Gary’s 2018 Week 7 College Football Picks (Against the Spread)

Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 7!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

 

 

Iowa (-4.5) @ Indiana   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN2)  

  • line opened Iowa -6 and was bet down to -4.5
  • metrics say Iowa should win by 9.4
  • Haven’t played since 2015, but Iowa has won and covered the last 2 spreads (2014 & 2015)
  • Iowa is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite
  • Indiana is 1-9 straight up, and 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog

Nebraska @ Northwestern (-5.5)   (Saturday / 11am / ABC)

  • Northwestern is 11-1 ATS vs Big 10 opponents the last 2 seasons
  • line opened at -8.5, I grabbed it when it dropped to -5.5, and it’s now at -3.5.
  • Metrics say Northwestern should win this one by 13.4
  • Northwestern is 47th in the country against the run, giving up only 4.01 yds per carry – Nebraska is much more run heavy than passing
  • Nebraska is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 vs the Big 10

Troy @ Liberty (+10)   (Saturday / 1pm / ESPN3)

  • Troy is only 6-4 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite, and they just lost their starting QB to a knee injury
  • Troy is 90th in the country against the pass, and Liberty is 7th in the country in passing offense
  • my metrics had Troy as only a 13 point favorite, but that was before their QB went out

Army (-14) @ San Jose St  (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPNU)

  • my metrics have Army favored by 22
  • San Jose St is the last ranked team in the country in total rushing yards – if they can’t stay on the field, Army will keep the ball for 50+ minutes
  • San Jose St is only giving up 3.75 yds per rush… but they’ve played no real rushing teams
    • Washington St (#129)
    • Oregon (#30… the week before Stanford)
    • Hawaii (#93)
    • Colorado St (#119)
  • San Jose St only averages [26:28] time of possession

Temple (-5.5) @ Navy   (Saturday / 2:30pm / CBSSN)

  • Temple is 16-3 ATS in their last 19 vs AAC conference teams
  • Temple is 8-2 ATS vs Navy in their last 10 meetings
  • Temple is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite
  • Navy is 2nd in the country in rushing offense, but Temple is giving up only 3.7 yds per carry
  • metrics say Temple should be favored -8.5

West Virginia @ Iowa St (+7)   (Saturday / 6pm / FS1)

  • this line opened West Virginia -4.5, and was bet up to 7 within 24 hours
  • metrics say West Virginia -1.5, but we’re getting a touchdown
  • Iowa St is 6-2-2 in their last 10 as a home underdog
  • West Virginia has covered 4 in a row against Iowa St, but the line has been incredibly close each time.  Getting this many points is helpful
  • I think Iowa St can win this game outright.

Colorado (+7) @ USC   (Saturday / 9:30pm / FS1)

  • Colorado is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog
  • Colorado has the #23 passing offense in the country – USC the #52 passing defense, and USC has given up over 6.5 yds/att to everyone except UNLV (an option team)
  • USC is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite
  • the metrics say USC should only be -2 in this one, not -7.  Colorado is the play.


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About Gary Segars 599 Articles
Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous MemphisTider.com blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site RollBamaRoll.com.After diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of WinningCuresEverything.com in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: gary@winningcureseverything.com Twitter: @GaryWCE