WCE Thursday Picks

We’re midway through the season at this point in college, and dangerously close in the NFL, and the lines are starting to shift.  Numbers look a lot closer, so it’s difficult to see extreme advantages one way or another.  The best bet is to find who is over and undervalued based on recent play, and hope that these teams remain true to what they’ve been recently, as opposed to what they started as.  Figuring out what a team’s identity is through the season is always difficult, and it’s even more difficult when you’re picking games against a point spread.  But… we’ve done pretty well so far this season, and we’re planning on only getting hotter as the season rolls on.  I’m still waiting for that undefeated weekend… and this weekend feels good…

Gary’s Gambling Picks
Current standings
CFB: 19-16
NFL: 5-8-1 
 
1. Oregon @ Cal (-3)

The Sagarin ratings go against what I’m betting here – Oregon is actually the higher ranked team, with a Sagarin rating of 74.2 while Cal is sitting at 72.87.  But a lot of that has to do with the crazy overtime game at Oregon St a couple of weeks ago that Cal lost.  Cal is ranked 1st in the Pac-12 in total offense, and 1st in passing offense.  Oregon is ranked 11th in passing defense, and dead last in total defense.  On the opposite side of that, Oregon is #1 in rushing offense, while Cal is ranked dead last in rushing defense.

I’m calling on Cal to have some explosive plays against a beat up Oregon defense that can’t stop a dynamic passing attack from QB Davis Webb.  Cal is 2-0 at home with wins against Texas and #19 Utah, and their numbers at home are significantly better than on the road.  Oregon is just bad everywhere.  Both teams had a bye last week, with Oregon coming off getting blasted 70-21 at home by Washington, and Cal lost in OT at Oregon St.  This game will have a lot of fireworks, but Cal plays better at home.  Take the Bears at home to cover the 3 points.

2. Texas (+3) @ Kansas St

This is more of a feel kinda game.  Texas looked like they may have turned the corner last week on defense, even though it was against Iowa St.  The Cyclones had been clicking on offense in their last few games leading up to that one, and Texas had been bad in the first game that Charlie Strong took over the defense, but that first game was against Oklahoma.  He seems to have gotten the fire back.

Pair that with the fact that we don’t know how healthy Kan St QB Jessie Ertz is, and you’ve got a recipe for Texas to sneak in and grab the win in Manhattan.

3. Eastern Michigan (+23.5) @ Western Michigan

According to the Sagarin rating, Western Michigan is 28 points better than Eastern Michigan (82-54), but Eastern Michigan is 5-2 against the number this year, and the only 2 games they lost were against a red hot Toledo, and against Missou in the 2nd game of the year.  Western Michigan is killing everybody, but 23.5 is a lot of points when both teams can score.  Vegas is wanting people to catch up to Western Michigan, since they are 6-1 ATS so far this year, and everybody has hopped on the PJ Fleck train, with them being nationally ranked, etc.  The Broncos are still rowing the boat, but this one stays within the number.

4. UMass (+20.5) @ South Carolina

Muschamp’s team has scored exactly 20 points one time this year, and that was in a 20-15 win over East Carolina.  They’ve averaged 14 points in all of their other games this year.  UMass is all over the board when it comes to scoring points – they averaged 7 points in their first 2 games, but have averaged 25ppg in their last 5, including a 35 point output against the same Mississippi St team that held South Carolina to 13.  I don’t doubt that South Carolina will win… but 3 TDs seems like a lot for a team that hasn’t even broken 20 points once this year.

5. Colorado (+2.5) @ Stanford

Stanford seems to be a shell of their former selves, while Colorado appears to be the new kids on the block in the Pac-12.  The Buffs are the new darkhorse pick to win the Pac-12 South, and they’ve definitely been playing like it, sans one bad game at USC a couple of weeks ago.  They’ve feasted on the lesser teams in the conference, and have held their own against Michigan and USC.  If Christian McAffery doesn’t play this weekend, I’ll like this pick even more, but the Buffalo look like the much more complete team.

