Gary’s picks

College Football

Week 8!  To keep up with our record for the year, along with results from each game we pick, please visit our Gambling Picks page!

 

 

Maryland @ Iowa (-12) (currently -9.5)   (Saturday / 11am / ESPN2)  

  • Iowa is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite
  • Maryland is 3-6 ATS in their last 9 as a road underdog
  • Iowa is 5-1 ATS this year
  • Metrics have Iowa as 14.6 pt favorites
  • the public is all over Maryland right now, which makes me feel even better about this game
  • Maryland, aside from the win over Texas in the 1st game, has gotten hammered by Temple and Michigan.  Their wins have been over these teams:
    • Bowling Green (1-5)
    • Minnesota (3-3, who is on a 3 game losing streak since losing their star running back)
    • Rutgers (1-6)
  • gimme the Hawkeyes all day

 

Miami (OH) @ Army (-9) (currently -8)   (Saturday / 11am / CBSSN)

  • a non-conference game for Miami (OH), who will probably not put too much effort into this game because they’re in their conference race, and they have to play Buffalo next
  • oddsmakers still have not caught up to Army.  The Cadets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games
  • metrics have Army winning this game by 16

 

Eastern Michigan (-4.5) @ Ball St (currently EMU -3)   (Saturday / 2pm / ESPN+)

  • last 3 seasons, Eastern Michigan is 8-0 ATS in October road games
  • EMU is 14-3 on the road since 2016
  • Ball St is only 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home underdog
  • metrics have Eastern Michigan winning by 7

 

NC State (+17) @ Clemson  (Saturday / 2:30pm / ESPN)

  • my metrics have Clemson only favored by 14
  • Clemson is 7-11-1 ATS in their last 19 as a home favorite (0-3 ATS in 2018)
  • NC State is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs Clemson, including covering the last 2 years
  • Clemson has trouble with teams that can throw the football (Texas A&M, Syracuse) – NC State is #6 in the country in passing offense

 

Oregon @ Washington St (+2) (currently -3)   (Saturday / 6:30pm / FOX)

  • Washington St is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home underdog
  • WSU is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, including 6-0 this year
  • since 2016, Oregon is 3-11-1 ATS after a win, and 3-8-1 as a road team
  • with College Gameday in town, the Ducks are going into a buzzsaw in Pullman, WA.  Homefield advantage will be intense.

  Vanderbilt @ Kentucky (-11.5)   (Saturday / 6:30pm / SECN)

  • Kentucky is 2-0 SU & ATS vs Vandy in their last 2 meetings, including a 44-21 beatdown in Nashville in 2017
  • Vandy is 1-9-1 ATS vs SEC teams since 2017
  • Vandy is giving up an average of 280+ rushing yds per game in those 9 losses & 1 push
  • Vandy can’t stop the run, Kentucky is coming off a bye… this should be a blood bath

Fresno St (-15) @ New Mexico (currently Fresno -13.5)  (Saturday / 7:30pm / ESPNU)

  • Fresno St is 16-3-1 ATS in their last 20 games
  • New Mexico is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games
  • metrics have Fresno St -18
  • Jeff Tedford and his defense will keep things rolling, and they should beat up on this New Mexico team, even on the road