Blog

Last week’s college football picks went 3-0-2, which ain’t too shabby, honestly.  Any weekend where you don’t lose a game is a good week, and, even though we had 2 games push, a push is better than a loss.

We’re continuing to look for that perfect 5-0 college football week, and this weekend, which doesn’t have Alabama or LSU playing, could be the one that finally gets it done for us.  There are only so many analytics you can use to figure teams out… and sometimes numbers don’t go according to plan, but the later in the season we get, teams just are what they are.

On to the picks… we’re going 5-0 in college, baby!

We talk about all of our picks in the latest podcast, which you can download on iTunes, Tune-In, Stitcher, or any other podcast app that you may have.  You can also listen in here:

Gary’s Gambling Picks
Current standings
CFB: 22-16-2
NFL: 5-10-1

1. Northwestern (+27) @ Ohio St

Northwestern has been on a roll here lately, winning 4 of their last 5, including the last 3 at Iowa, at Michigan St, and over Indiana.  Pat Fitzgerald is 24-15 against the spread as a road dog.  I don’t expect them to win the game, but their offense is clicking and I think that Ohio St is beat up after a gauntlet of games against Indiana, at Wisconsin and a loss at Penn St.

This line opened up at Ohio St -23.5 and has now jumped all the way to 27, which makes no sense, considering Northwestern is a pretty good team, and Ohio St has looked incredibly average recently.

Northwestern is hot right now.  Take the points on the Wildcats to cover.

2. Auburn (-4) @ Ole Miss

This line terrifies me.  Ole Miss opened up as a 1 point favorite when the line came out on Sunday morning and was quickly bet to Auburn -2 that day.  It has now moved on to Auburn -4.  I don’t know if I feel incredibly comfortable with it, because it’s been a long time since Hugh Freeze has lost 3 straight games (2013), and because Vegas set the Rebs as a favorite to start out with.  But I can’t figure any of that out.

According to Sagarin ratings, Auburn should be about a 5 point favorite, but I don’t even know if that’s enough points.  According to cfbstats.com, Ole Miss is last in the SEC in rushing defense, giving up 226 ypg, and they give up 5.16 ypc.  Auburn’s offense is rolling right now, averaging 302 ypg and 5.51 ypc.  Ole Miss ranks near the bottom in every defensive category, and Auburn is racking up points on everyone.

Ole Miss can’t stop anybody, and Auburn is running the ball like their hair is on fire.  Hop on the Gus Bus, lay the points, and cash the checks.

3. Washington @ Utah (+10)

Utah is, consistently, one of the most underrated teams in the country.  They are always well-coached and incredibly disciplined.  This year, the team is ranked in the top 20, and they’re a 10 point home underdog to Washington.  The Huskies, according to the Sagarin ratings, should win this game by about 2 TDs… but I’ve seen games where College Gameday goes places they don’t usually go, and teams pull out crazy wins when they absolutely should not.

I think Washington’s numbers have been inflated because of how bad their schedule has been.  Utah’s average opponent FPI is 46, with 5 of their games being against teams in the top 60 of the FPI.  Washington’s opponents, on the other hand, average a ranking of 73.  Washington has beaten up on really bad football teams.

Utah will provide a different type of adversity on the road than they’re used to.  They hammered Oregon in Autzen, but this Oregon team has, literally, the worst total defense in the entire country.  In their other road game (of substance… because Oregon St without their starting qb doesn’t count as tough), the Huskies were taken to overtime and barely escaped at Arizona.

Utah will show up, especially with College Gameday in town, and, with it being a 1:30pm local time kickoff, weird things can happen in Salt Lake City.  Take the points and make some money with the Utes.

4. Michigan (-23.5) @ Michigan St

Jim Harbaugh is wanting to prove a point this year, and now that he’s got a dominant defense, and Michigan St has an offense that can’t score against air, expect him to absolutely hammer this team in front of their home fans.

Think about what Harbaugh did to Rutgers a few weeks ago, in a 78-0 win.  Remember, he was wanting to take over the state of New Jersey in recruiting, so what better way than to embarrass the home team.  He will do the same thing to Dantonio, especially after they stole a win in the big house last year on the last play of the game, in a ridiculous punt block return for a touchdown that turned into a completely unexpected win for the Spartans.

Mich St has won 7 straight games against Michigan.  That’s unheard of in the history of Big Blue football.  And don’t think Harbaugh hasn’t noticed.  Wolverine fans still treat the Spartans like little step brothers… but Sparty beating them year after year has been insanely painful for this fanbase.

Harbaugh will take care of this.  Yes, the game is in East Lansing.  But Michigan tends to actually play a little better when they go on the road.  They’re bashing peoples heads in, and Michigan St has nothing that will be able to slow them down.  Expect a 5 TD win here, by more than 30.  Harbaugh proves a point in this one.

5. Washington St (-13) @ Oregon St

Mike Leach has been, easily, the most entertaining coach in the country this year, and his team has been responding well.  They’re 5-2 and have won 5 straight, including 4 straight conference games (2 on the road, 2 at home).

