We’ve finally reached the end of the college football regular season, and the Championship Weekend is now upon us. And what a long, strange season it’s been.
We’re now to the point where the playoff committee has to show whether they’re interested in viewership, or retaining their credibility. They stated one of the most important criteria for getting into the playoff would be conference championships… but the way things are ranked, and how they are talking about teams leads one to believe that TV ratings may be more important, especially after how poor the ratings were last year for the Alabama / Michigan St game in Dallas and the Clemson / Oklahoma game in Miami. The ratings were so bad, in fact, that ESPN had to give away $20M in free ads due to the viewership being so horrible.
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With Ohio St being ranked at #2 in the latest rankings, and Michigan only dropping to #5, and Kirby Hocutt stating that there is only a very slim margin between Washington at 4 and Michigan at 5, what exactly does this mean for the potential conference champions that are ranked behind them? I’m looking at you, Penn St, Wisconsin, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St.
We’re going to look at the resumes of each team, and what possible scenario could get them into the playoff. We’ll start out with four teams that, for all intents and purposes, have no way of getting into the college football playoff, and I’ll explain why.
10. Oklahoma St
Even with a win in Bedlam, in Norman, OK against the Sooners, that will only push Oklahoma State’s record to 10-2, with losses to Baylor (currently 6-5, #49 Sagarin) and Central Michigan (6-6, #102 Sagarin). Their best non-conference win is actually a pretty good win over Pittsburgh (8-4, #28 Sagarin). Even if you don’t count the loss to Central Michigan, Oklahoma St is not a great name, and has just now gotten themselves into the Top 10. Mike Gundy is a great coach, but their best win would be over a 10-2 West Virginia team that didn’t happen to beat anybody either.
9. Oklahoma
Oklahoma is basically boxed out of the playoff thanks to their early season loss to Houston, and Ohio St only having one loss. Ohio St beat Oklahoma in Norman, and there’s no way you can put a 2 loss Oklahoma in over a 1 loss Ohio St when the Buckeyes beat the Sooners by 21 in their own stadium. No need to even go over resume here.
8. Colorado
Colorado has 2 losses (at USC and at Michigan), and their best win, other than a possible win over Washington, would be a 10-5 win at home over a 9-3 Stanford team (#16 Sagarin) that, at the time, had one of the worst offenses in college football. They’re also somewhat blocked out, but by Michigan at #5, who has wins over this Colorado team, Wisconsin, and Penn St (both teams in the Big 10). So if Colorado wins, that means Michigan will have beaten both the Big 10 and the Pac 12 champions this year. So there’s no way to talk the committee into moving the Buffs over the Wolverines.
6. Wisconsin
Wisconsin is in the same boat that Colorado is in. Even if they win, they’re stuck behind Michigan, because they don’t have any better wins than Michigan (best conference win would be over Penn St, if they win Saturday, and best non-conference win is over a 7-4 LSU team that fired their coach midseason). Since Michigan and Ohio St both own wins over Wisconsin, even a conference championship won’t be able to convince the committee to put the Badgers in over one of those teams.
Now we get to whether or not the committee will pick TV ratings over teams actually deserving it.
Here are the teams that only have to win and they’re in…
1. Alabama
Alabama is 12-0, and, honestly, even if they lose on Saturday, will probably be the #1 overall seed. The Tide currently have 9 wins over top 50 FPI teams. To put that in perspective, #2 Ohio St is 5-1 in such games, #3 Clemson is 5-1, #4 Washington is only 2-1, and #5 Michigan is 3-2. There’s pretty much no way, when comparing with other teams, that they can keep the Crimson Tide out. The Tide will be playing in Atlanta.
3. Clemson
Clemson is 5-1 against the FPI top 50, and if they win Saturday, they’ll add another win over #26 Virginia Tech, along with an ACC Championship to their resume. There’s not much that can happen to keep them out… so long as they win. If they lose? They’re out.
Now to the teams that can possibly get in… but it’s up to the committee.
2. Ohio St.
The Buckeyes have wins over three CFB Playoff top 10 teams: #5 Michigan, #6 Wisconsin and #9 Oklahoma. However, they lost the game that mattered, as far as the Big 10 Championship is concerned: at Penn St. And they only lost that due to a field goal being blocked and returned for a touchdown. They haven’t looked great down the stretch, but they didn’t lose again… the way they played against Michigan St (won 17-16), when compared against Penn State’s win over the Spartans a week later (a 45-12 win), doesn’t bode well for the Buckeyes.
4. Washington
Washington, if they beat Colorado, can go to 12-1, and they’ll feel like a lock to be in the playoffs, but the truth is, they don’t bring much of a brand, their TV ratings are pretty terrible, and their strength of schedule (and their wins) do more than leave something to be desired. They will be 3-1 over FPI top 50 wins. Their strength of schedule will be in the 50s. Their conference is pretty bad, and their best win would be over a 3 loss Colorado team that a lot of people think is good, but is more of a product of the conference being down (think Vanderbilt going 9-3 under James Franklin). The best team they played, USC, beat them in their own stadium by 2 TDs. Can they get in just because they’re a conference champion?
5. Michigan
The Wolverines have wins over three Top 10 teams as well: #6 Wisconsin, #7 Penn St, and #8 Colorado. So they, for the most part, have everyone blocked out… or at least you would think. Michigan also is only 3-2 against Top 50 teams (the only other 2 they played were on the road at Ohio St and at Iowa), and they went 1-2 in their last 3 games, which is not how you want playoff teams to play when they’re trying to secure a spot in the postseason. The only way Michigan gets into the playoff is if the powers that be want to put them in for viewers. You can justify having them in because of their wins in September and October, but they did not finish strong at all.
7. Penn St
Penn St has won 7 straight games, and have scored at least 39 points, and have won every one of those games by at least 14 points. They’re rocking right now, and the team is fun to watch. Not to mention they bring a pretty decent brand (or at least the resurgence of one) with them to a possible playoff berth. If they beat Wisconsin, they’ll add that to a resume that already includes the best win in the country (over Ohio St). So a win over Ohio St and a Big 10 Championship (which is supposedly the best conference in college football this year) should get them in, right? Well, the only difference is that Penn St lost at Pitt in the 2nd game of the year… otherwise there would be no questions here.
So now for the question: Is the committee more worried about viewers or credibility?
I’m of the belief that they want both, if they can help it. And I think part of it will work out in their favor. I think Colorado will beat Washington tonight, but it won’t move Michigan into the 4th spot. Penn St will beat Wisconsin and will earn the 4th seed against Alabama, while Clemson will beat Virginia Tech in a close game, and Ohio St will also make the field as the 3 seed. So the final seeds on Sunday will be as follows:
#1 Alabama vs #4 Penn St (in Atlanta)
#2 Clemson vs #3 Ohio St (in Glendale)
Let the chaos begin, shall we?
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