Watch the video here: https://youtu.be/PoDXLBXKhYM

 

We’re starting our 2024 conference previews with some MACTION! And, unfortunately, my lowest rated conference for the 2024 college football season…

 

…I don’t feel like it should be a surprise that they’re the lowest rated conference, with the constant amount of roster turnover, the lack of recruiting resources, etc. 

 

One thing MACtion does have going for it is the fact that there was only one coaching change after the 2023 season, and that was only because Buffalo’s coach, Mo Linguist, took a co-DC job at Alabama.  Not a single coach was fired, despite only 3 of the coaches having .500 or better overall records at their schools.

 

Before we get into it, you guys know what to do…

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Akron Zips

Win Total is 3.5, with odds of +100 to go over (implied probability: 50.0%) and -122 to go under (implied probability: 54.95%).

Reasons Akron Zips Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Joe Moorhead’s offensive expertise could finally click this year, especially with the addition of veteran Cal transfer quarterback Ben Finley, who brings experience and potential stability to the quarterback position.
2. The defense showed significant improvement last season, ranking 37th in rushing success rate allowed, and with key players like DE C.J. Nunnally IV and linebackers Antavious Fish and Bryan McCoy returning, the unit could keep the Zips competitive in close games.
3. The transfer additions, including promising players like Oregon transfer Daymon David and Michigan State transfer running back Jordan Simmons, might inject much-needed talent and depth into the roster, potentially leading to a few unexpected wins.

Reasons Akron Zips Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense faces major challenges, having to replace key players including the leading passer, two leading rushers, three leading receivers, and three starting linemen, which could lead to significant struggles in offensive production.
2. The secondary is a major question mark with the loss of five of last year’s top six defensive backs, which could result in vulnerabilities against strong passing offenses in the MAC.
3. Akron’s non-conference schedule is brutal, including matchups against Ohio State, Rutgers, and South Carolina, making it difficult to gain early momentum and confidence, potentially leading to another disappointing season.

 

Their rating is 132, Conference Rating is 12, projected wins are 3.7 (slightly over), with 1 projected favorite and 5 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are 100 to 1.

 

Ball State Cardinals

Win Total is 4.5, with odds of +152 to go over (implied probability: 39.68%) and -188 to go under (implied probability: 65.12%). 

Reasons Ball State Cardinals Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offensive line’s continuity, with five returning starters, could provide a solid foundation for quarterback Kiael Kelly to lead a rejuvenated offense, especially with new weapons like slot receiver Qian Magwood and Eastern Illinois transfer Justin Bowick.
2. Despite losing key defensive personnel, the team’s core players, such as linebacker Keontay Newsom, offer leadership and experience that could help integrate the new additions and maintain a competitive defense.
3. Head coach Mike Neu has shown the ability to adapt and improve, as evidenced by the Cardinals’ strong finish last season, and a softer non-conference schedule compared to other MAC teams might offer early wins and momentum.

Reasons Ball State Cardinals Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense is in a precarious position with significant turnover, including the loss of coordinator Tyler Stockton and a majority of starters, which could lead to a substantial regression from last year’s performance.
2. The Cardinals face a grueling early schedule, with five of their first six games on the road, where they are likely to be underdogs, making it difficult to build confidence and secure wins.
3. Offensive struggles from last season might persist, especially with the departure of key players like their top running back Marquess Cooper, leaving the team to rely heavily on unproven talents and new transfers to fill critical roles.

Their rating is 116, Conference Rating is 9, projected wins are 4.56 (slightly over), with 3 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are 30 to 1.

 

Bowling Green Falcons

Win Total is 6.5, with odds of +104 to go over (implied probability: 49.02%) and -132 to go under (implied probability: 56.9%).

Reasons Bowling Green Falcons Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The experienced core, including quarterback Connor Bazelak and four returning offensive linemen, provides a solid foundation for the offense, which also boasts explosive players like running back Terion Stewart and tight end Harold Fannin Jr.
2. The defense, despite some losses, remains formidable with a senior-laden line and standout players like corner Jordan Oladokun and NIU transfer safety CJ Brown, who can continue the aggressive, turnover-heavy play that ranked them first nationally in takeaways last year.
3. With a favorable schedule that sees them potentially favored in up to eight games, Bowling Green is well-positioned to build on last year’s success and push for a higher win total, making a strong case for a MAC title run.

