Ok, so here’s the truth of it:
There are not very many good college football resumes out there.
We all know that the playoff committee appreciates strength of schedule and conference championships, but this year looks to make that an incredibly difficult proposition because of how bad the other sides of the big conferences have been. There’s a much larger gap this year between the good teams and the middle teams, which leaves some unexptected teams, that we wouldn’t normally consider elite, with a shot at the college football playoff.
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Here are the teams that are supposedly in the mix for the playoffs: Alabama, Ohio St, Michigan, Clemson, Wisconsin, Washington, Louisville, Penn St, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Colorado, Florida, Washington St (ehhh). We’ll go through those teams one by one in a minute.
First, let’s go over the possibilities for the conference championship games:
ACC Championship
Clemson / Louisville vs Virginia Tech / North Carolina
Clemson gets in if they beat Wake Forest this weekend, and Louisville gets in if Clemson loses (since they have no more conference games left – playing this week at Houston and next week against Kentucky). Virginia Tech gets in if they beat Virginia, and North Carolina gets in if they win out and Virginia beats Tech.
SEC Championship
Alabama vs Florida / Tennessee
Alabama has already clinched the SEC West. Florida gets in with a win at LSU this weekend. Tennessee owns the head-to-head win over Florida, so they get in if they win out and Florida loses at LSU this weekend.
BIG 10 Championship
Michigan / Ohio St / Penn St vs Wisconsin / Nebraska
Michigan gets in if they win out, which looks to be more difficult now that their starting QB is out for the rest of the season after breaking his collarbone against Iowa. Ohio St gets there if they win out and Penn St loses a game. Penn St gets there by winning out and having Michigan lose to either Indiana or Ohio St. Wisconsin won the head-to-head matchup over Nebraska, and they both have a loss to Ohio St. Wisconsin gets in if they win out, but if they lose to either Purdue or Minnesota, Nebraska can get in by winning out.
PAC 12 Championship
Washington / Washington St vs Colorado / Utah / USC
The winner of the Washington / Washington St game will go to the Pac 12 Championship game, barring Washington losing at home to Arizona St this weekend. Washington St is undefeated in conference play so far, and Washington has 1 loss, so the Colorado game for the Cougs this weekend really doesn’t matter, as far as the Colorado can get there by beating Utah in the last week of the season, regardless of the outcome against Washington St this weekend. Utah can get there by beating Oregon and Colorado. The only way USC can get there is if they beat UCLA this weekend and Colorado loses to Washington St then beats Utah, because Utah beat USC and USC beat Colorado. Crazy, I know.
Now, of all those teams (17) that could get into conference championship games, only 11 of them could find their way into the playoff talks. And only 9 have a realistic shot (with 5 of those needing chaos to get in the playoff).
For today, we’re only going to talk about their resumes up to this point. A lot can obviously change, but we want to see what they’ve done, to date. We’ll be using the ESPN FPI as a scale. Yes, I know the FPI is flawed… but hell, everything is. I could use the Sagarin if you’d like, but it’s flawed as well. Injuries, etc, play a huge part in all of this. We’ll discuss each team after the resume.
1. Alabama
Current FPI: 1
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 6
Schedule remaining (FPI): 38
8 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
6 at LSU
11 USC (neutral site)
12 Texas A&M
16 at Ole Miss
17 at Tennessee
44 Western Kentucky
45 at Arkansas
50 Miss St
Losses
N/A
Alabama has the absolute best resume in the country, and it’s not even close. The majority of their big wins have come away from home, and, most importantly, they have not lost a game. They’ve dominated their competition, so this isn’t an instance like Clemson where they’ve played down to the competition in some of these games. They’ve owned double digit leads in every single game, winning all by double digits except the game at Ole Miss, which they led 48-30 with 3 minutes left.
