Gary’s picks
College Football
Week 11! To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!
Fresno St (-3) @ Boise St (Friday / 9:15pm / ESPN2)
- metrics have this at Fresno -3.3
- Boise is 2-4-1 ATS since their first 2 games of the season (did not cover at Oklahoma St and it’s been all downhill since then)
- Fresno is 7-0 ATS in that same span
- Fresno is 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games, dating back to 2016
- Fresno has the obvious coaching advantage here, and is in a revenge spot, because they lost the MWC Championship Game at Boise last year
Ohio St @ Michigan St (+4) (Saturday / 11am / FOX)
- these are 2 teams going in completely opposite directions
- metrics have this Ohio St -0.2
- Mich St is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 (only loss being to Michigan)
- since Urban Meyer returned, Ohio St covered against Tulane & have lost 5 straight ATS
Virginia Tech @ Pitt (-2.5) (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPNU)
- metrics have Pitt -6
- Pitt has covered 4 straight ATS, Virginia Tech has lost 4 straight ATS
- Pitt’s running game has been on fire, averaging 8.29 yds per carry over the last 4 against Syracuse, @ Notre Dame, Duke, and @ Virginia | Virginia Tech’s rushing defense has been awful last 4 games, giving up 5.46 yds per carry vs Notre Dame, @ North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Boston College
Washington St (-6) @ Colorado (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)
- metrics have Wash St -8
- Colorado has 4 straight losses, 1-3 ATS
- Washington St survived their Pac-12 after dark game vs Cal… were 8-0 ATS before that game
- CU’s Lavishka Shenault is not 100%
- Colorado’s passing defense is #77 in the country, and they’ve given up a whole slew of points over the last 4 weeks
East Carolina @ Tulane (-13.5) (Saturday / 3pm / ESPN News)
- metrics have Tulane -16.5
- Tulane has covered 2 straight, including smashing USF in Tampa 41-15
- ECU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5
- ECU defense is giving up over 6 yds per play over the last 4 losses
LSU (-13.5) @ Arkansas (Saturday / 6:30pm / SEC Network)
- metrics have LSU -21.67
- in Ed Orgeron’s 2 appearances vs Arkansas, both after the Alabama game, the Tigers have won 38-10 and 33-10
- Arkansas had 4 straight covers before lsoing 45-31 at home to Vandy 2 weeks ago
- LSU’s going to be pissed off after losing at home to Alabama, and should come out with a vengeance
Clemson @ Boston College (+20) (Saturday / 7pm / ABC)
- metrics have Clemson -17
- BC has covered 4 of the last 5 vs Clemson
- BC is 3-0-1 last 4 games as home underdog, and 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2016
- BC is 11-1 ATS vs ACC teams in the last 2 seasons
