Watch the video here: https://youtu.be/a0qJdUvTijg

 

Our next 2024 conference preview takes us to the C-USA! Conference USA. And this conference is adding new members every single year, it seems…

 

…this year, they welcome the Kennesaw State Owls, and next season will be Delaware, but we’re not worried about the Blue Hens right now. 

 

C-USA has 7 of 10 teams rated from #114 to #134, but there’s 3 schools that prop it up a little bit.  And of course, Liberty towers above the rest from a coaching and resources standpoint.

 

Before we get into it, you guys know what to do…

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Florida International Panthers

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +140 to go over (implied probability: 41.67%) and -170 to go under (implied probability: 62.96%). Conference odds are +10000 with an implied probability of 0.99%. 

Why Florida International Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Mike MacIntyre has a history of turning programs around by his third or fourth year, and he’s already shown signs of improvement at FIU with back-to-back 4-8 seasons after a dismal stretch.
2. The Panthers bring back six offensive linemen with starting experience and a promising young quarterback, Keyone Jenkins, who showed flashes of potential late in the season.
3. With a high ranking in returning production, second in CUSA, and nine games projected to be within one score, they have the pieces and opportunities to turn close losses into wins.

Why Florida International Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite some signs of progress, FIU still ranked in the 120s in SP+ last season and relied heavily on winning close games, which is not a sustainable strategy.
2. The team lost several key players, including star receiver Kris Mitchell to Notre Dame and top linemen and defenders to Power Five programs, which will be difficult to replace.
3. The new coordinators, while experienced, have not had recent success, and the roster still has significant gaps, particularly on defense, which struggled mightily last season.

Their rating is 129, Conference rating is 9, projected wins are 4.64 (slightly over), with 3 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Current Win Total is 8, opened at 7.5, with odds of -110 to go over (implied probability: 52.38%) and -120 to go under (implied probability: 54.55%). Conference odds are +500 with an implied probability of 16.67%. 

Why Jacksonville State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Rich Rodriguez has a proven track record of turning programs around, and in just two years, he led Jacksonville State to a successful first season in FBS, winning nine games and a bowl game.
2. The offense is reloading with intriguing transfers like Tyler Huff from Furman and Zion Turner from UConn, and they retain all-conference guard Clay Webb, which should keep their powerful run game effective.
3. Despite losing some key defensive players, the addition of experienced transfers and the hiring of Luke Olson as the new defensive coordinator with his aggressive 3-3-5 scheme can maintain a solid defensive performance.

Why Jacksonville State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The team is only bringing back nine starters, and losing key players like quarterback Zion Webb and star defensive end Chris Hardie will be difficult to overcome.
2. The defense, which was a strength last year, is seeing significant turnover, including the departure of their defensive coordinator and several top defenders transferring to Power Five schools.
3. With a challenging schedule that includes road games at Louisville, Liberty, and Western Kentucky, the Gamecocks may struggle to replicate their previous success against tougher competition.

Their rating is 86, Conference rating is 2, projected wins are 7.09 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

Kennesaw State Owls

Current Win Total is 2.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -110 to go over (implied probability: 52.38%) and -120 to go under (implied probability: 54.55%). And because they’re transitioning from FCS to FBS, they’re not eligible to win the conference title, if my memory serves correct.

Why Kennesaw State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Head coach Brian Bohannon has a strong track record, leading Kennesaw State to four seasons with at least 11 wins in their first five years and crafting a unique, effective option-based offense that can control the game tempo.
2. The team returns 15 starters, including key playmakers like running back Michael Benefield and receiver Gabriel Benyard, who have shown significant potential to create big plays.
3. With a recruiting hotbed in the Atlanta area and some solid transfers, the Owls have a decent foundation to build on and should be competitive in winnable games against teams like UT Martin, Sam Houston State, and FIU.

Why Kennesaw State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Owls struggled last season, winning only three games, all against Division II opponents, and they face a significant challenge transitioning to FBS competition.
2. They lost their starting quarterback Jonathan Murphy and will be relying on new, less experienced players in key positions, which could hamper their offensive consistency.
3. Despite their strong returning production, the team is relatively inexperienced at the FBS level, and the overall roster strength ranks them at the bottom of the Conference USA, indicating a tough road ahead.

Their rating is 134 -dead last, Conference rating is 10, projected wins are actually 3.14 (over), with 2 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

Liberty Flames

Current Win Total is 10.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -130 to go over (implied probability: 56.52%) and +100 to go under (implied probability: 50.0%). Conference odds are -200 with an implied probability of 66.67%. 

