The playoffs started out hot for me, going 3-1 on Wild Card weekend, then 2-2 on divisional weekend, but I lost both the AFC & NFC Championship games, which gave Chris a chance to tie me up, after he opened 0-4 on the wild card weekend.
I went into the championships games 5-3 against the spread in the playoffs, and Chris went in 2-6. After he won both games, he now sits at 4-6, while I’m sitting at 5-5.
And it all comes down to this. Super Bowl 51 will decide whether we tie each other and both finish below .500 against the number in the playoffs, or if I take a 6-5 record to Chris’s 4-7.
If you have not listened to our Friday podcast, we explain our picks for several Super Bowl prop bets, along with these picks for the Super Bowl. You can listen to the podcast here: soundcloud.com/winningcureseverything/episode-58-feb-2nd-2017
So let’s get to it.
Chris’s pick: Patriots -3 / Under 59
Chris believes this game will be lower scoring than the public seems to think. Super Bowl coaches tend to play things close to the vest and not take a lot of risks. While teams tend to be more aggressive early in the playoffs, and some teams, especially big time offenses, can get in a rhythm, the week off before the game can really put a wrench in that rhythm. This is only the Falcons 2nd Super Bowl in history, and the Patriots have been here now 7 times with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. You can never underestimate how important experience can be in big game situations.
Chris also takes a look at historical data, and no #1 ranked offense has ever won the Super Bowl. He thinks the Patriots will be able to slow down the Falcons offense, and, according to reports, Falcons coach Dan Quinn wants to try and defend the Patriots the same way they did when he was at Seattle, which was with a lot of zone looks. And that works when you’ve got a monster front seven on defense, which the Falcons do not have. Chris thinks Brady will pick apart that defense and easily cover the 3 point line, while keeping the total under 59.
Gary’s pick: Falcons +3 / Under 59
I understand all of where Chris is coming from, but this Falcons team is red hot right now, and will definitely be the best team the Pats have faced all season. Pittsburgh had hit a wall offensively before they went into Foxboro 2 weekends ago, as evidence by not scoring a single touchdown in a win at Kansas City. Things didn’t get much better when their star running back, Leveon Bell, went down in the first quarter with a groin injury. We won’t count the first 4 games without Tom Brady, but let’s look at who the Pats have beaten in their 13-1 record with Brady at QB:
@ Browns
Bengals
@ Steelers (without Big Ben)
@ Bills
@ 49ers
@ Jets
Rams
Ravens
@ Broncos
Jets
@ Dolphins (without Tannehill)
Texans
Steelers (without Leveon Bell)
They beat 3 teams with winning records all season. And both times they played the Steelers, they were missing starters. They beat the Dolphins without Ryan Tannehill, and the beat the hapless Texans in the divisional round of the playoffs… the same Texans team that won the AFC South with a 9-7 record and who lost their last game of the year at the Titans without Marcus Mariota.
I believe the Falcons are the most complete team the Pats have played all year, and the only offense they’ve faced that did not have severe deficiencies in their matchup. The Falcons are healthy and they have weapons all over the field. Matt Ryan can lead them on long drives, and the Pats defense doesn’t scare me. The Falcons defense is young and fast, and they’re incredibly aggressive. They’ll get after Brady, and they’ll force at least one turnover in the game. This team is on a roll, and they’re clicking on all cylinders. Since a 29-28 loss at Kansas City on Dec 4th, this team has won 6 straight, scoring 42, 41, 33, 38, 36 and 44. The Pats may try to take away Julio Jones, but they have guys all over the field that can make plays, and they have 2 running backs that can not only catch the ball out of the backfield, but can run between the tackles, and make guys miss on the outside.
I think the Falcons defense wins the game for them. They’ll find a way to produce points, and they’ll keep Brady in check for most of the game. I’m taking the Falcons 28-24.
