Watch the video here: https://youtu.be/QGjSmBjcC5k

 

We continue our 2024 conference previews with a 2 team conference, and 3 teams that aren’t in a conference… at least not yet! The Pac 12 carries on with only Beavers and Cougars – which is gonna lead to a lot of risque jokes, I’d imagine – and the independents will soon be short a UMass when the minutemen head to the MAC next year.

 

I don’t think there’s a bigger contrast between 2 athletic programs than Notre Dame and UMass… and yet, they’re both independents that play the same sports.  What a world.  These kinda things are what make college football great.  These guys are in the same universe, they can play each other… but we don’t have to pretend that they’re on a level playing field.  College Football fans understand that it is what it is.  Notre Dame expects to be in the playoff every year… UMass is just having fun.

 

Before we get into these 5 schools, you guys know what to do…

 

Like the video, Subscribe to the channel AND subscribe to the podcast (because I also do shows on the pod you won’t get on youtube)

And, of course, tell me in the comments your thoughts on these teams, who you think will win the conference, etc.

 

If you want to keep up with my bonus content during the season, my stats projections, picks as I make them, bonus podcasts, etc – sign up at BettingCFB.com – it’s $5 a month or $50 for the year.

 

For each of these team previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over their win total, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Current Win Total is 10.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +142 to go over (implied probability: 41.32%) and -176 to go under (implied probability: 63.77%). 

Why Notre Dame Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Riley Leonard’s dual-threat capability could provide the Irish with a dynamic offensive boost, especially if he fully recovers from his ankle surgeries and builds on his previous success at Duke.
2. The defense is anchored by experienced and talented players like Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts, creating a formidable unit that can keep games within reach.
3. The wide receiver corps has been bolstered by transfers, offering new and explosive options that could elevate the passing game and make the offense more versatile.

Why Notre Dame Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Leonard’s health remains a significant question mark, and if he’s not 100%, the offense could struggle to find consistency and explosiveness.
2. The departure of key offensive linemen like Joe Alt and Blake Fisher could lead to protection issues and hinder both the run and pass games. And it certainly doesn’t help that the starting left tackle was injured in fall camp and is out for the year.
3. The schedule includes a few challenging matchups, particularly against Texas A&M in the opener, along with Florida St and USC later in the year.

Their rating is 7, projected wins are 10.22 (slightly under), with 12 games as projected favorites and 3 toss-up games.

 

UConn Huskies

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -124 to go over (implied probability: 55.36%) and +102 to go under (implied probability: 49.50%). 

Why UConn Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Jim Mora has been aggressive in the transfer portal, bringing in over 20 new players, including former high-three or four-star recruits at skill positions, which could significantly elevate the team’s overall talent.
2. The defense shows potential for further improvement, with eight of the 14 players who saw 300-plus snaps returning, and the addition of strong transfers like Jayden McDonald from Troy and Julien Simon from Tulsa.
3. The schedule features several winnable games, particularly in the middle stretch, with home games against FAU, Buffalo, and Temple, providing a realistic path to surpassing their win total.

Why UConn Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. UConn’s offense is still seeking stability, especially at the quarterback position, with uncertainties surrounding whether Nick Evers or Joe Fagnano can effectively lead the team.
2. The offensive line may not have what it takes to support a consistent offensive attack, which could hinder both the passing and running games.
3. Despite the transfer additions, the Huskies’ roster is still not where Mora wants it to be, and the lack of continuity and cohesion among new players could result in underperformance against more cohesive teams.

Their rating is 118, projected wins are 5.16 (over), with 3 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

UMass Minutemen

Current Win Total is 3.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -115 to go over (implied probability: 53.49%) and -105 to go under (implied probability: 51.22%). 

Why UMass Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Don Brown has infused the roster with talent through the transfer portal, bringing in 10 former blue-chippers and several smaller-school playmakers, potentially raising the overall talent level.
2. The return of quarterback Taisun Phommachanh, along with a bolstered receiving corps featuring transfers like Frank Ladson Jr. (Miami) and Keshawn Brown (Duquesne), could provide the offensive stability and explosiveness they need.
3. UMass’s schedule includes several winnable games early in the season against teams like Eastern Michigan, Central Connecticut State, and Wagner, setting them up for a potential run at exceeding their win total.

