On Tuesday, I explained the 16 scenarios that could come out of Saturday’s championship games.
To try and figure out the future, you have to look at the past to understand how we got to the present.
If Ohio St beats Wisconsin, and the other favorites hold serve, the debate will rage between 11-1 Alabama with no conference championship, and 11-2 Ohio St with a Big 10 Championship.
Last year 11-1 non-champion Ohio St was the 3 seed in the College Football Playoff, with PAC 12 Champ 12-1 Washington at #4, and Big 10 Champ 11-2 Penn St at #5, even with a head to head win over Ohio St.
If the last playoff spot comes down to Ohio St and Alabama, here are some things we’ve learned in the first 3 years of the playoffs.
No team has ever risen from lower than #5 in the next-to-last playoff ranking to make the field
Let’s take a look at the prior seasons Top 25 rankings.
2014 – Ohio St moved from #5 to #4 after a 59-0 win over #13 Wisconsin in the Big 10 Championship game. TCU was bumped from #3 to #6, even after a 55-3 win over 2-10 Iowa St. For clarification, Baylor had a 38-27 win over #9 Kansas St, which helped them move up as well.
2015 – Ohio St only lost one game – a 17-14 setback at home to Michigan St. Iowa was 12-0 and Michigan St 11-1 heading into the Big 10 Championship game, so we knew the winner of that game would be in. In the last playoff poll, Ohio St went from #6 to #7 after being jumped by Stanford, who won the Pac-12 title over #24 USC. That showed, to many, that winning a conference championship would be incredibly important to getting into the playoff. Of course, after blowouts by Clemson and Alabama over Oklahoma and Michigan St, that may have gone out the window.
2016 – Ohio St lost on the road at Penn St in October – their only loss on the season. Penn St lost to Pittsburgh in early September 42-39, and then to Michigan 49-10 in October. The loss to Michigan appeared to be the biggest problem, according to CFP Chairman Kirby Hocutt, who said “We looked at one-loss Washington — that loss being against a top-10 opponent — compared to a two-loss Penn State team — one loss they were not competitive in that particular game, the other loss was to an 8-4 team.” Ohio St was bumped from 2 to 3 in the final playoff poll, behind ACC Champ Clemson, because they did not win a conference championship. Ohio St stayed that high because of their 3 wins over top 10 teams (#6 Michigan, #7 Oklahoma, #8 Wisconsin).
And here is 2017’s next-to-last ranking.
Moving Ohio St from #8 to #4 would be unprecedented from the first 3 years of the playoff rankings.
No team has ever gotten into the playoff with 2 losses
In the first 3 years of the playoff, we’ve always had 1 undefeated team surrounded by 3 one-loss teams.
2014
- Alabama (12-1)
- Oregon (12-1)
- Florida St (13-0)
- Ohio St (12-1)
2015
- Clemson (13-0)
- Alabama (12-1)
- Michigan St (12-1)
- Oklahoma (11-1)
2016
- Alabama (13-0)
- Clemson (12-1)
- Ohio St (11-1)
- Washington (12-1)
No team has ever made the playoff with a loss of more than 14 points
2014
- Ohio St – Sept 6th vs Virginia Tech (6-6) 31-25
- Alabama – Oct 4th at Ole Miss (9-3, #9) 23-17
- Oregon – Oct 2nd vs Arizona (9-3, #12) 31-24
2015
- Alabama – Sept 19th vs Ole Miss (9-3, #12) 43-37
- Michigan St – Nov 7th at Nebraska (5-7) 39-38
- Oklahoma – Oct 10th vs Texas (5-7) 24-17
2016
- Clemson – Nov 12th vs Pittsburgh (8-4, #22) 43-42
- Ohio St – Oct 22nd at Penn St (11-2, #5) 24-21
- Washington – Nov 12th vs USC (9-3, #9) 26-13
This year’s playoff rankings, with an Ohio St win and the other 3 favorites winning, will certainly be a first for the playoff committee, no matter what they decide. Either a 1 loss non-champion with no top 10 wins and a 12 point loss at the #2 team in the country, or a 2 loss conference champ with a 31 point loss to a 7-5 team in November and a 15 point loss at home to the #3 team in the country.
