Watch the video: https://youtu.be/CbS4K7s00WM

American Athletic Conference

 

We continue our 2024 conference previews with the AAC, who, for the 2nd straight season, has lost a contender to a Power 4 conference… And by bringing in former C-USA members, the overall rating of the conference has dropped.

 

…but that doesn’t mean that this conference is bad.  There’s plenty of good teams, with some up and comers that are poised to make a statement this season. There’s even a G5 favorite to make the playoff from this conference.

 

But, Before we get into it, you guys know what to do…

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Army Black Knights

Current Win Total is 5.5 (down from the 6.5 opener), with odds of -150 to go over (implied probability: 60.0%) and +128 to go under (implied probability: 43.86%). Conference odds are +2500 with an implied probability of 3.85%. 

Why Army Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The return to a more traditional under-center offense should play to their strengths and fit quarterback Bryson Daily well, allowing the team to leverage their effective rushing attack led by 220-pound sophomore Kanye Udoh.
2. The offensive line has five players with starting experience, which can provide stability and enhance their rushing efficiency, crucial for the option-based offense.
3. Coaching continuity with Jeff Monken in his 11th year and the reappointment of Cody Worley as the play-caller, who led a successful late-season surge last year, bodes well for maintaining and improving team performance.

Why Army Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The transition back to a more traditional offense may take time to fully integrate, and early-season struggles could impact their overall performance.
2. The defense faces significant turnover, with only three returning starters and the challenge of replacing key players like two-time leading tackler Leo Lowin and edge rusher Jackson Powell, which might lead to defensive vulnerabilities.
3. The tougher schedule, including eight conference games, and matchups against Air Force, Notre Dame, and Navy, presents a difficult path to achieving a winning record, making it challenging to exceed six wins.

Their rating is 109, Conference rating is 10, projected wins are 5.67 (slightly over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Charlotte 49ers

Current Win Total is 3.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -142 to go over (implied probability: 58.68%) and +116 to go under (implied probability: 46.3%). Conference odds are +5000 with an implied probability of 1.96%. 

Why Charlotte Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The influx of 27 transfers, including talented players from Power Five programs like QB Max Brown and RB Cartevious Norton, brings an immediate upgrade in talent and potential playmakers to the team.
2. With a seasoned offensive coordinator in Cody Worley and promising offensive additions like WR Justin Olson and TE Corey Dyches, the offense has the potential to improve significantly from last year’s struggles.
3. The defense, despite losing key players, has brought in numerous mid-three and four-star prospects, as well as Division II standout Eltayeb Bushra, which could enhance their overall defensive performance.

Why Charlotte Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The significant turnover in the roster, with 24 transfers out and 27 transfers in, could lead to issues with team chemistry and cohesion, impacting their ability to perform consistently.
2. The loss of their two best defensive players and most of their secondary might result in defensive vulnerabilities, especially against stronger AAC offenses.
3. Despite the influx of talent, the team remains projected at 127th in SP+ with an average of 3.2 wins, indicating that the overall improvement might not be enough to overcome the challenges posed by a tough schedule.

Their rating is 124, Conference rating is 13, projected wins are 3.52 (slightly over), with 1 game as a projected favorite and 5 toss-up games.

 

East Carolina Pirates

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +102 to go over (implied probability: 49.50%) and -124 to go under (implied probability: 55.36%). Conference odds are +2000 with an implied probability of 4.76%. 

Why East Carolina Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense is returning nearly the entire defensive line and several key players in the secondary, which could lead to an even stronger performance than last year’s already solid defense, especially against the run.
2. Despite their poor record in 2023, the Pirates were competitive in several games, with four one-score losses indicating potential for positive regression this season.
3. With three experienced quarterback transfers competing for the starting role and the addition of new offensive coordinator John David Baker, there is potential for significant improvement in the offense.

Why East Carolina Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense was among the worst in college football last year, ranking 132nd in yards per play and 127th in scoring offense, and it’s unclear if the new transfers and coaching changes will be enough to turn things around.
2. The team lost key defensive players, including their leading tackler Julius Wood, which could hinder their ability to maintain last season’s defensive performance.
3. While the schedule is more manageable without Power Five opponents, they still face tough games against strong G5 teams like Appalachian State and Liberty, which could limit their win potential.

Their rating is 102, Conference rating is 7, projected wins are 6.48 (slightly under), with 5 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

FAU Owls

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +108 to go over (implied probability: 48.08%) and -132 to go under (implied probability: 56.90%). Conference odds are +3000 with an implied probability of 3.23%. 