Why Liberty Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. With head coach Jamey Chadwell’s proven track record and the dynamic duo of quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley, Liberty boasts one of the best offensive units in the Group of Five.
2. The Flames are favored in all 12 of their games this season, including key matchups against Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky at home, making an undefeated regular season a realistic goal.
3. Liberty has the highest roster strength in Conference USA, and their defense, bolstered by power-conference transfers, should be improved enough to support their high-powered offense.

Why Liberty Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense has notable gaps, particularly in the secondary, where they lost key players like Preston Hodge and Kobe Singleton, which could make them vulnerable against strong offensive teams.
2. The offensive line is undergoing significant changes with the loss of two standout guards and their left tackle transferring to Vanderbilt, potentially disrupting their offensive rhythm.
3. Liberty’s schedule, while not daunting, includes a challenging road game against App State and a potential for regression after an incredible 13-1 season, making it difficult to replicate such success.

Their rating is 52, Conference rating is 1, projected wins are 10.21 (slightly under), with 11 games as projected favorites and 1 toss-up game.

 

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Louisiana Tech: Current Win Total is 5 (up from the opener of 4.5), with odds of -105 to go over (implied probability: 51.22%) and -125 to go under (implied probability: 55.56%). Conference odds are +2500 with an implied probability of 3.85%. 

Why Louisiana Tech Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. With key offensive players like running back Marquis Crosby returning from injury and a promising skill corps bolstered by transfers, the Bulldogs have the potential to rejuvenate their offensive attack.
2. The defensive unit, though inexperienced, includes solid returning linemen Mykol Clark and Zion Nason, and the addition of impactful transfers like linebackers CJ Harris and Sifa Leota should strengthen the defense.
3. Head coach Sonny Cumbie has improved the team’s depth significantly from last year, increasing scholarship players from 32 to 62, which could lead to better overall performance and more competitive games.

Why Louisiana Tech Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The team is still dealing with a lack of consistency at quarterback, with Jack Turner, Evan Bullock, and Ty Keyes all vying for the starting position, which could lead to ongoing instability in the offense.
2. Louisiana Tech’s defense, despite some improvements, remains a major concern as they ranked poorly last season and lost their top four tacklers, putting significant pressure on unproven players and new transfers.
3. The Bulldogs have struggled to win close games, going 1-7 in one-possession games over the past two years, and their tendency to commit penalties and turnovers could continue to cost them crucial victories.

Their rating is 121, Conference rating is 5, projected wins are 5.24 (slightly over), with 6 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Current Win Total is 5 (up from 4.5 opener), with odds of -105 to go over (implied probability: 51.22%) and -125 to go under (implied probability: 55.56%). Conference odds are +2500 with an implied probability of 3.85%. 

Why Middle Tennessee Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Derek Mason inherits a solid offensive core, including dual-threat quarterback Nicholas Vattiato and standout slot receiver Holden Willis, which could lead to an explosive offense under veteran coordinator Bodie Reeder.
2. The addition of quality transfers like Omari Kelly from Auburn could bolster the receiving corps, providing more weapons and improving the overall offense.
3. Despite the tough non-conference schedule, the back half of the season features more winnable games, potentially allowing the Blue Raiders to gain momentum and finish strong.

Why Middle Tennessee Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The team faces significant challenges with a new head coach and coordinators, and a roster lacking in returning production, particularly on the offensive line and defensive front.
2. The defense, which has been inconsistent and ranked poorly in recent years, lost key players to the transfer portal, making it difficult for Derek Mason to immediately turn things around.
3. A tough start to the season with four of the first five games as underdogs could put the Blue Raiders in an early hole, making it challenging to recover and achieve a winning record.

Their rating is 114, Conference rating is 4, projected wins are 5.12 (slightly over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

New Mexico State Aggies

Current Win Total is 4.5 with odds of +130 to go over (implied probability: 43.48%) and -160 to go under (implied probability: 61.54%). Conference odds are +5000 with an implied probability of 1.96%.

Why New Mexico State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite massive roster turnover, the offensive line remains intact with all five starters returning, providing a strong foundation for both the run and pass games.
2. The addition of playmakers like running back Monte Watkins, who averaged nearly 10 yards per carry, and Buffalo transfer Mike Washington could create an effective ground attack.
3. Tony Sanchez, a New Mexico State alum, brings valuable experience and a deep connection to the program, potentially fostering a resilient team culture that can eke out wins in a balanced Conference USA.