Stanford was able to get a win at Notre Dame last week without scoring a single offensive point.  The team scored on an interception return for a touchdown, a fumble return for a touchdown, and a safety.  Against Washington St, the Cardinal got another touchdown from an interception return, and got 9 total offensive points thanks to an early field goal and a garbage touchdown on the last play of the game.  This same offense scored 6 points on Washington the week before, thanks to one sustained drive once the score was already 30-0, so that’s a total of 15 offensive points, with 12 of them (2 TDs with no PATs) scored when the team was already down 30+ in those games.  A week earlier, they were down 13-9 to UCLA and had a miracle 2-minute drive full of big plays, where Ryan Burns threw a touchdown with 24 seconds left, and then the defense returned a fumble on the last play of the game for the cover.    

This Stanford offense is absolutely dreadful right now, and Colorado is +5 in turnover margin this year, so they can’t bank on McCarthy’s bunch to just give them points.

Colorado is the better team.  I’m taking Colorado straight up in Palo Alto.

6. NFL: NY Giants @ LA Rams (+3)

The Giants don’t appear to be a very good football team, and they seem to really have trouble against teams with a good defense.  Their first win of the season, a 20-19 win at Dallas in the first game, when Dak was just getting his feet wet, is their best win… after that, they won at home 16-13 on a last second field goal against the saints, then lost 3 straight to the Redskins, at the Vikings, and at the Packers before getting a last second win at home against a terrible Baltimore team last weekend.  The Rams have a good defense, and their offense has looked better recently – I think the home team covers the points here, and I’m even taking them on the money line.

7. NFL: Bills (-3) @ Dolphins

Who would believe that I’d be betting on a Rex Ryan team in Week 7, but the Bills are on a 4 game winning streak since firing their offensive coordinator.  The running game is lights out, and the Bills are actually #3 in the NFL football power index, behind only the Patriots and the Vikings.  This offense can take the air out of the ball and pound you on the groud in different ways, and the defense has all of a sudden become suffocating.  Something is clicking with the Bills, and I still don’t believe in the Dolphins because they got a win over the Steelers after Roethlisberger got hurt.  Bills win big in Miami this weekend.

Our combined gambling picks for the week…

GaryChris
Texas (+3) @ Kansas StMich -36.5 over Illinois
E Mich (+23.50) @ W MichWisconsin-3 over Iowa
Oregon @ Cal (-3)UNC -8.5 over Virginia
UMass (+20.5) @ S CarolinaBrowns +9.5 over Bengals
Colorado (+2.5) @ StanfordChargers +6.5 over Falcons
NFL: Giants @ Rams (+3)Pats -7.5 over Steelers
NFL: Bills (-3) @ DolphinsVikings -2.5 over Eagles

Head to Head matchups
The week’s biggest games in CFB and the NFL.

GaryChris
10/22Texas A&M @ Alabama (-18)Bama (-18)A&M (+18)
10/22Arkansas @ Auburn (-9)Ark (+9)Ark (+9)
10/22Ole Miss @ LSU (-6)Ole Miss (+6)LSU (-6)
10/22Wisconsin (-3) @ IowaWisc (-3)Wis (-3)
10/22NC State @ Louisville (-19.5)NC St (+19.5)Louisville (-19.5)
10/23NFL: Vikings (-2.5) @ PhillyVikings (-2.5)Vikings (-2.5)
10/23NFL: Seahawks @ Cardinals (-1.5)Sea (+1.5)Cards (-1.5)
Total record for the season:25-24-218-31-2

Gary’s reasoning:

