Gary’s 2018 College Football Week 10 Gambling Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

• my metrics have Army by 13
• Army won at Air Force 21-0 last year after being dominated by AF for nearly a decade
• Army coach Jeff Monken has made it a point that they are going to beat the other service academies… and there’s no love loss between Army’s coaching staff and Air Force coach Troy Calhoun
• Army is 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games, and Air Force is 2-3-1 ATS in their last 6

• my numbers have Georgia -9, so no real factor here
• Georgia is 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite
• Kentucky is 6-4 ATS, winning 5 straight up, in their last 10 games as an underdog
• Kentucky only gives up 3.3 yds per run (#15 in the country), and only 4.59 yds per play (#13 total defense), which will stifle the Georgia offense
• Kentucky has done a good job of protecting the football (+4 turnover margin in the last 4 games)
• I think Kentucky matches up better with Georgia than they did with Missouri… and they beat Missouri on the road

• my numbers have Iowa as a 3 point favorite… WRONG TEAM FAVORED.
• Iowa is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog
• Purdue has not beaten a team with a top 50 defense (#50 Northwestern, #41 Michigan St), and Iowa is #4 in total defense
• Look for Iowa to run the football, dominate time of possession, and limit Purdue’s opportunities.  I’m expecting some interceptions by David Blough, and Iowa wins straight up.

• My numbers have Notre Dame by 6 – the line opened at 7, and has now been bet all the way up to 10
• Northwestern is 15-5 ATS in their last 20 games as an underdog (including 12 outright wins)
• Notre Dame is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as a favorite
• Notre Dame is 1-8 straight up on the road vs Power 5 teams in November since 2013 (only win was at Pittsburgh in 2015)

• my numbers have Fresno St by 27
• Fresno St is 22-4-1 ATS in their last 27 regular season games
• UNLV is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home underdog
• Fresno is #15 in total defense and #4 in scoring defense – UNLV will have trouble putting up points all night

• my metrics have Washington St by 15
• Washington St is #12 in scoring offense (40+ppg) and Cal is #100 (24.9ppg)
• Cal has the better defense (#17 nationally), but Washington St’s defense is pretty good too (#26)
• Cal has been absolutely blasted by other teams (gave up 42 to Oregon and 37 to UCLA)
• Cal needs turnovers in order to hang around in games, and Wash St QB Gardner Minshew has only thrown 6 interceptions on the year

• my metrics have Utah St -17, so I’m going against my own numbers here
• Utah St is 7-1 ATS the season, while Hawaii is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games
• Hawaii will be playing their 11th straight game this season with no bye – they got smashed 50-20 at Fresno St last week, and Utah St’s offense is much better than Fresno’s