Why UMass Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite the influx of talent, the Minutemen face significant losses with eight starters leaving, including key players on both sides of the ball, which could hinder their cohesion and overall performance.
2. The defense, while aggressive, struggled mightily against the run last season and may not have enough depth or size to make significant improvements, especially with tough opponents like Mississippi State and Georgia on the schedule.
3. The offense, although improved, still lacks proven continuity and effectiveness, and relying heavily on new transfers might not yield immediate results, leading to inconsistent performances throughout the season.

Their rating is 126, projected wins are 4.15 (over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 3 toss-up games.

 

Now we’ll move into the Pac 2… 

Oregon State Beavers

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +106 to go over (implied probability: 48.54%) and -130 to go under (implied probability: 56.52%). 

Why Oregon State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Trent Bray inherits a team that has experienced recent success, including three consecutive winning seasons, and retains enough talent to compete, especially with a promising quarterback competition between Ben Gulbranson and Idaho transfer Gevani McCoy.
2. Despite a significant roster overhaul, the Beavers’ schedule is favorable, with SP+ projecting them as favorites in nine out of twelve games, and the addition of transfers like Jam Griffin (Ole Miss) and Kobe Singleton (Liberty) bolsters key positions.
3. The secondary, anchored by standout cornerbacks Jaden Robinson and Kobe Singleton, should provide a solid foundation for a defense looking to maintain its aggressive style under Bray’s leadership.

Why Oregon State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The loss of head coach Jonathan Smith, quarterback DJ Uiagalelei, and several key starters leaves Oregon State with major uncertainties, especially considering they rank 127th in returning production.
2. The defensive front six faces a complete overhaul with the departure of nine players who logged significant snaps last season, which could lead to struggles against both the run and the pass.
3. While there is talent on the roster, the significant reliance on transfers and newcomers, along with a first-year head coach, might hinder the team’s cohesion and performance, especially against tougher opponents like Boise State and Oregon.

Their rating is 47, projected wins are 7.78 (slightly over), with 9 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Washington State Cougars

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -105 to go over (implied probability: 51.22%) and -115 to go under (implied probability: 53.49%). 

Why Washington State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Head coach Jake Dickert has established a solid foundation, and the team has a favorable schedule that projects them as favorites in most games, with a manageable Mountain West-heavy slate.
2. The offensive line returns four starters, providing stability and protection for either John Mateer or the experienced FCS transfer Zevi Eckhaus, who both have potential to emerge as reliable quarterbacks.
3. With an infusion of FBS and FCS transfer talent, including receiver Kris Hutson (Oregon) and defensive end Syrus Webster (Utah Tech), the Cougars have bolstered key positions with players capable of making an immediate impact.

Why Washington State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Cougars lost significant production on both sides of the ball, including star quarterback Cam Ward and key defensive players, making it challenging to maintain their previous level of performance.
2. The skill positions, especially at running back and wide receiver, are filled with new faces who might struggle to quickly gel and produce consistently, impacting the overall offensive output.
3. Defensive concerns are prominent, with the departure of standout edge rushers and a thin cornerback unit, potentially leading to vulnerabilities against stronger offensive teams on their schedule.

Their rating is 57, projected wins are 7.76 (slightly over), with 7 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games

 

There’s no conference title game for any of these 5 teams, and, outside of Notre Dame, the odds to make the playoff are pretty slim… but every single one of these teams should at least be interesting to keep up with.  I imagine there will be more on the realignment front with Oregon St, Washington St and UConn, as UMass is heading to the MAC in 2025.  Notre Dame is apparently going to be independent for as long as they can be… but around 2030 or 2031, they’ll probably be a part of the new college football super league, whenever that comes to fruition.

 

Alright – let’s wrap this up.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

 

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.