Reasons Bowling Green Falcons Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense’s reliance on big plays and its vulnerability to negative ones could lead to inconsistency, especially if injuries affect key players like Bazelak or Stewart, who missed spring practice.
2. Defensive losses, including key contributors like 10-sack edge rusher Cashius Howell, might lead to regression in their ability to pressure the quarterback and cover the secondary, potentially exposing them to big plays.
3. Tough non-conference games against Penn State and Texas A&M, along with the pressure to perform in close conference games, could make it challenging for Bowling Green to exceed their projected win total and maintain momentum throughout the season.

I’ve got Bowling Green rated #92 nationally, and #3 in the MAC… but I don’t like the schedule.  I’ve got them projected with 6.37 wins, so under the 6.5… although I’m pretty bullish on their odds to win the conference at +650. I’ve got em favored in 8 games… but I’m showing them having 8 toss ups… so a ton of one score games.

 

Buffalo Bulls

Win Total is 4.5, with odds of -142 to go over (implied probability: 58.68%) and +116 to go under (implied probability: 46.3%).

Reasons Buffalo Bulls Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Pete Lembo’s extensive experience and successful track record, particularly in special teams, could provide the discipline and strategic edge needed to turn close games into wins, especially with defensive leaders like Shaun Dolac and Red Murdock anchoring a solid unit.
2. The Bulls’ defense, which showed promise last year, is bolstered by returning key players and intriguing transfers, potentially making them one of the stronger defensive units in the MAC, capable of keeping games close and winnable.
3. With a more favorable schedule and winnable games against teams like Lafayette, UMass, and UConn, Buffalo has a clear path to surpass their projected win total if they can capitalize on these matchups.

Reasons Buffalo Bulls Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense, which was one of the worst in the nation last year and has lost all its starting skill position players, faces significant uncertainty, particularly at quarterback, where unproven players like CJ Ogbonna and Jack Shields must quickly adapt and perform.
2. Despite some promising defensive pieces, the loss of key contributors like leading tackler Andrew Cenac and leading pass rusher Devin Grant could hinder the unit’s effectiveness, making it difficult to maintain last year’s defensive performance.
3. The lack of offensive playmakers and depth, especially with a thin running back corps and an unsettled quarterback situation, might result in continued struggles to score points, limiting Buffalo’s ability to win close games and surpass their win total.

Their rating is 115, Conference Rating is 7, projected wins are 5.69 (over) – higher than I anticipated, with 6 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are 30 to 1.

 

Central Michigan Chippewas

Win Total is 5.5, with odds of -140 to go over (implied probability: 58.33%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). 

Reasons Central Michigan Chippewas Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. has shown flashes of brilliance and explosive potential, and if he can stay healthy and develop his passing game, he could be a game-changer for the Chippewas’ offense, which also returns a solid core of skill players and experienced linemen.
2. The continuity in the offensive unit, with key players like running back Marion Lukes and top receivers Jesse Prewitt III, Tyson Davis, and Chris Parker all returning, provides a strong foundation for offensive improvement and more consistent scoring.
3. A manageable non-conference schedule, including winnable games against Central Connecticut and FIU, offers the Chippewas a good opportunity to build early momentum and secure crucial wins before heading into the tougher MAC play.

Reasons Central Michigan Chippewas Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense, which struggled significantly last season and lost its top four players, including standout defensive tackle Robi Bristol, might not have the depth or talent to stop opposing offenses, leading to continued vulnerabilities.
2. The tough MAC schedule, with road games against top teams like Miami (Ohio), Toledo, and Northern Illinois, poses a significant challenge, making it difficult for Central Michigan to secure the necessary wins for bowl eligibility.
3. Uncertainty at the quarterback position, with Bert Emanuel Jr. needing to prove his consistency as a passer and competition from Iowa transfer Joe Labas, could lead to instability and hinder the offensive unit’s ability to perform at a high level throughout the season.

Their rating is 119, Conference Rating is 9, projected wins are 5.29 (under), with 5 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are 18 to 1.

 

Eastern Michigan Eagles

Win Total is 4.5, with odds of -118 to go over (implied probability: 54.13%) and -104 to go under (implied probability: 51.17%). 

Reasons Eastern Michigan Eagles Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The influx of experienced transfers, including quarterback Cole Snyder from Buffalo and running back Delbert Mimms III from NC State, brings a much-needed boost to the offense, potentially addressing last season’s struggles and providing the team with a fresh start.
2. Chris Creighton has a proven track record of developing under-recruited talent and finding success, evidenced by six bowl games in eight seasons, and his ability to maximize the potential of his players might turn this team into a surprise contender.
3. The defense, which ranked 67th in defensive SP+ last year, retains key players like end Justin Jefferson and tackle Peyton Price, and the addition of experienced transfers and juco players could help maintain or even improve their defensive performance.

