Gary’s 2018 Week 5 College Football Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 5!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Army (+9) @ Buffalo   (Saturday / 11am / CBSSN)  

  • Army averages over 40 mins time of possession per game, and are converting 52% on 3rd down, compared to Buffalo, who is barely averaging 30 mins and 40% 3rd down conversions.
  • Buffalo gave up an average of 5.62 yds per play vs Temple and Eastern Michigan (the two best teams they’ve played
  • Buffalo is getting hype for thrashing Rutgers last week 42-13.
  • Army is 7-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of 2017
  • my metrics say Buffalo should be around a 1 point favorite.  9 points is absurd.

 

West Virginia @ Texas Tech (+3.5)   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN2)  

  • Texas Tech’s defense has drastically improved over the last 2 seasons.  They’re still not great, but it’s serviceable.  This year in road/neutral site games, TTU is giving up 7.64 yds per play, but at home, it drops to 4.94.
  • This is West Virginia’s first road game, and they have not played a single threatening passing attack so far
  • my metrics say Texas Tech should actually be favored by about 0.5 pts, not including home field advantage

 

Temple (+14) @ Boston College   (Saturday / 11am / ESPNU)  

  • in the last 2 games (vs Maryland and Tulsa), Temple is giving up only 3.76 ypp, and their offense is gaining 5.31 yds per play
  • Boston College showed last week that their offense can be schemed against – Purdue held them to 229 yds total offense & 3.63ypp
  • my metrics say Boston College should only be favored by about 6 pts here

 

ULM @ Georgia St (+7.5)   (Saturday / 1pm / ESPN+)

  • both of these teams have underperformed against good teams, and are average vs G5 competition
  • Georgia St, behind QB Dan Ellington, should be able to keep this within a TD
  • my metrics have ULM as only a 1 point favorite

 

Old Dominion @ East Carolina (-7)   (Saturday / 11am / CBSSN)  

  • Old Dominion’s win over Virginia Tech last week gave us a favorable line here
  • ODU still gives up over 500 ypg and over 35 ppg
  • ECU beat an ACC team earlier this season as well
  • ECU will score a ton of points, and now that there’s film on backup QB LaRussa, I don’t think ODU’s offense will be able to keep up
  • my metrics say ECU should be favored by more than 11 points

 

UTEP @ UTSA (-10)   (Saturday / 6pm / ESPN+)  

  • UTSA has improved their rushing yards in all 4 games this season, and are currently around 3.6 yds per run (started with 34 rushes for 2 total yds at Arizona St in week 1)
  • UTEP is 1-3 ATS while UTSA is 0-4… but UTSA is 1-3 SU, while UTEP is 0-4.
  • Both teams are pretty bad this year… I picked this game because my metrics called for UTSA to be a 17.5 pt favorite, and it’s only a 10 point line

 

Oregon @ Cal (+3.5)   (Saturday / 9:30pm / FS1)  

  • Cal is 8-3 as an underdog under head coach Justin Wilcox
  • Cal is at home, off a bye week, while Oregon is coming off of a heartbreaking overtime loss at home to Stanford
  • Oregon played REALLY weak competition before playing Stanford… and then gave up 7.96 yds per play to the Cardinal.
  • my metrics say that Cal should be favored by 2 points in this one, so catching more than a field goal at home is a must play


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About Gary Segars 572 Articles
Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous MemphisTider.com blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site RollBamaRoll.com.After diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of WinningCuresEverything.com in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: gary@winningcureseverything.com Twitter: @GaryWCE