Gary’s picks
College Football
Week 9! To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!
Clemson (-14) @ Florida St (currently Clemson -17) (Saturday / 11am / ABC)
- my metrics have Clemson by 18.4
- Florida St has covered 3 of last 4… but so has Clemson
- after their bye week, Clemson has won at Wake Forest and vs NC State by a combined score of 104-10
- Florida St kept last year’s game close… but Clemson held out multiple defensive starters with injuries
- Florida St’s offensive line is terrible – only averaging 2.92 yds per rush, and #91 in the country in sacks given up… and Clemson is #3 in the country in tackles for loss
North Carolina @ Virginia (-9) (currently -9.5) (Saturday / 11:20am / ACC Network)
- my numbers have Virginia by 15
- Virginia is 6-1 ATS, and North Carolina is 3-3 ATS this season. North Carolina is 3-1 ATS vs ACC teams this year
- North Carolina’s turnover margin is -8… Virginia’s is +2 this season
- Virginia doesn’t turn the football over, and they’ve been on a roll lately. They should cover 9 easily
Iowa (+5.5) @ Penn St (currently Iowa +6.5) (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)
- my numbers have Penn St by only 3… but I don’t trust that. I think Iowa is better than Penn St.
- Penn St has played to the level of competition
- Penn St is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite vs the Big 10 (0-3 ATS this season)… Iowa is 3-0 ATS on the road this year
- Iowa is 6-1 ATS this year, Penn St is 4-3
- the best defense Penn St has played was Michigan St, who beat them 21-17 in Happy Valley… Iowa has the #5 scoring defense in the country
Kentucky (+7) @ Missouri (currently Kentucky +6.5) (Saturday / 3pm / SECN)
- Kentucky has won 3 straight vs Missouri
- my numbers have Missouri -3, so I’m working with 4 points here
- Kentucky is #2 in the country in scoring defense (giving up only 12.9 ppg) & they have the #31 passing defense (only given up 6 passing TDs)
- I think Kentucky’s running game holds onto the football, and they limit Missouri’s possessions. Even if they don’t win, I think they keep this one within the number
Texas A&M (+2.5, currently +2) @ Miss St (Saturday / 6pm / ESPN)
- I think this is the wrong team favored, although my numbers have Miss St -2.
- Texas A&M is #4 in the country against the run, giving up only 78 rushing yds per game (and 3.1 ypc)
- State has a great defense… but Nick Fitzgerald cannot throw the football, and I believe Kellen Mond will have some big plays against that Miss St passing defense, which ranks great, but has given up some explosive plays to Auburn, Florida and others
UAB (-17, currently -16) @ UTEP (Saturday / 6:30pm / ESPN+)
- UTEP’s most recent starting QB, Ryan Metz, is out with a concussion, and their other starting QB, Kai Locksley, is slowed with an ankle injury
- my numbers have UAB -22.6, even before the UTEP injuries
- UAB is 6-1 ATS this season… but UTEP is 4-3 ATS, including 3 straight covers (but that was before injuries)
- UAB is #7 in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 15.1ppg… they’ll be able to keep UTEP off the scoreboard, and I think UAB QB AJ Erdely and RB Spencer Brown will be able to put up points
Hawaii @ Fresno St (-22.5, currently -24) (Saturday / 9:30pm / ESPN2)
- Fresno St is 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games the last 2 seasons, and 11-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record in that span
- Hawaii is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
- Hawaii has played 9 straight weeks (this will be #10 without a bye week), while Fresno St had a bye in week 4
- the best passing defense Hawaii has faced so far was #39 BYU, who beat them 49-23. Fresno is #13 in passing defense, and #10 in the country in total defense.
- my numbers have Fresno -25
