Gary’s picks

NFL Football

Week 1!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

49ers @ Vikings (-6)  (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)  

  • Jimmy G went 5-0 as a starter with the 49ers last season, and that hype has gotten us a line under a touchdown
  • The narrative around the Vikings is that they’ve always been “a good QB away.”  Well… they now have Kirk Cousins.
  • RB Dalvin Cook returns, and the 49ers were 22nd in the NFL against the run last year, allowing 116.3 ypg.
  • Vikings led the NFL in total defense (272 ypg) & scoring defense (15.8 ppg) in 2017, and they lost nobody.

 

Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5)  (Thursday / 7:20pm CT / NBC)

  • There is just WAY too much hype on the Falcons coming into Philly on opening night.  Super Bowl champs, in their opening game, are 14-3 straight up the last 17 straight seasons, and 10-5-2 against the spread.
  • The line is shorter because Carson Wentz is still not back… but remember, QB Nick Foles is the one that won Super Bowl MVP.
  • The Eagles roster actually looks a little better than they did last year.  Will the chemistry remain?  We’ll see.
  • The Falcons averaged 8.6ppg vs Eagles, Pats, and Vikings (top 5 defenses) last year.
  • I don’t buy that the Falcons and OC Steve Sarkisian will be able to score enough to cover this spread.

 

Jags @ Giants (+3)  (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)

  • people forget the Jags were 10-6 last season… not 14-2. They’re beatable.
  • Giants will be hyped with new coach Pat Shurmer, new RB Saquon Barkley, and the return of WR OBJ.
  • If the Giants offense is better, the defense will improve because they won’t be on the field as much.
  • I don’t trust Jags QB Blake Bortles.
  • Is Eli Manning going to try and show up Jags CB Jalen Ramsey for his offseason comments?

 

Texans @ Pats (-6)  (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)

  • Patriots’ first game at Foxborough since the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles – Tom Brady and crew will be out to prove a point in game 1.
  • Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson’s first game back after an ACL injury last season.  Belichick with plenty of time to prepare for a 2nd year QB?  I’m rolling with Bill.
  • the metrics (Sagarin, Massey, etc) all say the Pats should be a double digit favorite.

 

Redskins @ Cardinals (PK)  (Sunday / 3:25pm / FOX)

  • Cardinals QB Sam Bradford is healthy… and WR Larry Fitzgerald said he’s the most accurate QB they’ve ever had in Arizona.
  • Cardinals RB David Johnson is back from injury… running game should improve, which will make the defense better by keeping the chains & the clock moving.
  • The Cardinals defense is still legit, and I hate Alex Smith’s weapons in Washington right now (aging Adrian Peterson, Josh Doctson, etc)
  • Cardinals are 15-8-1 Straight Up at home over the last 3 seasons, and they always play better at home.