Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 3!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Hawaii @ Army (-6.5) (Saturday / 11am / CBS Sports Network)  

  • this game starts at 6am local time in Honolulu!  And a non-stop flight from Honolulu to West Point, NY last 9 hours 30 minutes.  BODY CLOCK GAME.
  • Hawaii is giving up 5.21 yds per run, and they’re giving up 34.7ppg.
  • Even giving up 307 yds passing to Liberty, they still only gave up 14 points last Saturday.

 

Tulane (-4) @ UAB  (Saturday / 12:00pm / Facebook-Stadium)

  • UAB is giving up 5.57 ypc rushing on the season & gave up 296 yds (6.88ypc!) to Coastal Carolina last week
  • Tulane is averaging 5.10 ypc after 2 games… and that’s with about 3 ypc against Wake Forest in week 1
  • Tulane’s triple option will run all over UAB Saturday
  • Willie Fritz is 42-28-3 ATS while Bill Clark is 15-9.  The line is short because UAB went 9-5-1 ATS in 2017 and overperformed.  This one won’t be close.

 

Miami OH @ Minnesota (-14)  (Saturday / 2:30pm / BTN)

  • Since the start of last season, Miami (OH) is 3-11 against the spread, including 0-2 so far this season.
  • Cincinnati beat Miami 21-0 last week, and Minnesota is much more talented than Cinci
  • Minnesota is already 2-0 against the spread this season in 2 wins.
  • Miami is only averaging 3.2 yds per carry this season, and a measly 5.7 yds per pass attempt.  Not good.  To make matters worse, Minnesota is only giving up 2.8ypc and 4.8yppa
  • PJ Fleck and the Gophers are going to cover 14 with ease.

 

Miami FL @ Toledo (+10)   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN2)

  • Toledo’s fans will pack their stadium out for this one, so it should make for a pretty hostile environment.
  • Mark Richt is 6-9 ATS since the beginning of 2017, and are only 2-2 against the spread as a road favorite in that span
  • advanced metrics say that Miami should only be about a 6 or 7 point favorite in this game, and a lot of efficiency metrics say that Toledo should win this game straight up.

 

Oregon St (+4) @ Nevada   (Saturday / 6pm / espn3)

  • Oregon St’s offense is significantly improved under new head coach, and former Washington OC, Jonathan Smith
  • Oregon st is averaging 6.6 yds per carry and 8.8 yds per pass attempt – it was 5.0 ypc and 14.0 yppa at Ohio St (571 yds total)!
  • Nevada is still getting value from their 72-19 win over Portland St, who is awful.  Remember, Nevada was 3-9 in 2017!

 

Oklahoma (-17.5) @ Iowa St   (Saturday / 11am / ABC)

  • Iowa St beat Oklahoma 48-41 in Norman last season.  The game is in Aimes this year.
  • This season, however, Iowa St only scored 3 points in their first game of the season at Iowa in a 13-3 loss.
  • Sr QB Kyle Kempt is out for this game for Iowa St – replaced by Zeb Noland, who went 4/10 for 43 yds passing vs Iowa
  • Noland’s stats in backup duty in 2017: 36/66 533 yds, 2 TDs, 1 int vs Northern Iowa, Kansas, Oklahoma St, @ Baylor
  • this is a revenge game, and Lincoln Riley strikes me as the kinda guy that will take losses personally and try to embarrass teams the next time around, if he can.  I think he can here.

 

Boston College @ Wake Forest (+7)   (Thursday / 5:30pm / ESPN)

  • Wake Forest’s defense is actually pretty good, only giving up 3.06 yds per carry, and they held Tulane – a triple option team – to only 155 yds rushing
  • Never bet against a home underdog on Thursday night on ESPN!  Those underdogs of 6.5 points or more are 14-2 against the number since 2013
  • Weeknight home underdogs – Monday through Friday – are 190-144 ATS since 2005.
  • Wake Forest is 2-0-1 ATS as a home dog since 2016.