Gary’s 2018 College Football Week 11 Gambling Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 11!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Fresno St (-3) @ Boise St   (Friday / 9:15pm / ESPN2) 

  • metrics have this at Fresno -3.3
  • Boise is 2-4-1 ATS since their first 2 games of the season (did not cover at Oklahoma St and it’s been all downhill since then)
  • Fresno is 7-0 ATS in that same span
  • Fresno is 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games, dating back to 2016
  • Fresno has the obvious coaching advantage here, and is in a revenge spot, because they lost the MWC Championship Game at Boise last year


Ohio St @ Michigan St (+4)   (Saturday / 11am / FOX)

  • these are 2 teams going in completely opposite directions
  • metrics have this Ohio St -0.2
  • Mich St is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 (only loss being to Michigan)
  • since Urban Meyer returned, Ohio St covered against Tulane & have lost 5 straight ATS


Virginia Tech @ Pitt (-2.5)   (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPNU)

  • metrics have Pitt -6
  • Pitt has covered 4 straight ATS, Virginia Tech has lost 4 straight ATS
  • Pitt’s running game has been on fire, averaging 8.29 yds per carry over the last 4 against Syracuse, @ Notre Dame, Duke, and @ Virginia  |  Virginia Tech’s rushing defense has been awful last 4 games, giving up 5.46 yds per carry vs Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Boston College


Washington St (-6) @ Colorado   (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)

  • metrics have Wash St -8
  • Colorado has 4 straight losses, 1-3 ATS
  • Washington St survived their Pac-12 after dark game vs Cal… were 8-0 ATS before that game
  • CU’s Lavishka Shenault is not 100%
  • Colorado’s passing defense is #77 in the country, and they’ve given up a whole slew of points over the last 4 weeks


East Carolina @ Tulane (-13.5)   (Saturday / 3pm / ESPN News)

  • metrics have Tulane -16.5
  • Tulane has covered 2 straight, including smashing USF in Tampa 41-15
  • ECU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5
  • ECU defense is giving up over 6 yds per play over the last 4 losses


LSU (-13.5) @ Arkansas   (Saturday / 6:30pm / SEC Network)

  • metrics have LSU -21.67
  • in Ed Orgeron’s 2 appearances vs Arkansas, both after the Alabama game, the Tigers have won 38-10 and 33-10
  • Arkansas had 4 straight covers before lsoing 45-31 at home to Vandy 2 weeks ago
  • LSU’s going to be pissed off after losing at home to Alabama, and should come out with a vengeance


Clemson @ Boston College (+20)   (Saturday / 7pm / ABC)

  • metrics have Clemson -17
  • BC has covered 4 of the last 5 vs Clemson
  • BC is 3-0-1 last 4 games as home underdog, and 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2016
  • BC is 11-1 ATS vs ACC teams in the last 2 seasons
About Gary Segars 1453 Articles
Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: Twitter: @GaryWCE