2. Ohio St
Current FPI: 3
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 31
Schedule remaining (FPI): 10
4 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
10 at Oklahoma
13 at Wisconsin
40 Nebraska
43 Northwestern
Losses
21 at Penn St
Ohio St is in a weird situation because they could have the 2nd best resume in the country, and not even win their own division. If they beat Michigan, they have to hope for Penn St to lose, otherwise Penn St owns the head-to-head tie-breaker over them. If I had to guess, Ohio St will be the first non-conference champ to make the playoff… unless the committee determines that conference champs are a priority and decides that Penn St deserves to go and not them.
3. Michigan
Current FPI: 2
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 49
Schedule remaining (FPI): 29
3 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
13 Wisconsin
15 Colorado
21 Penn St
Losses
37 at Iowa
Michigan is in trouble. Their starting quarterback is out for the year, and they get one game (at home against pesky Indiana) to break him in before they have to go to Columbus and play Ohio St, who is clicking on all cylinders. I would wager that Michigan will lose that game and they will not make the playoff.
4. Clemson
Current FPI: 4
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 30
Schedule remaining (FPI): 47
5 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
4 Louisville
8 at Auburn
9 at Florida St
46 NC State
49 at Georgia Tech
Losses
30 Pitt
Clemson has the best wins, according to the FPI, with 3 Top 10 wins, although Auburn and Florida St both have 3 losses now, and Auburn was not the same team to start the year as they turned into, before last week’s Georgia loss. They played some tight games against less than stellar competition, eventually losing one of those to Pitt. QB Watson has not looked the same, making some great plays, but combining that with boneheaded decisions (like the interception in the endzone against Pitt that set up the Panthers win). They don’t have a really difficult remaining stretch, and if they win out at Wake Forest, against South Carolina and over Va Tech or North Carolina in the ACC Championship game, they will easily get into the playoffs.
5. Wisconsin
Current FPI: 13
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 11
Schedule remaining (FPI): 51
4 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
6 LSU (neutral site)
37 at Iowa
40 Nebraska
43 at Northwestern
Losses
2 at Michigan
3 Ohio St
Wisconsin’s only real signature win looks like the first game of the year in a not-so-neutral site game (Lambeau Field) against LSU, who was not the same team before they fired Les Miles. Their 3 other top 50 wins are over Iowa, Nebraska, and Northwestern – 3 teams ranked 37th or lower. They could use a team like Michigan getting into the Big 10 championship game to give them a shot at a big win (even with an injury) because I don’t know how much a win over Penn St will resonate with the committee.
6. Louisville
Current FPI: 5
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 64
Schedule remaining (FPI): 81
2 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
9 Florida St
46 NC State
Losses
5 at Clemson
29 at Houston
Louisville has only 2 Top 50 wins, one against a 3 loss Florida St team in Louisville, and the other over NC State in Louisville. Their loss at Clemson was extremely close – coming a yard short of converting a 4th down at the end of the game, due to the WR inexplicably stepping out of bounds instead of fighting for the yard, inside the 10 yard line. The way their offense was moving, they would have probably scored there. But almost doesn’t count here. The rest of the Cardinals’ strength of schedule is hideous. There’s not much to their resume – they need Clemson to lose at Wake Forest this weekend for any real chance of making the playoff.
UPDATED (11/18): after last night’s blowout loss at Houston, Louisville is effectively eliminated from playoff consideration. They are, however, still in play for the ACC Championship game, if Clemson loses at Wake Forest this weekend. A Clemson loss would knock the ACC out of the playoffs, I believe.
7. Washington
Current FPI: 7
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 63
Schedule remaining (FPI): 25
2 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
22 Stanford
29 at Utah
Losses
11 USC
To date, Washington has only 2 Top 50 wins, according to the FPI. The playoff committee ranked Stanford at #23 this week, and I think it was to justify having Washington in the Top 6, because their resume does not earn them a spot up there right now. Their strength of schedule is even lower than Louisville’s, and they have a worse loss. Their non-conference games this year were Rutgers, Idaho, and Portland St (FCS). I don’t think we’ll have to worry about this team, because I believe they will lose another game before the season is done. But… if they win out and get the Pac 12 Championship, they’ll put them in the playoff to appease the Pac 12.