  • I’m taking Alabama -18 on this one just because they’re bucking every other trend so far.  We thought the last 2 lines were too high (-13 at Arkansas, -13 at Tennessee), but they’ve blown both numbers out of the water.  Combine that with the fact that Alabama has beaten Texas A&M 59-0 in Tuscaloosa in 2014 and 38-20 last year in College Station.  Kevin Sumlin has had issues with Nick Saban when Johnny Manziel isn’t lined up under center, and I’ve got no doubt that Saban remembers when Trevor Knight was the QB at Oklahoma against the Tide in the 2014 Sugar Bowl.  That game basically headstarted Saban building a different, faster, more athletic defense in Tuscaloosa, so, really, this defense is built to stop Trevor Knight.  In the Tuesday Trifecta, I explained how in 4 previous Top 6 matchups with a 2+ TD spread, the underdog is 4-0.  So I shouldn’t go with Bama, but I am.
  • Arkansas doesn’t appear like they should be a 9 point underdog at Auburn, but all of the advanced stats actually support that theory right now.  Along with the fact that the money is coming in 80% on Arkansas and the points, and Vegas still moved the line another half point towards Auburn… that means Vegas is begging you to take Arkansas.  And I’m falling in the trap.  The Razorbacks have only been blown out by 2 teams – Alabama and Texas A&M, 2 teams ranked in the Top 6.  I’m rolling with Arkansas just because I still don’t believe in the Gus Bus yet.
  •  LSU, with Ed Oregeron as head coach, is a 6 point favorite over Ole Miss Saturday night in Tiger Stadium.  LSU has been beating up nobodies since Coach O took over, and the offense appears to be rolling… but Hugh Freeze has not lost back-to-back games in his last 3 seasons in Oxford.  The Sagarin ratings basically have this one as a pick’em, so I think it’s going to be a close ballgame.  6 points seems like too much, so I’m taking Ole Miss.
  • Wisconsin is favored by 3 at Iowa, and I’m scared to death of this game.  Iowa isn’t great, but Wisconsin’s last 2 games were close, hard fought losses at Michigan and at home against Ohio St.  The body blow theory could be in effect here, along with the fact that both of these teams love to play low-scoring ugly football.  This could be 14-10 or 17-14 either way, so the best play might be the under.  But I’ll roll with the better football team since we’re going head to head, so I’m taking the Badgers.
  • NC State is the #1 rushing defense in the ACC… and Louisville is the #1 rushing offense in the ACC.  Something has to give, and I’m always going to side with the defense.  Louisville may have been exposed a little bit last week against Duke, and this game basically depends on whether NC State shows up after giving away a game they should have won at Clemson last week.  My guess is that they come out pissed off after last week.
  • The Vikings opened up as 1.5 point underdogs at Philadelphia, and the line was immediately bet down to Minn -2.5.  I still don’t think that’s enough.  The Vikings had a bye last week, so they’re rested up, and the shine has come off Philly with 2 straight losses to the Lions and the Redskins.  The Vikings should dominate this game.
  • The Seahawks have finally found their offense, and even though they stole a game at home against the Falcons last week, I still like their chances against the Cardinals, who have not exactly been world beaters this year.  The Cardinals have lost to every team with a pulse this year, and have 3 wins against the Jets, 49ers, and Bucs.  The Seahawks are not those teams.  I think Russell Wilson has himself a day in this one and the Seahawks steal the win.

SEC Fantasy Picks

Week 8Gary3-4Chris4-3
QBMO Drew LockDrew Lock MO
RBMO Damarea CrockettLeonard Fournette LSU
WRAL ArDarius StewartJ’Mon Moore MO
Defense/STSouth CarolinaGamecocks

Gary Segars

Gary began his first website in 1998 as a sophomore in high school, writing reviews of cds and live shows in the Memphis area. He became editor of his college newspaper, then moved towards a career in music.He started the infamous MemphisTider.com blog during the 2006 football season, and was lucky enough to get into blogging just before the coaching search that landed Nick Saban at Alabama. The month and a half long coaching search netted his site, which was known for tracking airplanes, over 1 million hits in less than 90 days. The website introduced Gary to tons of new friends, including Nico and Todd, who had just started the site RollBamaRoll.com.After diving into more than just Alabama news, Gary started up his first installment of WinningCuresEverything.com in 2012. After keeping the site quiet for a while, it was started back up in April 2016. Gary then joined forces with high school friend Chris Giannini and began a podcast during the 2016 football season that runs at least 2 times a week, focusing on college football, NFL football, and sports wagering, and diving into other sports and pop-culture topics.E-mail: gary@winningcureseverything.com Twitter: @GaryWCE

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