Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 9!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

 

 

  Clemson (-14) @ Florida St  (currently Clemson -17) (Saturday / 11am / ABC)  

  • my metrics have Clemson by 18.4
  • Florida St has covered 3 of last 4… but so has Clemson
  • after their bye week, Clemson has won at Wake Forest and vs NC State by a combined score of 104-10
  • Florida St kept last year’s game close… but Clemson held out multiple defensive starters with injuries
  • Florida St’s offensive line is terrible – only averaging 2.92 yds per rush, and #91 in the country in sacks given up… and Clemson is #3 in the country in tackles for loss

 

North Carolina @ Virginia (-9) (currently -9.5)   (Saturday / 11:20am / ACC Network)

  • my numbers have Virginia by 15
  • Virginia is 6-1 ATS, and North Carolina is 3-3 ATS this season.  North Carolina is 3-1 ATS vs ACC teams this year
  • North Carolina’s turnover margin is -8… Virginia’s is +2 this season
  • Virginia doesn’t turn the football over, and they’ve been on a roll lately.  They should cover 9 easily

 

Iowa (+5.5) @ Penn St (currently Iowa +6.5)   (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)

  • my numbers have Penn St by only 3… but I don’t trust that.  I think Iowa is better than Penn St.
  • Penn St has played to the level of competition
  • Penn St is 1-3 ATS in their last 4 as a home favorite vs the Big 10 (0-3 ATS this season)… Iowa is 3-0 ATS on the road this year
  • Iowa is 6-1 ATS this year, Penn St is 4-3
  • the best defense Penn St has played was Michigan St, who beat them 21-17 in Happy Valley… Iowa has the #5 scoring defense in the country

 

Kentucky (+7) @ Missouri (currently Kentucky +6.5)  (Saturday / 3pm / SECN)

  • Kentucky has won 3 straight vs Missouri
  • my numbers have Missouri -3, so I’m working with 4 points here
  • Kentucky is #2 in the country in scoring defense (giving up only 12.9 ppg) & they have the #31 passing defense (only given up 6 passing TDs)
  • I think Kentucky’s running game holds onto the football, and they limit Missouri’s possessions.  Even if they don’t win, I think they keep this one within the number

 

Texas A&M (+2.5, currently +2) @ Miss St   (Saturday / 6pm / ESPN)

  • I think this is the wrong team favored, although my numbers have Miss St -2.
  • Texas A&M is #4 in the country against the run, giving up only 78 rushing yds per game (and 3.1 ypc)
  • State has a great defense… but Nick Fitzgerald cannot throw the football, and I believe Kellen Mond will have some big plays against that Miss St passing defense, which ranks great, but has given up some explosive plays to Auburn, Florida and others

 

UAB (-17, currently -16) @ UTEP   (Saturday / 6:30pm / ESPN+)

  • UTEP’s most recent starting QB, Ryan Metz, is out with a concussion, and their other starting QB, Kai Locksley, is slowed with an ankle injury
  • my numbers have UAB -22.6, even before the UTEP injuries
  • UAB is 6-1 ATS this season… but UTEP is 4-3 ATS, including 3 straight covers (but that was before injuries)
  • UAB is #7 in the country in scoring defense, giving up only 15.1ppg… they’ll be able to keep UTEP off the scoreboard, and I think UAB QB AJ Erdely and RB Spencer Brown will be able to put up points

 

Hawaii @ Fresno St (-22.5, currently -24)  (Saturday / 9:30pm / ESPN2)

  • Fresno St is 17-3 ATS in their last 20 games the last 2 seasons, and 11-0 ATS vs teams with a winning record in that span
  • Hawaii is 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games
  • Hawaii has played 9 straight weeks (this will be #10 without a bye week), while Fresno St had a bye in week 4
  • the best passing defense Hawaii has faced so far was #39 BYU, who beat them 49-23.  Fresno is #13 in passing defense, and #10 in the country in total defense.
  • my numbers have Fresno -25