 5. We know that Wisconsin is not viewed highly by the committee. In this situation, Miami and Georgia will move up, while the 4 teams left will be picked between Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, and TCU. I believe Alabama and Clemson will get into the final 2 spots, given how highly the committee thinks of Clemson’s schedule. That would give us 2 teams from the SEC, and 2 teams from the ACC, which might break the playoff system and get fans an expansion. Georgia has a better strength of schedule and more quality wins than Miami, so Georgia will jump to #1 here.
- #1 Georgia vs #4 Clemson (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Miami vs #3 Alabama (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 6
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
Take a look at Scenario 5, and it’s basically the same situation. Auburn moves to #1 instead of Georgia, and the others stay the same.
- #1 Auburn vs #4 Clemson (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Miami vs #3 Alabama (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 7
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
This is where it gets weird. If Miami beats Clemson, that gives us a situation where the committee is debating between Ohio St, Alabama, and Clemson. Clemson, before the championship games, has the best resume in the country, according to the committee. Clemson’s win over #1 Auburn will weigh heavily here, and I believe, give them the advantage over Alabama and Ohio St, even with Ohio St being a conference champion.
- #1 Auburn vs #4 Clemson (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Miami (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 8
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
It would seem easy to look at this situation and just think that Miami will take Clemson’s spot, and the other 3 spots would be filled by the conference championship winners. But the committee would have to really think hard about the resumes of Clemson and Wisconsin.
How much do losses count? A lot of this will depend on whether or not Miami blows out Clemson, or if it is a field goal, or fluke, kind of win. Any close Miami win will make this much more difficult. If Miami dominates Clemson, then Wisconsin gets in no problem. In my opinion, you cannot leave out an undefeated Power 5 conference champion, much the same way they did back in 2014 when they put in undefeated Florida St, even though their resume was shaky. I think Wisconsin gets in at this point, and Miami sneaks in at #4.
- #1 Auburn vs #4 Miami (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 9
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
Even more interesting here. At this point, Wisconsin is in, Ohio St is out, Miami is in, and you have to discuss between Clemson and Alabama for the #4 spot. The Committee liked Alabama’s resume when they were undefeated, but it evens things up a little bit with Clemson and Alabama both not having a conference championship. Here are the resumes to look at:
With a bad loss on the record, and 2 losses, I believe Alabama gets in over Clemson, setting up a rematch in the Sugar Bowl in New Orleans with Auburn.
- #1 Auburn vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Wisconsin vs #3 Miami (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 10
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
In this case, Oklahoma moves to the #1 spot, Georgia moves to #2, Miami #3, and then we have the same debate between Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio St, but for only 1 spot. You’ve got the resumes up there. At that point, it’s either a 2nd ACC or SEC team, or a Big 10 Champion with a 31 point loss at 7-5 Iowa. I don’t think the Iowa loss gets past the committee, and I think the loss at Syracuse drops Clemson, giving Alabama the benefit of the doubt at #4.
- #1 Oklahoma vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Auburn vs #3 Miami (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 11
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #8 Ohio St beats #4 Wisconsin
Clemson will stay at #1 with a win over Miami, and Oklahoma will move to #2. Georgia, after a win over Auburn, will move up to #3, sending them to Rose Bowl against Oklahoma, and, in this case, we’ve got the same Alabama vs Ohio St debate.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Oklahoma vs #3 Georgia (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 12
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
In this case, there’s not much movement. Georgia, with a win over #2, moves to the #2 spot, after looking at their resume vs Oklahoma’s. Oklahoma would stay at 3, and Wisconsin would stay at 4.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Wisconsin (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Georgia vs #3 Oklahoma (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 13
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #2 Auburn beats #6 Georgia
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
If TCU beats Oklahoma, that makes it a pretty easy situation. Alabama will get in over TCU, based on resume, but they won’t jump Wisconsin because of the undefeated record and the Big 10 Championship.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Auburn vs #3 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 14
- #1 Clemson beats #7 Miami
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
If TCU beats Oklahoma, that makes it a pretty easy situation, regardless of what happens with the Georgia game. Georgia will take Auburn’s place, and Alabama will get in over TCU, based on resume, but they won’t jump Wisconsin because of the undefeated record and the Big 10 Championship.
- #1 Clemson vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Georgia vs #3 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 15
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #3 Oklahoma beats #11 TCU
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
Miami jumps Clemson, Georgia jumps Auburn, and Oklahoma and Wisconsin get in here. The debate will come up between Wisconsin and Clemson, but the committee won’t leave out an undefeated Big 10 Champion for a 2 loss non-champion with a loss to 4-8 Syracuse on their resume.
- #1 Oklahoma vs #4 Miami (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Georgia vs #3 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
SCENARIO 16
- #7 Miami beats #1 Clemson
- #6 Georgia beats #2 Auburn
- #11 TCU beats #3 Oklahoma
- #4 Wisconsin beats #8 Ohio St
If Wisconsin is the only higher ranked team to win, that sets up a Clemson vs Alabama debate, just like in scenario 9. In that situation, I believed Alabama would get in over Clemson, due to the loss to Syracuse. Georgia would grab the top spot, due to resume, while Miami’s resume would trump Wisconsin’s, dropping Alabama to #4, setting up an SEC matchup in the Sugar Bowl.
- #1 Georgia vs #4 Alabama (Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA)
- #2 Miami vs #3 Wisconsin (Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA)
If you’re Alabama, here’s what you’re hoping for Saturday:
- Auburn over Georgia (so the loss to them looks better)
- TCU over Oklahoma
- Ohio St over Wisconsin
- Fresno St over Boise St (to add a Top 25 win)
- Florida St over ULM (so the Florida St win at the beginning of the season looks better)
If you’re Ohio St, you need to win, and hope for this:
- TCU over Oklahoma
- Boise St over Fresno St (to drop an Alabama top 25 win)
- ULM over Florida St (due to Bama’s win over Florida St)
If you’re Clemson, and you lose, you need to hope for this:
- Auburn over Georgia (so your win means more)
- TCU over Oklahoma
- Ohio St over Wisconsin
- Boise St over Fresno St (to drop Alabama’s Top 25 wins)
- ULM over Florida St (to drop Alabama’s win over FSU, even though Clemson has a win over Florida St)
