www.youtube.com/watch?v=VyTS2fNe2vw%5B/embedyt%5D
Gary’s picks
NFL Football
Week 1! To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!
49ers @ Vikings (-6) (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)
- Jimmy G went 5-0 as a starter with the 49ers last season, and that hype has gotten us a line under a touchdown
- The narrative around the Vikings is that they’ve always been “a good QB away.” Well… they now have Kirk Cousins.
- RB Dalvin Cook returns, and the 49ers were 22nd in the NFL against the run last year, allowing 116.3 ypg.
- Vikings led the NFL in total defense (272 ypg) & scoring defense (15.8 ppg) in 2017, and they lost nobody.
Falcons @ Eagles (-2.5) (Thursday / 7:20pm CT / NBC)
- There is just WAY too much hype on the Falcons coming into Philly on opening night. Super Bowl champs, in their opening game, are 14-3 straight up the last 17 straight seasons, and 10-5-2 against the spread.
- The line is shorter because Carson Wentz is still not back… but remember, QB Nick Foles is the one that won Super Bowl MVP.
- The Eagles roster actually looks a little better than they did last year. Will the chemistry remain? We’ll see.
- The Falcons averaged 8.6ppg vs Eagles, Pats, and Vikings (top 5 defenses) last year.
- I don’t buy that the Falcons and OC Steve Sarkisian will be able to score enough to cover this spread.
Jags @ Giants (+3) (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)
- people forget the Jags were 10-6 last season… not 14-2. They’re beatable.
- Giants will be hyped with new coach Pat Shurmer, new RB Saquon Barkley, and the return of WR OBJ.
- If the Giants offense is better, the defense will improve because they won’t be on the field as much.
- I don’t trust Jags QB Blake Bortles.
- Is Eli Manning going to try and show up Jags CB Jalen Ramsey for his offseason comments?
Texans @ Pats (-6) (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)
- Patriots’ first game at Foxborough since the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles – Tom Brady and crew will be out to prove a point in game 1.
- Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson’s first game back after an ACL injury last season. Belichick with plenty of time to prepare for a 2nd year QB? I’m rolling with Bill.
- the metrics (Sagarin, Massey, etc) all say the Pats should be a double digit favorite.
Redskins @ Cardinals (PK) (Sunday / 3:25pm / FOX)
- Cardinals QB Sam Bradford is healthy… and WR Larry Fitzgerald said he’s the most accurate QB they’ve ever had in Arizona.
- Cardinals RB David Johnson is back from injury… running game should improve, which will make the defense better by keeping the chains & the clock moving.
- The Cardinals defense is still legit, and I hate Alex Smith’s weapons in Washington right now (aging Adrian Peterson, Josh Doctson, etc)
- Cardinals are 15-8-1 Straight Up at home over the last 3 seasons, and they always play better at home.
