Gary’s 2018 Week 4 NFL Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

NFL Football

Week 4!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Bills (+10) @ Packers   (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)  

  • confidence can do amazing things, and last week’s blowout win of Minnesota provided plenty of that for Buffalo
  • all my metrics say this should only be a 3-5 pt line… not double digits
  • Green Bay got humbled last week at Washington
  • Packers only run for 89 yds per game, and Buffalo only gives up 80 rushing yards per game.


Texans @ Colts (-2)   (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)  

  • until the Texans stop making terrible mistakes, I gotta go against them, and especially on the road at a division rival
  • Colts are only giving up 4.1 yds per run & 6.5 yds per pass attempt – Texans are giving up 7.9 yppa, so Andrew Luck should have success against this defense
  • Colts are 2-1 against the spread this year, while the Texans are 0-3
  • my metrics say Colts -4, so a line as short as 2 is a gift


Jets @ Jaguars   (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)  

  • the Jaguars looked like they overlooked a Titans team dealing with injuries last week & got embarrassed.  They’ll be looking to prove a point this week.
  • Sam Darnold – a rookie – against that Jags defense looks like a mismatch & could account for some easy Jags points
  • both teams are only giving up 5.5 yppa, so this game will come down to defense and the running game, and I trust the Jaguars O-Line more than the Jets


Bucs (+3) @ Bears   (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)  

  • my metrics say the Bucs should be favored by 1 pt – so, wrong team favored?
  • Fitzpatrick has thrown for over 400 yds in 3 straight games – that’s never happened in the history of the NFL
  • Bears are still having trouble scoring
  • Bucs biggest weakness is pass defense, but the Bears are only averaging 178 passing yds per game (only 5.1 ypa)


Vikings (+7) @ Rams   (Thursday / 7:20pm CT / FOX)  

  • Vikings held out Dalvin Cook vs Bills to rest up for Rams game – got caught looking ahead
  • Vikings sit at 1-1-1, should be 3-0, and know they have to win this one
  • Rams haven’t played a passing game, or a defense, anything close to what the Vikings bring in
About Gary Segars 1163 Articles
Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: Twitter: @GaryWCE