8. Penn St
Current FPI: 21
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 29
Schedule remaining (FPI): 80
3 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
3 Ohio St
37 Iowa
48 Temple
Losses
2 at Michigan
30 at Pitt
Penn St, by virtue of a last second home win over FPI #3 Ohio St, is in the driver seat for the Big 10 East division championship, with a current 3 way tie between them, Ohio St, and Michigan… thanks to Michigan having to play at Ohio St without their starting QB. 3 Top 50 wins is nice, but this looks an awful lot like Wisconsin’s schedule, only Penn St lost to 2 of the top 3 rated teams they’ve played (one of them being at Pittsburgh). They have not won any big games away from home, but if they win the Big 10 championship game over Wisconsin, that’ll be a big time feather in their cap. I think Ohio St ends up getting in the playoff over the Nittany Lions, regardless of whether they win the championship or not, but with the committee stating that one of their priorities is conference champs, it might be difficult for them to keep Penn St out, since they own a head-to-head win over the Buckeyes.
9. West Virginia
Current FPI: 20
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 38
Schedule remaining (FPI): 32
5 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
28 TCU
32 BYU
33 at Texas
41 Kansas St
47 at Texas Tech
Losses
23 at Oklahoma St
West Virginia is the forgotten one loss team, mostly because they don’t have any signature wins. Their strength of schedule is pretty good because they’ve played a lot of decent teams, but no great teams. Their one loss was not a bad one, being on the road in Stillwater and losing to Oklahoma St. They’ve got Oklahoma and Baylor left on the schedule, and both come to Morgantown, so expect their strength of schedule to only go up, and their FPI will jump from #20 if they beat Oklahoma this weekend. I still don’t see any way they can work their way into the playoffs without major chaos ensuing.
10. Oklahoma
Current FPI: 10
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 27
Schedule remaining (FPI): 8
5 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
28 at TCU
33 Texas (neutral site)
35 Baylor
41 Kansas St
47 at Texas Tech
Losses
3 Ohio St
29 Houston (neutral site)
Oklahoma is going to have a very difficult problem getting over the hump, even if they win out, thanks to early losses to Houston and at home to Ohio St. And those were not just losses – they got demolished in both of those games. They could make a statement for themselves with wins at West Virginia and at home against Oklahoma St, but people would still have an issue with them getting in, just because of their losses, especially is Houston gets housed at home by Louisville Thursday night. Oklahoma and West Virginia are in the same boat – whoever wins the matchup in Morgantown this weekend will need chaos in order to make the playoffs.
11. Colorado
Current FPI: 15
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 33
Schedule remaining (FPI): 14
2 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
22 at Stanford
27 UCLA
Losses
2 at Michigan
11 at USC
People are guessing that Colorado could be in the Playoff Top 10 rankings when they are released tonight, but I just don’t see how. Their strength of schedule is 33, but they lost to the 2 best teams they’ve played, and their 2 Top 50 wins (10-5 at Stanford and 20-10 at home against a UCLA team without Josh Rosen) are not really that impressive. They have a chance to rectify it though if they win out, they’ll have wins over Washington St, Utah, and either Washington St again or Washington. A late season push against 3 Top 25 foes could propel them into the playoffs, but it would still be difficult.
12. Florida
Current FPI: 24
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 67
Schedule remaining (FPI): 1
1 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
42 Georgia
Losses
17 at Tennessee
45 at Arkansas
Florida has an awful strength of schedule, with no signature wins at all. They haven’t dominated against any decent competition all year (sans an early blowout of Kentucky, who was not decent at the time), and they have 2 top 50 losses compared to only 1 top 50 win. The highest FPI ranked team they’ve faced this year is Tennessee, who blew them out with 35 straight points in the 2nd half of their game in Knoxville. But all of this could change in the blink of an eye with games at LSU, at Florida St, and, if they beat LSU, a win over #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship game. Yes, they have 2 losses, but if they beat Alabama, Florida St, and LSU to close out the season, all away from home, then they deserve a shot at the playoffs.
