Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 2!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Nevada @ Vanderbilt (-9) (Saturday / 11am / SEC Network)  

  • the public looked at Nevada putting up 72 points on Portland St last week, and doesn’t buy into Vanderbilt… gives us real value here
  • Vandy crushed MTSU 35-7 last week, and put up 6.29 ypg.  MTSU is now ranked #101 at Massey, while Nevada is only #91.  Vandy is #56.  This score should be similar.
  • Remember, Nevada went 3-9 last year


Kentucky (+14.5) @ Florida (Saturday / 6:30pm / SEC Network)

  • Kentucky gave up only 3.86 yards per play vs Central Michigan last week, and won 35-20 even after losing 4 turnovers
  • Kentucky has this game circled every year – has lost 31 straight times to Florida – but has kept this game within a touchdown 3 of the last 4 years.
  • Florida gave up 5.16 yds per carry to Charleston Southern last week, and 222 rushing yards total, while Kentucky ran for 6.95 ypc and 299 total rushing yards vs Central Michigan last week


Appalachian St (-13.5) @ Charlotte  (Saturday / 5pm / ESPN+)

  • the spread in this one is short due to Charlotte beating Fordham 34-10 last week, and everyone expecting a letdown after App St lost at Penn St in overtime last week
  • Charlotte is 6-39 overall the last 4 years
  • vs FBS schools in 2017, Charlotte averaged only 12.63ppg and were held to 7 points or less 5 times
  • App St had 5.93 ypp vs Penn St, and Charlotte gave up 4.56 ypp to Fordham
  • App St will be fired up to get their first win of the season


Georgia Tech (-3) @ South Florida  (Saturday / 11am / ABC/ESPN2)

  • South Florida lost 3/4 starters from DL and are playing 3 guys with no experience in the back 7
  • Georgia Tech returns 8 starters – key for running the triple option offense, especially early in the season
  • South Florida gave up 192 rushing yards to Elon last week (3.92ypc), gave up 194 yds (4.13ypc) to triple-option Tulane in a 34-28 win last year, and 317 (5.87 ypc) to triple option Navy in ’16
  • Georgia Tech is going to keep the chains moving, and the clock moving, by running all over this inexperienced defense on Saturday morning


Liberty @ Army (-9.5)  (Saturday / 11am / CBS Sports Network)

  • public is all over Liberty after their surprising 52-10 beating of Old Dominion last week and Army’s 34-14 loss at Duke
  • Liberty’s blowout win is deceiving – they scored 4 TDs in the 4th quarter after ODU turnovers and bad decisions to go for it on 4th down deep in their own territory
  • Liberty hasn’t fared well against the triple option, even ending last season with a loss against a weaker FCS team, Charleston Southern, giving up 229 rushing yards (4.79ypc), and 42-28 to Kennesaw St, who ran for 498 yards and 6.5 yards per carry against them.
  • Army’s triple option will overwhelm Liberty, and keep the Flames’ offense off the field.
  • this line opened at -11.5 and has been bet all the way down to – currently – Army -9.  63% of the spread money is on Liberty.  I LOVE going against the public.


Eastern Michigan @ Purdue (-15)  (Saturday / 11am / BTN)

  • Jeff Brohm went 3-0 SU and Against the Spread vs non-conference teams last year in his first season in Purdue, before he had his offensive guys
  • Eastern Michigan gave up 5.5 yards per rush to Monmouth last week, even in a win.  Purdue averaged 8.08 yards per rush vs Northwestern in a loss
  • Purdue lost last year’s opener, and their 2nd game was a 44-21 smashing of MAC team Ohio, who eventually went on to be 8-4 (E Mich is a MAC team)
  • Purdue’s Rondale Moore and DJ Knox are too fast for anybody on E. Michigan’s team.  Look for Purdue to get back to winning ways with a huge offensive performance.


USC @ Stanford (-4)  (Saturday / 7:30pm / FOX)

  • USC QB JT Daniels will get the first road start of his career against Stanford’s stout defense
  • USC’s defense gave up 308 yards rushing, and 7.16 yards per rush, to UNLV last week
  • Stanford RB Bryce Love had a miserable Week 1 vs SDSU & will look to rebound vs a USC defense that, in 2 games last year, allowed him to run for 7.31 yds per rush… on 39 attempts!
  • revenge factor for Stanford, who lost at USC, and to USC in the Pac 12 Championship game last year.
  • Stanford QB KJ Costello is a legit playmaker – went 21/31 for 332 yds with 4 TDs and 1 int last week