GET THAT MONEY: CFB & NFL gambling picks (10/19/17)

Listen to Podcast 148 to get all of these picks and more reasons behind them:

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Biggest Games of the Weekend (Straight Up)

 

GET THAT MONEY

Gary & Chris Gambling Picks

Gary’s picks

College Football

Marshall (-2.5) @ MTSU

  • Marshall has been blowing teams out.  I know you guys think me picking these smaller games is ridiculous, but if you win, it still pays the same.  Marshall has a great offense.  MTSU has been hitting the skids lately.  They’ve lost their QB.  Marshall has been rolling, and they’ll continue here.

Tulsa (-6) @ UConn

  • UConn’s offense has picked up this season, but Tulsa has figured things out on offense, and that’s not good for UConn, who has given up 70 to Memphis (at home), 49 at SMU, 41 at home to a not-great East Carolina team, etc.  Tulsa may be 2-5, but 3 of their losses were to triple option teams, and another was to Oklahoma St.  They roundhouse kicked Houston in the teeth last week, 45-17, including 288 yards on the ground, and I would look for them to roll up the yardage, and the points, against the Huskies.

West Virginia (-9) @ Baylor

  • This line looks a little fishy to me, but I love this West Virginia offense a little too much to not take them at under 10 points here.  West Virginia is 5th in the country in total offense.  They’ve lost 2 games, by identical 31-24 scores, at TCU, and in a neutral site game against Virginia Tech.  Those two teams have good defenses (TCU #31, VaTech #23).  Baylor isn’t close to that.  Baylor is #126 out of 130 teams in the FBS in total defense.  Toss in there that Baylor has the #95 rushing offense in the country, and West Virginia is only giving up 2.73 yds per rush their last two games… well, Baylor can’t hold on to the football, and West Virginia is going to score A LOT of points.  This has all the makings of a blowout, even if the game is in Waco.

UCF (-6.5) @ Navy

  • UCF is the only team in the country averaging over 50 ppg.  Navy isn’t far behind at 35.5 ppg.  But here’s the difference.  UCF is #29 in total defense, giving up only 333 ypg (and a little over 100 yards rushing per game), while Navy is is #18 in total offense.  Navy is #78 in total defense, giving up almost 400 ypg, and UCF is #5 in total offense, including over 320 ypg passing, and over 225 ypg rushing.  UCF is the most balanced G5 team in the country, and they’ll cover 6.5 with ease at Navy, who just took their first loss of the season, 30-27 at Memphis last week.

Kentucky (+10.5) @ Mississippi St

  • Everyone seems to believe that Mississippi State is going to run Kentucky off the field in Starkville Saturday night.  But here’s the deal – Kentucky is #10 in the country against the run this year, giving up about 97 ypg rushing.  If you force Mississippi State to throw the football, you can beat them.  That’s what Kentucky’s going to do.  Kentucky only gives up 3.35 yds per carry… the only games Miss St has averaged less than 5 yards per carry were against Auburn (49-10 loss, 4.13 ypc) and Georgia (31-3 loss, 4.78 ypc).  Now, Miss St may very well win this game, but more than 10 points just seems like too much here, especially when Kentucky’s strength is stopping what Miss St does best on offense.

NFL

Cardinals @ Rams (-3.5)

  • The Rams lead the league in points per game.  The Cardinals are 20th in points per game.  Yes, the Cards looked better in Adrian Peterson’s first game back, but they also gave up a 31-6 lead on Tampa Bay, who was running a backup qb (due to Jameis Winston’s injury), and had to squeak out a 38-33 win.  The Rams defense is better at creating turnovers, and I look for Wade Phillips’ bunch to create some Carson Palmer picks in this game and get some easy points.  I don’t expect a blowout here, but I think the Rams win by at least a touchdown.

Bengals (+5.5) @ Steelers

  • The Bengals started out 0-3, fired their OC after the 2nd game… and the offense has come alive in their last 3 games, which were an OT loss at Green Bay, and wins over Cleveland and Buffalo.  The Steelers have been Jeckyl and Hyde, going from losing at the Bears, to blowing out Baltimore, to getting blown out at home by the Jaguars, to beating the previously undefeated Chiefs in Arrowhead last week.  This appears to be the week that the Steelers would lay an egg.  This is the 2nd and 3rd best defenses in the league, and 2 offenses that rank in the 20s.  I think we’ve got a field goal game on our hands, either direction.

Jaguars (-3) @ Colts 

  • The Jags lead the league in rushing, and lead the league in creating turnovers.  The Colts have the worst defense in the NFL.  The Jags lost last week, which means they’ll win this week (go look at their schedule… that’s the trend here), and, while I love Jacoby Brissett in Indy, he’s thrown 3 picks, and lost 1 fumble in his 5 games this year.  The Jags are +10 in turnover differential… the Colts are -1.  Look for that, along with the Jags rushing attack, to be the difference in this one.  Lay the points… the Jags win by 10 points.

Gary Segars

Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous MemphisTider.com blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site RollBamaRoll.com.After diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of WinningCuresEverything.com in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: gary@winningcureseverything.com Twitter: @GaryWCE