Why FAU Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Soft Schedule: FAU has one of the easiest schedules in the country, playing seven teams projected 109th or worse and only one team better than 76th, giving them ample opportunities to secure wins.
2. Potential of Transfers: The influx of 27 new transfers, including experienced players like QB Cameron Fancher and RB Cartevious Norton, could provide the boost in talent and depth needed to outperform last season.
3. Experienced Coaching: Tom Herman’s second year might bring better results as he settles into the program, combined with the expertise of new additions like safety Phillip Dunnam and defensive tackle Bryce Langston.

Why FAU Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Massive Turnover: FAU ranks 121st in returning production and is undergoing significant roster changes, which could lead to a lack of cohesion and struggles early in the season.
2. Offensive Struggles: The offense has numerous question marks, including a quarterback competition and an almost entirely new offensive line, which might not gel quickly enough to improve significantly from last year’s performance.
3. Loss of Key Players: Losing top contributors, including their main quarterback, leading rushers, top receivers, and key defensive players, creates uncertainty about the team’s ability to perform at a high level consistently.

Their rating is 101, Conference rating is 6, projected wins are 6.5 (right on the number), with 7 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Memphis Tigers

Current Win Total is 9.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +146 to go over (implied probability: 40.65%) and -180 to go under (implied probability: 64.29%). Conference odds are +230 with an implied probability of 30.3%.

Why Memphis Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Offensive Firepower: Memphis returns 3,800-yard passer Seth Henigan and top receivers Roc Taylor and Demeer Blankumsee, forming one of the most potent offenses in the AAC.
2. Transfer Talent: The addition of 29 transfers, including impact players like Tennessee’s leading tackler Elijah Herring and South Carolina’s leading rusher Mario Anderson, significantly boosts the team’s talent and depth.
3. Experienced Defense: With 12 of the 19 defensive starters from last year returning, combined with new defensive talent from the transfer portal, Memphis has the potential to improve its defensive performance substantially.

Why Memphis Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Tough Road Games: Memphis faces its four toughest opponents—Florida State, South Florida, UTSA, and Tulane—on the road, which could make securing wins more challenging.
2. Defensive Woes: Despite the influx of talent, the defense ranked 111th last year and allowed over 28 points in eight games; substantial improvement is necessary to support the offense.
3. Chemistry and Cohesion: The extensive roster turnover, with 30 incoming transfers, might result in a lack of team cohesion and chemistry, making it difficult for the team to perform consistently at a high level.

Their rating is 46, Conference rating is 1, projected wins are 8.71 (under), with 10 games as projected favorites and 4 toss-up games.

 

Navy Midshipmen

Current Win Total is 3.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +120 to go over (implied probability: 45.45%) and -148 to go under (implied probability: 59.68%). Conference odds are +3000 with an implied probability of 3.23%. 

Why Navy Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Improved Offensive Coordination: With the hiring of Drew Cronic, who successfully led Mercer to their first FCS playoff appearance, Navy’s offense has the potential for a significant turnaround with his innovative run-heavy and hybrid Wing-T offense.
2. Key Returning Players: Navy returns impactful players on both sides of the ball, including running back Alex Tecza, quarterback Braxton Woodson, and defensive standouts like DE Justin Reed and OLB Luke Pirris, which provides stability and experience.
3. Defensive Strength: Head coach Brian Newberry’s specialty is defense, and with key returnees like safety Rayuan Lane III and corner Dashaun Peele, Navy’s defense, which has been consistently solid, is expected to maintain or improve its performance.

Why Navy Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Offensive Struggles: Despite the new offensive coordinator, Navy’s offense was ranked 126th in offensive SP+ last season, and with the loss of their top two quarterbacks, it might take time for the new system and players to gel.
2. Tough Schedule: Navy’s schedule is challenging, with my projections showing them favored in only three or four games, making it difficult to secure enough wins to go over the win total.
3. High Turnover and Inexperience: The loss of significant players like their top two quarterbacks and middle linebacker Johnny Hodges means that the team will have to rely on less experienced players, which could impact their overall performance and consistency.

Their rating is 113, Conference rating is 12, projected wins are 4.66 (under), with 3 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

North Texas Mean Green

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Conference odds are +2500 with an implied probability of 3.85%. 

Why North Texas Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Strong Offensive Potential: With a healthy 27th ranking in offensive SP+ last year and key returning players like slot receivers Blair Conwright and Landon Sides, along with running back Ikaika Ragsdale, the offense has the potential to perform well under head coach Eric Morris.
2. Recruitment and Transfers: The addition of significant transfers, including former TCU QB Chandler Morris and five transfer linemen, could provide the necessary talent boost and depth to push the team over their win total.
3. Strategic Location and Recruiting: North Texas benefits from being in a prime recruiting location near Texas, giving them access to a pool of talented players who can contribute immediately.

