Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 6!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Texas (+7.5) vs Oklahoma   (Saturday / 11am / FOX)  

  • Neutral site game every year – 50% Texas fans / 50 % Oklahoma.
  • both teams are 2-3 ATS this season
  • Tom Herman is 22-1 ATS as an underdog in his career (asst coach to head coach) 
  • Texas is 5-0 ATS vs Oklahoma the last 5 years, with 2 outright wins
  • the actual numbers lean Oklahoma to cover… but they’ve done that the last 5 years.

Georgia Tech @ Louisville (+3.5)   (Friday / 6pm / ESPN)

  • Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS as a road favorite since 2015 (0-2 this year with straight up losses at South Florida and at Pitt)
  • Louisville is a weeknight home underdog on ESPN
  • both teams are only 1-4 ATS this season
  • Louisville should be able to score on GT’s defense, and will have an intense week of practice after giving away the game to Florida St last week

East Carolina @ Temple (-11.5)   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN News)

  • Temple is 15-3 ATS vs conference opponents in their last 18 games
  • ECU is 0-8 ATS in road games with 6 days or less rest in the last 3 seasons
  • Temple’s defense has shown up the last 3 weeks & are only giving up 187 yds passing per game (which is East Carolina’s strength)

Iowa (-6) @ Minnesota   (Saturday / 2:30pm / BTN)

  • I think Iowa has the better players at every single position on the field
  • Iowa is coming off a bye, while Minnesota got routed 42-13 at Maryland last week
  • Minnesota’s defense is giving up almost 5 yds per rush (and they gave up 315 yds rushing to Maryland)
  • Minnesota’s offense is only generating 4.7 ypp
  • Minnesota has lost 2 major contributors (RB Rodney Smith & S Antoine Winfield
  • Iowa is only giving up 1.3 yds per rush to every opponent not named Wisconsin
  • since 2015, Iowa is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite

Kentucky (+5.5) @ Texas A&M   (Saturday / 6pm / ESPN)

  • Kentucky is 7-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2016
  • Texas A&M is only 3-5-1 ATS as a home underdog in SEC games since 2012
  • Kentucky’s turnover margin is 0, while A&M’s is -5.
  • Both teams can move the ball (A&M: 6.7ypp, KY: 6.2ypp), but Kentucky’s defense only gives up 4.4ypp while A&M gives up 6.3ypp

Nebraska @ Wisconsin (-20.5)   (Saturday / 6:30pm / BTN)

  • Wisconsin is 7-1 ATS at home after a bye
  • Nebraska is 0-4 ATS this season, and they’re giving up 5.6ypp
  • Michigan’s defense held Nebraska’s offense to 132 yds of total offense… not saying Wisconsin’s defense is as good as Michigan’s, but they could do very similar
  • Wisconsin is +4 in turnover margin, while Nebraska is -6
  • Wisconsin only gives up 14.5 pts per game, while Nebraska gives up 38.8ppg

Washington (-21) @ UCLA   (Saturday / 6:30pm / FOX)

  • since 2015, UCLA has been a home underdog only 3 times, and they’re 0-3 ATS in those games
  • Washington is 5-2 ATS as a road favorite in their last 7
  • UCLA is giving up 7.9 yds per play, while Washington only gives up 4.2
  • Washington has given up a TD or less 3 times this year, and no more than 21 points (that was to Auburn in Atlanta) – UCLA is only averaging 17 pts per game.