I would bet that they lose all 3 of those games, though, and we won’t hear anything else about them after this weekend.
13. Washington St
Current FPI: 14
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 54
Schedule remaining (FPI): 3
Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
22 at Stanford
27 UCLA
Losses
26 at Boise St
— Eastern Washington (FCS School)
Washington St and Colorado are the exact same team, except you can add a loss at home to FCS foe Eastern Washington 45-42 in the first game of the season, and their biggest loss was at Boise St instead of Michigan, regardless of the fact that Michigan beat Colorado by 17 and Washington St lose to Boise by 2. Washington St is in the same spot as Colorado as well, with a chance to beat Colorado this weekend, beat Washington the next week, and beat a Utah or USC team the week after that in the Pac 12 Championship game. If they win the Pac 12, they could state a case for going, as their current FPI (14) would definitely rise into the Top 7 or 8. I don’t think any of it will be enough to earn a playoff berth, but the schedule is still there to make a push.
14. Utah
Current FPI: 29
Strength of Schedule (Sagarin): 46
Schedule remaining (FPI): 28
2 Top 50 Wins (FPI rank)
11 USC
32 BYU
Losses
7 Washington
61 at Cal
Utah, in my opinion, doesn’t have a chance to get into the playoff. Their only big game left is Colorado, who is currently 10th, but who could be much lower if they lose at home to a Washington St team this weekend, who is on fire right now, winners of 8 straight. Utah still has a chance to get to the Pac 12 Championship game, and if they beat Washington St, or avenge a loss to Washington, then they will be a conference champ with 2 losses… but they’ll still be sitting on the outside. The loss at Cal is going to end up being too much to overcome. That’s the problem with the entire Pac 12, sans Washington. Everybody has 2 losses, and Wash St lost to Boise St & Eastern Washington, and Utah lost to Cal. Bad losses are difficult to get over, regardless of whether they were on the road or not.
If you want my predictions right now, I believe the playoff field will be:
#1 Alabama vs #4 Penn St (in Atlanta, GA)
#2 Clemson vs #3 Ohio St (in Glendale, AZ)
Ohio St vs Clemson would be a fantastic TV matchup between QBs Deshaun Watson and JT Barrett, and Alabama vs Penn St is an old school rivalry game dating back to Bear Bryant vs Joe Paterno. Both would be big for TV ratings, and you’d have big names in each game, which should make up for the lackluster TV ratings from last year (let’s be honest – the games were on a bad day, and the first started at 3pm when everybody was still at work… and nobody wanted to watch non-traditional blue bloods Clemson and Michigan St, but with their 2nd appearance, there’s more of a following for Clemson this year, and Ohio St will draw more TV viewers than Oklahoma did last year).
Wisconsin lost their defensive leader a few games ago, and, even although they’ve been beating up on weaker teams since then, I don’t know that they could do that against great competition right now. Penn St is clicking and, in my opinion, would win the Big 10 Championship game, which would put them in, especially seeing as how no 2 loss team in the country would have a better win than they do (over Ohio St).
I don’t believe Washington will be good enough, with their 2 best defensive players out for the season, to win-out with games against Arizona St, at Washington St, and a Pac-12 title game against Colorado, Utah, or USC on the horizon, and I don’t think Colorado or Washington St has the resume to get there.
The Big 12 is screwy enough that Oklahoma could beat West Virginia this weekend, but then lose at home to Oklahoma St, but even if they or West Virginia wins out, I just don’t think they’ll have the wins to be able and sneak in, even with a conference championship… notably because they don’t have a championship game to give them another big win.
So this year, the Pac 12 AND Big 12 would both be left out, possibly laying the groundwork to start discussing an 8-team playoff down the road, since those 2 major conferences will be furious.
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