Why North Texas Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Defensive Struggles: The Mean Green ranked last in defensive SP+ last year and have historically struggled on this side of the ball, making it difficult to secure enough wins without significant defensive improvements.
2. High Roster Turnover: With 54 new players joining the team this year, the lack of cohesion and experience together could hinder performance, particularly early in the season as players adjust.
3. Loss of Key Players: Departures of key contributors like QB Chandler Rogers and top wide receiver Jamori Maclin may result in a lack of consistency and playmaking ability on offense, creating challenges in tight games.

Their rating is 103, Conference rating is 8, projected wins are 5.4 (slightly under), with 6 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Rice Owls

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +108 to go under (implied probability: 48.08%). Conference odds are +2000 with an implied probability of 4.76%. 

Why Rice Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Returning Production: With 23 of their top 25 tacklers returning and a solid core of offensive players, including standout RB Dean Connors, Rice boasts one of the highest levels of returning production in the country, setting the stage for continued improvement.
2. Key Transfer Addition: The addition of Temple transfer QB E.J. Warner, son of NFL legend Kurt Warner, could provide the spark needed at quarterback to elevate the offense, especially considering his impressive passing stats at Temple.
3. Favorable Schedule: Rice is likely to be favored in about seven games, meaning the path to their first winning season in a decade is realistic if they can maintain their momentum against beatable opponents.

Why Rice Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Quarterback Uncertainty: While E.J. Warner is a promising addition, he’s unproven at Rice, and any struggles or injuries could derail the offense, especially given the loss of JT Daniels and star receiver Luke McCaffrey.
2. Defensive Losses: Despite the high returning production, losing key defenders like Carol and Devon to Power Five schools could weaken a defense that needs to be strong to support the team’s physical playing style.
3. Limited Upside Against Stronger Teams: Rice has struggled against stronger opponents, going 0-6 against SP+ top 85 teams last season, and with several tough matchups on the schedule, they might find it hard to pull off the upsets needed to exceed their win total.

Their rating is 91, Conference rating is 5, projected wins are 6.64 (slightly over), with 7 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Temple Owls

Current Win Total is 2.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +116 to go over (implied probability: 46.3%) and -142 to go under (implied probability: 58.68%). Conference odds are +18000 with an implied probability of 0.55%. 

Why Temple might go over their win total:

• Transfer Impact: With 13 new transfers, including Rutgers QB Evan Simon and defensive end Diwun Black, Temple has added experience and talent that could provide immediate improvement, particularly in areas of critical need.
• Receiver Continuity: Returning last year’s leading receivers, Dante Wright and Zae Baines, gives whoever wins the quarterback battle reliable targets, which could help stabilize the offense despite significant losses.
• Defensive Line Potential: Diwun Black’s breakout potential, as shown by his six sacks in the spring game, could anchor a defense that desperately needs playmakers, especially with the switch to a 4-3 scheme.

Why Temple might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: Losing EJ Warner, a 3,000-yard passer, leaves a huge void, and the competition between Evan Simon and Forrest Brock may not yield a quarterback capable of consistently moving the offense.
• Defensive Inexperience: With the loss of their top six tacklers and a complete overhaul of the defense, including a scheme change, Temple’s defense could struggle to stop even the most modest offenses, leading to more losses.
• Challenging Schedule: Temple is projected as an underdog in all 12 games, and with little returning production and a nearly rebuilt roster, it’s hard to envision them surpassing even three wins this season.

Their rating is 133 (next to last), Conference rating is 14, projected wins are 2.84 (over), with 0 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Tulane Green Wave

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -152 to go over (implied probability: 60.32%) and +124 to go under (implied probability: 44.64%). Conference odds are +300 with an implied probability of 25%. 

Why Tulane might go over their win total:

• Jon Sumrall’s Proven Track Record: Sumrall has shown he can quickly turn around programs, as evidenced by his success at Troy, where he won 23 games in two seasons. With key transfers like QB Ty Thompson and WR Mario Williams, Tulane’s offense has the potential to remain explosive despite losing key pieces.
• Defensive Continuity: Retaining his Troy defensive coordinator, Greg Gasparato, who led a top-30 defense, ensures Tulane’s defense could maintain or even improve on last year’s solid performance, especially with experienced leaders like Jenkins, Machado, and Grubbs returning.
• Strategic Transfer Portal Use: Sumrall’s aggressive use of the transfer portal, bringing in 21 transfers, including six for the secondary, provides Tulane with the depth and talent to compete at a high level immediately, mitigating the losses of key players.