Reasons Eastern Michigan Eagles Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense was among the worst in the nation last season, ranking 130th in offensive SP+, and with significant turnover and reliance on new, unproven players, it’s uncertain whether they can significantly improve this year.
2. Losing key players like running backs Samson Evans and Jaylen Jackson, along with their top wide receiver Tanner Knue, might leave the offense struggling to find playmakers and consistency, making it difficult to score points.
3. Despite Creighton’s success, the team’s low returning production and the challenging MAC schedule, including road games against tough opponents like UMass and Washington, could result in a regression and prevent them from reaching bowl eligibility.

Their rating is 120, Conference Rating is 10, projected wins are 5.37 (over), with 5 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are 30 to 1.

 

Kent State Golden Flashes

Win Total is 2.5, with odds of -158 to go over (implied probability: 61.24%) and +128 to go under (implied probability: 43.86%).

Reasons Kent State Golden Flashes Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offensive line returns all five starters, which could provide much-needed stability and improvement for an offense that struggled last season, potentially helping the team stay competitive in more games.
2. Sophomore receiver Chrishon McCray is a standout talent who can make big plays if the quarterbacks, like Tommy Ulatowski or Devin Kargman, can get him the ball consistently, giving the offense a dynamic threat.
3. The addition of running back Kai Thomas, who has experience at Minnesota and Kansas, adds depth and potential explosiveness to the backfield, complementing returning top rusher Gavin Garcia and improving the ground game.

Reasons Kent State Golden Flashes Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense is severely lacking in returning talent and experience, especially with the loss of their best defensive player, CJ West, which could lead to continued struggles in stopping opponents and keeping games close.
2. The tough non-conference schedule, including road games against Pittsburgh, Tennessee, and Penn State, is likely to result in early season losses, making it difficult for the team to build confidence and momentum.
3. Significant coaching staff turnover, with new coordinators and several new position coaches, might lead to a lack of continuity and cohesion, hindering the team’s ability to improve from last year’s dismal performance.

Their rating is 131, Conference Rating is 11, projected wins are 3.29 (over), with 2 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are the same as Akron’s – 100 to 1.

 

Miami OH Redhawks

Win Total is 7.5, with odds of -144 to go over (implied probability: 59.02%) and +118 to go under (implied probability: 45.87%).

Reasons Miami (OH) Redhawks Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense is a standout unit, returning a majority of the defensive line and all primary linebackers, anchored by stars like DE Brian Ugwu and linebacker Matthew Salopek, which should keep them competitive in every game.
2. Brett Gabbert’s return at quarterback, assuming he stays healthy, provides stability and experience, potentially leading to more consistent offensive performance, especially with experienced offensive linemen and key targets like Cade McDonald and Javon Tracy.
3. Despite losing some key players to transfers, the team retains a solid core and has continuity in coaching staff, which should contribute to a strong, cohesive performance throughout the season.

Reasons Miami (OH) Redhawks Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The loss of key defensive backs and the absence of top skill position players like running back Rashad Amos and wide receiver Mac Hippenhammer could make it difficult for Miami to match last year’s defensive and offensive performance.
2. Gabbert’s injury history is a concern, and without a reliable backup like Aveon Smith, the team’s offensive capabilities could be severely compromised if he gets hurt again.
3. The early season schedule is challenging with games against Northwestern, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame, which could lead to a tough start, making it harder to gain momentum and confidence for the rest of the season.

Their rating is 77, Conference Rating is 1, projected wins are 7.42 (slightly under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Northern Illinois Huskies

Win Total is 6.5, with odds of -128 to go over (implied probability: 56.14%) and +104 to go under (implied probability: 49.02%).

Why Northern Illinois Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Huskies’ run game, led by standout running back Antario Brown, will be a force with a seasoned offensive line returning, providing a reliable offensive foundation.
2. The defense, particularly the secondary, is expected to be one of the best in the conference, with nearly all key players returning and solidifying a unit that already ranked sixth in pass defense last season.
3. The team’s overall depth and experience, with 14 returning starters and proven playmakers like Trayvon Rudolph and Grayson Barnes, give them the tools to win close games and outperform expectations.

