Gary’s 2018 Week 4 College Football Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 4!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Notre Dame @ Wake Forest (+8)  (Saturday / 11am / ABC)  

  • Notre Dame’s only spread cover this year was a win over Michigan…and they won that one in the first half.  Haven’t looked good since.
  • Wake will be fired up after losing a close game at home to a good Boston College team last week
  • Notre Dame is only averaging 3.63 yds per run this year
  • Wake is 7-4 ATS after a loss since 2016, and with last week’s push, they’re 2-0-2 as a home underdog in that span
  • last year, at Notre Dame, Wake lost 48-37, but still racked up 239 yds rushing and 348 yds passing on ND’s vaunted defense

 

Kansas St (+16.5) @ West Virginia  (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)  

  • the last 4 games in this series have been decided by less than a touchdown
  • Kansas St is 18-8 ATS as a road dog since 2010, and West Virginia is only 19-23 as a home favorite in that span
  • Kansas St’s overall numbers – through 3 games – are a bit skewed because of the Mississippi St game
  • West Virginia didn’t play last week because of Hurricane Florence – WVU is 3-11 ATS after a bye under Dana Holgorsen
  • Bill Snyder got K-State back to normal a bit in week 3 vs UTSA, averaging 7.13 yds per play in a 41-17 win

 

NC State (-6.5) @ Marshall  (Saturday / 6pm / CBSSN)  

  • Both teams had games canceled last week because of the hurricane.  Since 2013, NC State is 9-2 ATS the week after a bye, and Marshall is 6-2.
  • As a road favorite, Dave Doeren and NC State are 7-2-1 since 2013 (when he took the job)
  • Marshall gave up 6.08 ypp to Miami OH (who is awful) and Marshall is only averaging 5.70ypp.
  • Analytics call for NC State to win by 3 TDs, so the fact that this is under a TD looks like a gift here

 

Texas Tech @ Oklahoma St (-13)  (Saturday / 6pm / FS1)  

  • Ole Miss – a team that had not had a 200 yard rusher since 2010 – had a guy run for 200+ yds vs Texas Tech
  • Oklahoma St’s Justice Hill is averaging 8.15 yds per carry, including 8.20 yds average on 15 carries vs Boise St.
  • Oklahoma St’s defense is vastly improved under former Duke DC Jim Knowles
  • In 3 games, OK St has 16 sacks, 32 TFLs, and is only giving up 3.98 yds per play, including only 2.11 yds per carry on 105 attempts
  • Oklahoma St will win this by 3 TDs at least.

 

East Carolina (+22) @ South Florida  (Saturday / 7pm / ESPNNews)  

  • since coming to South Florida in 2018, Charlie Strong’s Bulls are only 5-8 ATS as a favorite, and 3-4 as a home favorite
  • ECU was off last week because of the hurricane, but the week before, they beat UNC 41-19, averaging 6.22 yds per play
  • USF is giving up almost 6 yds per play, and has given up over 800 rushing yards on the year – ECU gained 220 rushing yards on North Carolina, who held Cal to only 160 on the same 49 attempts (3.27 yds per rush).
  • all my metrics have this anywhere from a 12 to 15 point spread, so getting more than 3 touchdowns looks crazy here

 

Stanford (-2) @ Oregon  (Saturday / 7pm / ABC)  

  • the public LOVES betting on Oregon… but since Marcus Mariota left after the 2014 season, the Ducks are 15-25-1 against the spread
  • David Shaw, in that same time span, is 26-17-1 ATS
  • Oregon is giving up 226 yds passing per game, including 7.1 ypc passing – Stanford QB KJ Costello will be able to take advantage of that, as he’s throwing for almost a 60% completion percentage for 729 yds, along with 7 TDs and 3 ints.
  • Oregon has played absolutely nobody to prepare them for this game – Average Sagarin rating of opponents: Stanford – 76, Oregon – 171.

 

Wisconsin @ Iowa (+3.5)   (Saturday / 7:30pm / FOX)  

  • Iowa is 3-0 ATS, while Wisconsin has under performed and, honestly, disappointed, going 0-3 ATS so far this year, after going 9-5 ATS in 2017
  • Iowa is giving up only 8 ppg, and Wisconsin is giving up 13.7 ppg.  The most interesting matchup will be Wisconsin RB Jonathan Taylor, who is averaging 8+ yds per carry, while Iowa’s defense is giving up only 1.54 yds per run.
  • The thing I love most about this is that, according to VegasInsider.com, 54% of the spread bets – and 98% of the money – has come in on Wisconsin early this week… yet the line went down from WI -3.5 to -3, which says they’re wanting people to take Wisconsin on this one.   I absolutely love Iowa here.


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About Gary Segars 601 Articles
Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous MemphisTider.com blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site RollBamaRoll.com.After diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of WinningCuresEverything.com in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: gary@winningcureseverything.com Twitter: @GaryWCE