Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 12!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!  These lines are where I got it early in the week (usually Monday, or Tuesday).  To see updated lines, visit here.

Northwestern (-3) @ Minnesota   (Saturday / 11am / BTN) 

  • metrics have NW -5.4
  • Northwestern is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 vs Big 10
  • Northwestern is 13-2 ATS last 15 on the road vs Big 10
  • Minnesota’s 41-10 win over Purdue last week seemed fluky as hell

 

Pitt (-6) @ Wake Forest   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN Extra or ACC Regional)

  • metrics have Pitt -4.6
  • Pitt is 5-0 ATS the last 5 games
  • Wake gives up 5.19 yds per rush (#113 in the country) & Pitt gains 6.49 yds per rush (#4 in the country)
  • I think Pitt runs all over Wake Forest here

 

Utah St (-28) @ Colorado St   (Saturday / 1pm / AT&T Rocky Mountain Sports Network)

  • metrics have Utah St -25.2
  • Utah St is 9-1 ATS this season, and have covered 4 straight
  • Colorado St is 3-7 ATS this season, and have failed to cover 3 straight
  • Colorado St is #119 in scoring defense, giving up 38.3 ppg vs Utah St’s #1 in scoring offense, scoring 51.3 ppg
  • Utah St is #31 in scoring defense (21.9 ppg) vs Colorado St, #107 in scoring offense, scoring 23.1 ppg
  • Utah St will score early and often, and should put up a TON of points here, while Colorado St won’t be able to keep pace

 

Georgia St @ Appalachian St (-28)   (Saturday / 1:30pm / ESPN3)

  • metrics have App St -27.12
  • App St is 8-2 ATS this year, and their QB, Zac Thomas, is back and rolling
  • Georgia St is 2-6-1 ATS this year
  • Georgia St QB Dan Ellington did not play last week, and is questionable for this week.

 

Nevada (-15) @ San Jose St   (Saturday / 4pm / ESPN3)

  • metrics have Nevada -14
  • Nevada is 5-1 ATS in their last 6, including covering 4 straight
  • San Jose St is 5-5 ATS, and had covered 3 straight until not covering last week vs Utah St
  • San Jose St is #121 in scoring defense, giving up 38.7 ppg, while Nevada is #34 in scoring offense (avg 33.8 ppg)… but Nevada has averaged 36ppg over their last 4

 

Arizona @ Washington St (-9.5)   (Saturday / 9:30pm / ESPN)

  • metrics have Washington St -13.9
  • Wash St is 9-1 ATS this season
  • Arizona is 6-4 ATS and have covered 3 straight
  • Arizona is #90 in the country in passing defense (giving up 248.7 ppg) & #74 in scoring defense (28.1 ppg)
  • Washington St will be able to throw all night, and they’ll score a lot.  Arizona will have trouble scoring on Washington St’s defense

 

San Diego St @ Fresno St (-15)   (Saturday / 9:30pm / CBSSN)

  • metrics have Fresno St -18.3
  • Fresno is 8-2 ATS this season, and are coming off a SU loss at Boise St
  • SDSU is 2-8 ATS this season (have not covered in 5 straight)
  • Fresno’s offense avgs 6.26 yds per play, while SDSU gives up only 4.64 yds per play
  • SDSU’s offense only avgs 5.42 yds per play, while Fresno only gives up 4.71 yds per play
  • Fresno should bounce back from a last second loss at Boise.