Gary’s 2018 College Football Week 9 Gambling Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 9!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!



  Clemson (-14) @ Florida St  (currently Clemson -17) (Saturday / 11am / ABC)  

  • my metrics have Clemson by 18.4
  • Florida St has covered 3 of last 4… but so has Clemson
  • after their bye week, Clemson has won at Wake Forest and vs NC State by a combined score of 104-10
  • Florida St kept last year’s game close… but Clemson held out multiple defensive starters with injuries
  • Florida St’s offensive line is terrible – only averaging 2.92 yds per rush, and #91 in the country in sacks given up… and Clemson is #3 in the country in tackles for loss


North Carolina @ Virginia (-9) (currently -9.5)   (Saturday / 11:20am / ACC Network)

  • my numbers have Virginia by 15
  • Virginia is 6-1 ATS, and North Carolina is 3-3 ATS this season.  North Carolina is 3-1 ATS vs ACC teams this year
  • North Carolina’s turnover margin is -8… Virginia’s is +2 this season
  • Virginia doesn’t turn the football over, and they’ve been on a roll lately.  They should cover 9 easily


Iowa (+5.5) @ Penn St (currently Iowa +6.5)   (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)

  • my numbers have Penn St by only 3… but I don’t trust that.  I think Iowa is better than Penn St.
  • Penn St has played to the level of competition
  • Penn St is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite vs the Big 10 (0-3 ATS this season)… Iowa is 3-0 ATS on the road this year
  • Iowa is 6-1 ATS this year, Penn St is 4-3
  • the best defense Penn St has played was Michigan St, who beat them 21-17 in Happy Valley… Iowa has the #5 scoring defense in the country


Kentucky (+7) @ Missouri (currently Kentucky +6.5)  (Saturday / 3pm / SECN)

  • Kentucky has won 3 straight vs Missouri
  • my numbers have Missouri -3, so I’m working with 4 points here
  • Kentucky is #2 in the country in scoring defense (giving up only 12.9 ppg) & they have the #31 passing defense (only given up 6 passing TDs)
  • I think Kentucky’s running game holds onto the football, and they limit Missouri’s possessions.  Even if they don’t win, I think they keep this one within the number


Texas A&M (+2.5, currently +2) @ Miss St   (Saturday / 6pm / ESPN)

  • I think this is the wrong team favored, although my numbers have Miss St -2.
  • Texas A&M is #4 in the country against the run, giving up only 78 rushing yds per game (and 3.1 ypc)
  • State has a great defense… but Nick Fitzgerald cannot throw the football, and I believe Kellen Mond will have some big plays against that Miss St passing defense, which ranks great, but has given up some explosive plays to Auburn, Florida and others


UAB (-17, currently -16) @ UTEP   (Saturday / 6:30pm / ESPN+)

  • UTEP’s most recent starting QB, Ryan Metz, is out with a concussion, and their other starting QB, Kai Locksley, is slowed with an ankle injury
  • my numbers have UAB -22.6, even before the UTEP injuries
  • UAB is 6-1 ATS this season… but UTEP is 4-3 ATS, including 3 straight covers (but that was before injuries)
  • UAB is #7 in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 15.1ppg… they’ll be able to keep UTEP off the scoreboard, and I think UAB QB AJ Erdely and RB Spencer Brown will be able to put up points


Hawaii @ Fresno St (-22.5, currently -24)  (Saturday / 9:30pm / ESPN2)

  • Fresno St is 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games the last 2 seasons, and 11-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record in that span
  • Hawaii is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
  • Hawaii has played 9 straight weeks (this will be #10 without a bye week), while Fresno St had a bye in week 4
  • the best passing defense Hawaii has faced so far was #39 BYU, who beat them 49-23.  Fresno is #13 in passing defense, and #10 in the country in total defense.
  • my numbers have Fresno -25
About Gary Segars 1209 Articles
Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: Twitter: @GaryWCE