Why Northern Illinois Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Uncertainty at the quarterback position could hinder offensive consistency, with neither Ethan Hampton nor Jalen Macon having substantial starting experience or proven success.
2. The loss of top defensive linemen could lead to struggles in controlling the line of scrimmage, potentially weakening their run defense and overall defensive effectiveness.
3. The non-conference schedule, featuring challenging games against Notre Dame and NC State, could result in a tough start and put additional pressure on their MAC games to secure bowl eligibility.

Their rating is 93, Conference Rating is 4, projected wins are 6.41 (slightly under), with 8 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Ohio Bobcats

Win Total is 6.5, with odds of +130 to go over (implied probability: 43.48%) and -160 to go under (implied probability: 61.54%). 

Why Ohio Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite significant losses, the Bobcats have a strong track record of overachieving under Albin, and if transfers like Blake Leake and Dustin Johnson step up, the defense could remain formidable.
2. The ground game shows promise with Parker Navarro’s mobility and Rickey Hunt’s breakout potential, especially behind an experienced offensive line.
3. Ohio’s ability to find and develop talent from lower divisions could help them surprise the conference again if their picks turn out to be the right ones.

Why Ohio Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The sheer number of departures, including key players to Power Five programs, leaves massive holes on both sides of the ball, creating a significant challenge to maintain last year’s performance level.
2. With the loss of experienced receivers and crucial linemen, the offense might struggle to maintain consistency, especially if the new faces don’t quickly adjust to FBS competition.
3. The defensive unit, which was a strength last year, has been heavily depleted, and relying on unproven players from lower divisions may not be enough to keep the team competitive against tougher MAC opponents.

Their rating is 108, Conference Rating is 5, projected wins are 6.22 (under), with 6 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games. Odds to win the conference are 9 to 1.

 

Toledo Rockets

Win Total is 8.5, with odds of +136 to go over (implied probability: 42.37%) and -168 to go under (implied probability: 42.74%). 

Why Toledo Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Toledo’s defense, which has been improving dramatically under Vince Kehres, is likely to remain solid despite key departures, with new talent and returning players like Darius Alexander stepping up.
2. The Rockets boast one of the best receiving corps in the MAC, with Jerjuan Newton, Junior Vandeross III, and Anthony Torres providing ample targets for Tucker Gleason.
3. Jason Candle’s recruiting success has brought in the best class in 20 years, ensuring a high talent level that should keep them competitive in most games.

Why Toledo Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The loss of quarterback Dequan Finn and running back Peny Boone, along with the entire starting offensive line, leaves significant gaps that might take time to fill.
2. Despite their defensive strengths, the departure of top players like Quinyon Mitchell and Judge Culpepper could lead to regression in defensive performance.
3. Toledo has a history of underperforming in crucial games, and the lack of returning production (bottom 15 nationally) suggests potential struggles in maintaining last year’s success.

Their rating is 88, Conference Rating is 5, projected wins are 7.84 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games. Odds to win the conference are +280.

 

Western Michigan Broncos

Win Total is 6.5, with odds of -115 to go over (implied probability: 53.49%) and -105 to go under (implied probability: 51.22%). 

Why Western Michigan Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. With 16 returning starters, including leading passer Hayden Wolff, rusher Jalen Buckley, and receiver Kenneth Womack, WMU boasts one of the most experienced rosters in the MAC.
2. The influx of talented transfers, particularly from Power Four schools, strengthens key positions and could lead to significant improvement on both sides of the ball.
3. Lance Taylor’s team showed flashes of offensive potential last season and, with the addition of experienced coordinators Walt Bell and Scott Power, they could finally click consistently.

Why Western Michigan Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Broncos struggled last season, going 4-8 and ranking 121st in SP+, indicating that experience alone might not be enough to turn things around.
2. New coordinators Walt Bell and Scott Power, despite their experience, have not coordinated successful units recently, which could hinder WMU’s development.
3. The challenging start to their schedule, with games against Wisconsin and Ohio State, might lead to early losses and impact team morale and momentum.

Their rating is 111, Conference Rating is 6, projected wins are 6.33 (under), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games. Their odds to win the conference are 7 & ½ to 1.

 

As far as the conference title game… I’m going just a hair off the beaten path.  Give me Bowling Green and Northern Illinois – my #3 and #4 power rated teams, and I’ll take Bowling Green to win the MAC title this year.

Alright – let’s wrap this up.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.