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Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 7!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

Iowa (-4.5) @ Indiana   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN2)  

• line opened Iowa -6 and was bet down to -4.5
• metrics say Iowa should win by 9.4
• Haven’t played since 2015, but Iowa has won and covered the last 2 spreads (2014 & 2015)
• Iowa is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite
• Indiana is 1-9 straight up, and 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog

Nebraska @ Northwestern (-5.5)   (Saturday / 11am / ABC)

• Northwestern is 11-1 ATS vs Big 10 opponents the last 2 seasons
• line opened at -8.5, I grabbed it when it dropped to -5.5, and it’s now at -3.5.
• Metrics say Northwestern should win this one by 13.4
• Northwestern is 47th in the country against the run, giving up only 4.01 yds per carry – Nebraska is much more run heavy than passing
• Nebraska is 3-7 against the spread in their last 10 vs the Big 10

Troy @ Liberty (+10)   (Saturday / 1pm / ESPN3)

• Troy is only 6-4 ATS in their last 10 as a road favorite, and they just lost their starting QB to a knee injury
• Troy is 90th in the country against the pass, and Liberty is 7th in the country in passing offense
• my metrics had Troy as only a 13 point favorite, but that was before their QB went out

Army (-14) @ San Jose St  (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPNU)

• my metrics have Army favored by 22
• San Jose St is the last ranked team in the country in total rushing yards – if they can’t stay on the field, Army will keep the ball for 50+ minutes
• San Jose St is only giving up 3.75 yds per rush… but they’ve played no real rushing teams
  • Washington St (#129)
  • Oregon (#30… the week before Stanford)
  • Hawaii (#93)
  • Colorado St (#119)
• San Jose St only averages 26:28 time of possession

Temple (-5.5) @ Navy   (Saturday / 2:30pm / CBSSN)

• Temple is 16-3 ATS in their last 19 vs AAC conference teams
• Temple is 8-2 ATS vs Navy in their last 10 meetings
• Temple is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite
• Navy is 2nd in the country in rushing offense, but Temple is giving up only 3.7 yds per carry
• metrics say Temple should be favored -8.5

West Virginia @ Iowa St (+7)   (Saturday / 6pm / FS1)

• this line opened West Virginia -4.5, and was bet up to 7 within 24 hours
• metrics say West Virginia -1.5, but we’re getting a touchdown
• Iowa St is 6-2-2 in their last 10 as a home underdog
• West Virginia has covered 4 in a row against Iowa St, but the line has been incredibly close each time.  Getting this many points is helpful
• I think Iowa St can win this game outright.

Colorado (+7) @ USC   (Saturday / 9:30pm / FS1)

• Colorado is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog
• Colorado has the #23 passing offense in the country – USC the #52 passing defense, and USC has given up over 6.5 yds/att to everyone except UNLV (an option team)
• USC is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite
• the metrics say USC should only be -2 in this one, not -7.  Colorado is the play.