Week 4! To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!
Bills (+10) @ Packers (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)
- confidence can do amazing things, and last week’s blowout win of Minnesota provided plenty of that for Buffalo
- all my metrics say this should only be a 3-5 pt line… not double digits
- Green Bay got humbled last week at Washington
- Packers only run for 89 yds per game, and Buffalo only gives up 80 rushing yards per game.
Texans @ Colts (-2) (Sunday / 12pm CT / CBS)
- until the Texans stop making terrible mistakes, I gotta go against them, and especially on the road at a division rival
- Colts are only giving up 4.1 yds per run & 6.5 yds per pass attempt – Texans are giving up 7.9 yppa, so Andrew Luck should have success against this defense
- Colts are 2-1 against the spread this year, while the Texans are 0-3
- my metrics say Colts -4, so a line as short as 2 is a gift
Jets @ Jaguars (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)
- the Jaguars looked like they overlooked a Titans team dealing with injuries last week & got embarrassed. They’ll be looking to prove a point this week.
- Sam Darnold – a rookie – against that Jags defense looks like a mismatch & could account for some easy Jags points
- both teams are only giving up 5.5 yppa, so this game will come down to defense and the running game, and I trust the Jaguars O-Line more than the Jets
Bucs (+3) @ Bears (Sunday / 12pm CT / FOX)
- my metrics say the Bucs should be favored by 1 pt – so, wrong team favored?
- Fitzpatrick has thrown for over 400 yds in 3 straight games – that’s never happened in the history of the NFL
- Bears are still having trouble scoring
- Bucs biggest weakness is pass defense, but the Bears are only averaging 178 passing yds per game (only 5.1 ypa)
Vikings (+7) @ Rams (Thursday / 7:20pm CT / FOX)
- Vikings held out Dalvin Cook vs Bills to rest up for Rams game – got caught looking ahead
- Vikings sit at 1-1-1, should be 3-0, and know they have to win this one
- Rams haven’t played a passing game, or a defense, anything close to what the Vikings bring in