Oregon St lost their starting qb a couple of weeks ago, and were down 31-0 at the half to Washington last week before the Huskies took their foot off the gas.

Washington St is rolling, and Oregon St is now trying to figure out how to move the football again.  And you’re giving me less than 2 TDs?  Give me a break.

Hey Vegas!  I’m comin for ya!  Give me the Cougs -13!

6. Lions (+3) @ Texans

I’m 5-10-1 in picking NFL games this year.  So I’m looking at any kind of analytics that I can find to give me an idea on what to pick here.  NFL lines are always so close, and you never know which team is going to show up.

The Texans are reeling.  Which is crazy, because, after getting blasted by the Colts for 3 and 1/2 quarters, they came back and scored 17 unanswered points to win the game, and then last week got absolutely housed by the Broncos (which, a lot of teams do).

The Texans defense isn’t as daunting as they had been previously, and their offense just cannot score.  The Lions are incredibly underrated, and Matt Stafford is playing as well as any QB in the League.  Also, the Lions defense is definitely good enough to stop Osweiler and the Texans offense.

I expect the Lions to cover the 3, and possibly win the game straight up.

7. Redskins (+3) vs Bengals (in London)

This game is a bit surprising to me.  The Redskins have been playing incredibly well, and the Bengals have just not been good this year.  Now, a big part of this is that Josh Norman is out, and AJ Green is incredibly, so, obviously, the Bengals should be able to score.

But Cousins has been playing great at QB, so I’m not sure exactly what to think.

So I turned to Jeff Sagarin, who seems to think that Washington, right now, is 2 points better than the Bengals.  So that’s how I’m rolling.  Redskins +3, straight up in London.

 Our combined picks are…

 Head to Head matchups
The week’s biggest games in CFB and the NFL.

Here’s the reasoning behind my picks…

• I explained the Washington/Utah pick at the top of the page.  Utah is a good team and Washington is untested.  Read more up top
• Nebraska is a better team than people are giving them credit for, and Wisconsin not only has gone through an incredibly difficult stretch of games, but their defensive leader (and the team’s leading tackler and 2nd on the team in tackles-for-loss), LB Jack Cichy, is out for the rest of the year.  The Wisconsin offense has trouble scoring (averaging 18.6 ppg against Power 5 teams).  Mike Riley is a good coach, and I believe he’ll have his boys ready for this game.  
• Clemson has been playing with fire all season.  Florida St did not look great when they first lost Derwin James earlier this year before the Louisville game, but they’ve figured out how to work without him, allowing only 19 points to Miami and 6 points to Wake Forest.  The offense is working behind all-everything back Dalvin Cook, and Clemson looked incredibly bad against NC State at home 2 weeks ago.  Clemson is 1-11 in their last 12 at Doak Campbell Stadium, including losing the last 4 times there.  I think Florida St can win this game outright, and they should be amped up for it.
• If West Virginia is going to get picked off anytime soon, it’s going to be this game.  But, I believe the defense is playing lights out right now, holding Texas Tech and TCU, two of the most high-powered offenses in the country, to 17 points and 10 points, respectively.  WVU is rolling right now, on both sides of the ball.  Both teams do a good job on turnovers – with WVU creating 11 turnovers and giving the ball away 8 times (almost all takeaways coming against Mizzou, BYU, Tex Tech, and TCU), while Oklahoma St has gotten 16 turnovers and lost 9 (including gaining 10 against Kansas, Iowa St, and SE Louisiana and only losing 1).  The public is all over Oklahoma St, but I don’t think people are giving this Mountaineer team enough credit.
• Georgia and Florida are 2 teams that have difficulty scoring.  Florida has trouble with just about everybody when they’re on offense, and Georgia’s offense against Florida’s defense is going to have their hands full.  I think, in a rivalry game, where points will be at a premium, anything more than a touchdown is going to be too much.  
• Green Bay is actually ranked higher than the Falcons in the Sagarin ratings, and their defense is much better than the Falcons.  Atlanta is #1 in the NFL in total offense, while the Packers are #6.  The Green Bay offense is ranked #23 while the Falcons are #26 in total defense.  I think the Packers find a way to keep this game close, and the Falcons are 0-2 in games that are decided by less than a touchdown (2-3 in game that are exactly a touchdown or less).  Atlanta allows an average of more than 10 points in the 4th quarter alone, while Green Bay averages giving up only 5 pts.  I think the Pack keep it close and pull out a win.
• The Eagles put everything on the table last week because they wanted the win at home over former teammate Sam Bradford and the Vikings so badly.  In the 2 games prior to that, the offense had completely disappeared in losses to the Redskins and the Lions.  The Cowboys had an off week, and the Eagles are coming into their building.  Dak has the offense absolutely rolling, and because of the competency on offense, the defense is performing MUCH better than expected, ranking #6 in defensive points allowed (17.8ppg), while the offense is #3 in total offense, averaging over 402ypg.  I think Dallas runs on this team, a lot, and wins by at least a touchdown.

SEC Fantasy Picks