Why New Mexico State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Aggies face significant challenges with nearly their entire starting lineup from last year’s successful season having transferred out, including key positions like quarterback and top skill players.
2. The defensive side has been gutted, losing 15 of their top 18 tacklers, which will be difficult to replace in just one offseason, especially with a new coaching staff trying to implement their system.
3. The uncertainty at the quarterback position, with no clear leader emerging from the spring, coupled with a lack of returning production, suggests that the offense may struggle to replicate last year’s explosive performance.

Their rating is 125, Conference rating is 8, projected wins are 5.01 (slightly over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Sam Houston State

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -140 to go over (implied probability: 58.33%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Conference odds are +2000 with an implied probability of 4.76%. 

Why Sam Houston Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. With top-20 returning production and key offensive weapons like receivers Noah Smith, Simeon Evans, and a healthy Ife Adeyi, the Bearkats are poised for significant improvement, especially with a solid offensive line returning intact.
2. Central Michigan transfer quarterback Jase Bauer brings experience and versatility to an offense that struggled last year, potentially providing the spark needed to convert close losses into wins.
3. K.C. Keeler’s proven track record and the team’s strong finish last season, winning three of their last four games, suggest they have the resilience and momentum to exceed expectations.

Why Sam Houston Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite the high returning production, the defense is replacing most of its starters, which could lead to struggles in maintaining consistency and effectiveness on that side of the ball.
2. The Bearkats lost crucial games by narrow margins last season, and unless they significantly improve their execution in close contests, they might continue to fall short.
3. New quarterback Jase Bauer, while experienced, still faces the challenge of integrating into a new system and gelling with his teammates, which might take time and result in early-season growing pains.

Their rating is 122, Conference rating is 6, projected wins are 4.31 (slightly under), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

UTEP Miners

Current Win Total is 4 (down from the 4.5 opener), with odds of -120 to go over (implied probability: 54.55%) and -110 to go under (implied probability: 52.38.0%). Conference odds are +6000 with an implied probability of 1.64%. 

Why UTEP Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Scotty Walden’s dynamic coaching style and successful track record at Austin Peay bring fresh energy and a proven offensive scheme, potentially translating into immediate improvement for the Miners.
2. The influx of 12 Austin Peay transfers, including standout players like 1,400-yard rusher Jevon Jackson and several key receivers, could quickly bolster UTEP’s offense, providing a much-needed spark.
3. The return of standout defensive players like OLB Maurice Westmoreland, along with the addition of experienced transfers, suggests the defense can maintain competitiveness while the offense finds its footing.

Why UTEP Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Miners face significant roster turnover, with the top three rushers, top four pass-catchers, and top six linemen all gone, creating potential challenges in achieving immediate cohesion and effectiveness.
2. Despite bringing in a high number of transfers, the overall lack of FBS experience among the new recruits could lead to a tough adjustment period, especially in the highly competitive Conference USA.
3. The offensive line, featuring many new starters, might struggle to protect the quarterback and establish a consistent running game, hindering the effectiveness of Walden’s offensive system in its first year.

Their rating is 123, Conference rating is 7, projected wins are 4.51 (slightly over), with 5 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -115 to go over (implied probability: 53.49%) and -115 to go under (implied probability: 53.49%). Conference odds are +450 with an implied probability of 18.18%. 

Why Western Kentucky Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite losing key players like Austin Reed and Malachi Corley, the addition of experienced QB TJ Finley, who threw for 3,439 yards at Texas State, should keep the offense productive and dynamic.
2. The offensive line is solid with three returning starters and talented transfers like Blake Austin, providing stability and protection for the passing game.
3. The defense, while needing to replace several key players, has bolstered its ranks with impactful transfers from SEC schools, which could improve overall performance and help the Hilltoppers remain competitive in most games.

Why Western Kentucky Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The loss of explosive playmakers like Reed and Corley could lead to inconsistencies in the offense, especially if the new starters can’t replicate their production.
2. The defense, which has struggled in the past, faces significant turnover and may need time to gel, potentially leading to vulnerabilities early in the season.
3. The schedule includes tough non-conference games against Alabama and Boston College, as well as challenging CUSA matchups, which could hinder their ability to surpass last year’s win total.

Their rating is 89, Conference rating is 3, projected wins are 6.93 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

As far as the conference title game… I’m like everyone else… I think Liberty wins it, but I’m going to take Rich Rod and the Jacksonville State Gamecocks to get to the title game and challenge for it.  I know Jax St has to travel to Western Kentucky in the last game of the year, but I honestly think they could have 2nd place wrapped up by then. And Liberty -200 to win the conference?  They’ll be heavier favorites than that when we get to championship weekend, regardless of who they’re playing, so I’d go ahead and lay it.

 

Alright – let’s get outta here.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

 

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.