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Ahhh yes.  Turkey day is here at last.  A premiere day for the National Football League, and man, they’ve got some great games on today.  We do pick a couple of them in our big game picks today, so read below for that.

As far as how we’re looking right now on our picks for the year, things are looking up.  Much better than they could have gone – both of us sit over 50% in our gambling picks, which is always good.  Chris has not fared so well in the head-to-head 7-on-7 picks thus far, but he still has time for a bounce back.  Final week of the regular season… we should know these teams by now, so let’s do it.

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Gary’s Gambling Picks
Current standings
CFB: 33-25-2
NFL: 10-13-1  

1. Arkansas @ Missouri (over 75)
Missouri averages 31.7 ppg while Arkansas average 31.5 ppg.  But here’s the deal… Arkansas averages giving up 31.0 ppg while Missouri averages giving up 32.2.  These two defenses are terrible, and both offenses can put up a ton of points.  The game is in Columbia, and they’ll be passing the ball all over the field this weekend.  Arkansas and Missouri were both in games that totaled 100 points last weekend, Arkansas beating Miss St 58-42, and Missouri losing at Tennessee 63-37.  Both teams have been able to score at will against weaker defenses… and luckily both teams have weaker defenses.  Look for this one to go soaring over the total.
 

2. Cincinnati @ Tulsa (-23)
Cinci has absolutely quit on Tommy Tuberville, and you could see it in their body language at home last week, losing 34-7 to a Memphis team with a backup quarterback.  Tulsa can absolutely put up points in bunches, and they have no mercy on anybody – averaging 41.5 ppg (and it would have been more had they not been held to 3 points at Ohio St to start the year).  They average 48.5 ppg at home.  Cinci, on the road, averages 15.8 ppg.  That’s a 33 point difference, and yet, I’m getting Tulsa at 10 points under that?  I’ll take it every time.  Gimme the Hurricanes.

3. Navy (-7) @ SMU
Navy was ranked at #25 in the latest college football playoff rankings, which sets them up as the 2nd highest rated Group of 5 school that can still win a championship.  In order to get that opportunity to play in a big bowl game, Navy needs to beat SMU in Dallas, then beat Temple or USF next week in the conf championship game, and then beat Army.  I think they’ll destroy SMU – the Mustangs give up 4.51 yards per rush, and you know Navy is just going to eat them alive.  Navy has averaged 48.2 ppg in their last 5 against AAC teams, and SMU won’t be slowing that down.

4. South Carolina (+24) @ Clemson
South Carolina has not lost to a single team this entire season by more than 14 points.  Their offense has seemingly found a new life, and the defense, while not looking great the last 2 weeks, is still a Will Muschamp defense… and do you not think Will Muschamp would LOVE to wreck Clemson’s shot at a 2nd straight playoff?  South Carolina was absolutely atrocious last year and they were only beaten 37-32 by a much better Clemson team than the one you’re seeing this year.  I think this is just too many points in a rivalry game like this.

5. East Carolina @ Temple (-20.5)
Temple has now covered 10 straight games after not covering the first week of the season.  Temple won their last 2 games 31-0 and 21-0, and they’re on an absolute tear.  East Carolina, on the other hand, have lost their last 3 by 21, 24, and 35 points last week – trending the wrong direction.  If you can get temple under 3 touchdowns, lock it up.

6. NFL: Vikings @ Lions (-2.5) 
I’m a believer in Matt Stafford, and I don’t believe that the Lions will turn the ball over and make the same mistakes that other teams have played into against the Vikings.  This is a divisional game, and the winner will take the lead in the division.  The Vikings are 1-4 in their last 5, while the Lions are 4-1, and with this game being at home, I believe the Lions will have the advantage.  Less than 3 points?  Gimme a break – I’m layin the points.

7. NFL: Titans (-4.5) @ Bears
The Bears are just an awful football team.  They’ve lost 8 of 10, and their defense can’t seem to stop any decent offenses.  The Titans generally play well after a loss, and they’ll put up enough points that the Bears won’t be able to play catchup.  I like the Titans by a touchdown in this one.

Our combined picks are:

Head to Head matchups
The week’s biggest games in CFB and the NFL.

This is my reasoning behind the picks, which, this week, appears to be about the exact same reasoning for Chris, since we only have two games picked differently.

• Washington’s problem right now is their defense.  I think Washington St’s defense can slow down Washington’s offense, but I don’t think the same of the Huskies defense against the Cougars.  With Washington St being at home, I think they’ll score in bunches, and Washington will have a difficult time keeping up with them.  I think Washington St wins the game… but I’ll take the 6 just incase something crazy happens.
• Michigan and Ohio St will play in about 40 degree cloudy, nasty weather, and both defenses are pretty awesome, while both offenses seem to struggle in games against decent opposition.  I think this game is a close, ugly, nasty normal Big 10 football game, and the Wolverines may not win, but they’ll stay within the touchdown.  Call it 20-17 Ohio St, or something like that.
• I took Auburn in this one only because 18 points just feels like a ton in this game.  Auburn had a worse team last year, and still played to within 14 of Alabama.  I think these 2 coaching staffs know each other very well, and it won’t be a complete blowout, so I think Alabama wins maybe 31-14ish… but within the 18 points.
• Utah lost at home to a really bad Oregon team.  Colorado won at home over a really good Washington St team.  Therefore, we get line value.  Colorado has covered in 10 of 11 games already this year, but this just looks like way too many points here.  Had this game been played last week, the line would have been about 6 or 7.  Instead, we get it at 10.  Utah has the ability, like they did against Washington, to take the air out of the ball, and play ball-control offense.  Their defense can absolutely rise to the occassion, and they may lose, but it won’t be by 10 points.
• Florida St reminds me a lot of LSU this year.  And I think Florida’s defense proved that they can step up on big stages.  They’ll do the same thing against Florida St.  Now, I don’t know that they’ll win the game, but it is interesting to get to see the same team against both LSU and Jimbo Fisher in back to back weeks while we’re discussing the possibility of Jimbo taking over LSU.  Either way, I think Florida keeps this one within that touchdown – they want payback for the 27-2 beatdown they took last year.
• The Cowboys have been rolling all year long.  9 straight wins, and 9 straight covers.  But Washington has covered 3 in a row, and 7 of 8.  Yes, I know they had a short turnaround from the Sunday night game, but this offense is explosive right now, and I think they’ll be able to push Dallas and keep it within that 7 points.
• The Chiefs were embarrassed last week in a home loss to Tampa Bay, and they’ll be looking to take out their frustrations on the division opponent Broncos.  I still don’t feel like Denver is as good as their record indicates, and the Chiefs will expose them this weekend by winning outright in Mile High.

SEC Fantasy Picks 

 I’ve won 3 of the last 4 and gotten myself into a 6-6 tie with Chris for SEC Fantasy Supremacy.  This is it.  Game 7 (well… 13) for all the marbles.  Here’s who we’re rolling with.

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