Gary’s picks
NFL Football
Week 9! To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!
Lions @ Vikings (-4) (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)
- this line opened at Vikings -7 on Monday morning, and was bet down to Vikings -4 by Tuesday morning – public is all over the Lions here
- metrics have this at Vikings by 7, so it was right on the number before the line was bet down
- the Vikings are 9-0 ATS the last 9 seasons in the week before a bye, and they need this one to get to 5-3-1 and stay alive in the NFC North.
Falcons @ Redskins (-1.5) (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)
- the Falcons defense is the cure for teams that need to get their passing game going, and Alex Smith will find plenty of holes in the ATL secondary – Falcons give up over 300 yds passing per game
- Redskins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 at home, while the Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 on the road
- the Falcons cannot run the ball, and they’re not going to start against the Redskins, who only give up 3.8 yds per carry, and right at 80 rushing yds per game
Chiefs (-9) @ Browns (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)
- The Chiefs are 7-1 ATS this season, and are looking to bounce back after not covering vs Broncos last week
- Browns are 6-22 ATS after 2 consecutive losses the last 3 seasons
- metrics have this as Chiefs -12
- there’s nobody to run the offense for the Browns, as HC Hue Jackson and OC Todd Haley were both fired this week. New OC Freddie Kitchens was the running backs coach, and has never called plays at any level
Steelers (+3) @ Ravens (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)
- this line looked a little funny when it opened at Ravens -3, as the Ravens have lost 2 straight
- I still like the Steelers here, as they’ve won, and covered, 3 straight games
- Ravens offense has fallen off since winning at Pitt at the end of September –
- Ravens have 9 guys that are questionable for this game – lots of small, nagging injuries – and the Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS the last 6 years in games the week before a bye
Rams @ Saints (-1.5) (Sunday / 3:25pm CT / NBC)
- the Saints are 10-0 ATS in October the last 3 seasons
- metrics have this as Saints -3
- Rams have played with fire multiple times this year (2 pt win vs Packers, 2 pt win vs Seahawks, 3 point win over Broncos) and they’re still undefeated – they’re going to get caught eventually, and New Orleans is playing lights out right now
