Week 4! To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!
Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (+8) (Saturday / 11am / ABC)
- Notre Dame’s only spread cover this year was a win over Michigan…and they won that one in the first half. Haven’t looked good since.
- Wake will be fired up after losing a close game at home to a good Boston College team last week
- Notre Dame is only averaging 3.63 yds per run this year
- Wake is 7-4 ATS after a loss since 2016, and with last week’s push, they’re 2-0-2 as a home underdog in that span
- last year, at Notre Dame, Wake lost 48-37, but still racked up 239 yds rushing and 348 yds passing on ND’s vaunted defense
Kansas St (+16.5) @ West Virginia (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)
- the last 4 games in this series have been decided by less than a touchdown
- Kansas St is 18-8 ATS as a road dog since 2010, and West Virginia is only 19-23 as a home favorite in that span
- Kansas St’s overall numbers – through 3 games – are a bit skewed because of the Mississippi St game
- West Virginia didn’t play last week because of Hurricane Florence – WVU is 3-11 ATS after a bye under Dana Holgorsen
- Bill Snyder got K-State back to normal a bit in week 3 vs UTSA, averaging 7.13 yds per play in a 41-17 win
NC State (-6.5) @ Marshall (Saturday / 6pm / CBSSN)
- Both teams had games canceled last week because of the hurricane. Since 2013, NC State is 9-2 ATS the week after a bye, and Marshall is 6-2.
- As a road favorite, Dave Doeren and NC State are 7-2-1 since 2013 (when he took the job)
- Marshall gave up 6.08 ypp to Miami OH (who is awful) and Marshall is only averaging 5.70ypp.
- Analytics call for NC State to win by 3 TDs, so the fact that this is under a TD looks like a gift here
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St (-13) (Saturday / 6pm / FS1)
- Ole Miss – a team that had not had a 200 yard rusher since 2010 – had a guy run for 200+ yds vs Texas Tech
- Oklahoma St’s Justice Hill is averaging 8.15 yds per carry, including 8.20 yds average on 15 carries vs Boise St.
- Oklahoma St’s defense is vastly improved under former Duke DC Jim Knowles
- In 3 games, OK St has 16 sacks, 32 TFLs, and is only giving up 3.98 yds per play, including only 2.11 yds per carry on 105 attempts
- Oklahoma St will win this by 3 TDs at least.
East Carolina (+22) @ South Florida (Saturday / 7pm / ESPNNews)
- since coming to South Florida in 2018, Charlie Strong’s Bulls are only 5-8 ATS as a favorite, and 3-4 as a home favorite
- ECU was off last week because of the hurricane, but the week before, they beat UNC 41-19, averaging 6.22 yds per play
- USF is giving up almost 6 yds per play, and has given up over 800 rushing yards on the year – ECU gained 220 rushing yards on North Carolina, who held Cal to only 160 on the same 49 attempts (3.27 yds per rush).
- all my metrics have this anywhere from a 12 to 15 point spread, so getting more than 3 touchdowns looks crazy here
Stanford (-2) @ Oregon (Saturday / 7pm / ABC)
- the public LOVES betting on Oregon… but since Marcus Mariota left after the 2014 season, the Ducks are 15-25-1 against the spread
- David Shaw, in that same time span, is 26-17-1 ATS
- Oregon is giving up 226 yds passing per game, including 7.1 ypc passing – Stanford QB KJ Costello will be able to take advantage of that, as he’s throwing for almost a 60% completion percentage for 729 yds, along with 7 TDs and 3 ints.
- Oregon has played absolutely nobody to prepare them for this game – Average Sagarin rating of opponents: Stanford – 76, Oregon – 171.
Wisconsin @ Iowa (+3.5) (Saturday / 7:30pm / FOX)
- Iowa is 3-0 ATS, while Wisconsin has under performed and, honestly, disappointed, going 0-3 ATS so far this year, after going 9-5 ATS in 2017
- Iowa is giving up only 8 ppg, and Wisconsin is giving up 13.7 ppg. The most interesting matchup will be Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor, who is averaging 8+ yds per carry, while Iowa’s defense is giving up only 1.54 yds per run.
- The thing I love most about this is that, according to VegasInsider.com, 54% of the spread bets – and 98% of the money – has come in on Wisconsin early this week… yet the line went down from WI -3.5 to -3, which says they’re wanting people to take Wisconsin on this one. I absolutely love Iowa here.