Why Tulane might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Turnover: The loss of QB Michael Pratt, Tulane’s all-time leading passer, along with the departure of their top three receivers, could lead to significant growing pains on offense, especially if the new pieces don’t gel quickly.
• Secondary Rebuild: While Sumrall has brought in new talent, losing nearly the entire secondary, including the top three players in terms of pass breakups and interceptions, could leave the defense vulnerable, particularly early in the season.
• Regression from Close Wins: Tulane’s 4-0 record in close games last season suggests a potential regression, as winning tight games consistently is often unsustainable, particularly with a new head coach and significant roster turnover.

Their rating is 64, Conference rating is 3, projected wins are 7.29 (slightly under), with 8 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Tulsa Hurricanes

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -118 to go over (implied probability: 54.13%) and -104 to go under (implied probability: 50.98%). Conference odds are +4000 with an implied probability of 2.44%. 

Why Tulsa might go over their win total:

• Quarterback Depth: With veteran Cooper Legas joining a quarterback room that includes promising sophomores like Cardell Williams and Kirk Francis, Tulsa’s offense has the potential to stabilize and improve significantly from last year, especially with Francis showing flashes late in the season.
• Returning Offensive Weapons: Bringing back leading rusher Anthony Watkins and reliable wide receiver Kamdyn Benjamin, who finished the season on a tear, gives the Golden Hurricane a solid foundation to build on offensively, particularly with the addition of big-play threats like UTEP transfer Jeremiah Ballard.
• Recruiting Momentum: Signing the 54th-ranked recruiting class, their best in 25 years, shows that Kevin Wilson is starting to bring in the talent needed to elevate the program, which could lead to quicker-than-expected improvements, especially in the wide-open AAC.

Why Tulsa might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Rebuild: The defense, which was one of the worst in FBS last season, lost nearly all of its top performers, including the leading tackler and top pass rusher. The influx of transfers may not be enough to offset the massive loss in production.
• Offensive Line Concerns: With only two returning starters on the offensive line, trench play remains a significant question mark, and without solid protection, even a talented quarterback room may struggle to execute consistently.
• Tough Schedule: With six of their games projected to be decided by six points or less, Tulsa’s margin for error is razor-thin, and without substantial improvements in key areas, they could easily find themselves on the wrong side of those close contests.

Their rating is 112, Conference rating is 11, projected wins are 5.42 (over), with 5 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

UAB Blazers

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +122 to go over (implied probability: 45.05%) and -150 to go under (implied probability: 60.0%). Conference odds are +3000 with an implied probability of 3.23%. 

Why UAB might go over their win total:

• Offensive Consistency: With QB Jacob Zeno returning after a season where he completed nearly 74% of his passes, UAB’s offense is poised to build on its success, especially with four starters back on the offensive line, ensuring stability and protection.
• Running Back Depth: Despite losing Jermaine Brown, the Blazers have a deep and capable backfield with Isaiah Jacobs, Lee Beebe, and LSU transfer Armani Goodwin, who all bring versatility and explosiveness, making the running game a potential strength.
• Favorable Schedule: UAB is expected to be favored in at least six games, and with a more experienced team and the return of both coordinators, there’s a strong possibility they can exceed last year’s win total and secure a bowl game.

Why UAB might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Woes: UAB’s defense, which ranked 130th in points allowed per game last season, faces even more uncertainty with the loss of key players, including both starting cornerbacks, making it difficult to see substantial improvement on that side of the ball.
• Turnover Issues: While Zeno had a strong completion rate, his 13 turnovers last season were costly, and if those issues persist, the offense’s potential could be undermined by crucial mistakes, especially in close games.
• Coaching Concerns: Trent Dilfer’s controversial hire and the struggles in his first year have left doubts about his ability to elevate the program, and if his sideline behavior or inexperience continues to be an issue, UAB could struggle to reach bowl eligibility, let alone exceed it.

Their rating is 104, Conference rating is 9, projected wins are 5.79 (under), with 6 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

USF Bulls

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +118 to go over (implied probability: 45.87%) and -144 to go under (implied probability: 59.02%). Conference odds are +700 with an implied probability of 12.5%.

Why South Florida might go over their win total:

• Quarterback Excellence: With Byrum Brown returning after a breakout season where he threw for nearly 3,300 yards and added another 1,033 on the ground, USF’s offense is primed to be one of the most explosive in the AAC, especially with the experience and dual-threat ability Brown brings to the table.
• Returning Production: Ranking eighth nationally in returning production, USF brings back almost all of their key contributors, including four starting offensive linemen and 10 defensive players with significant snaps, giving them a strong foundation to build on last season’s success.
• Recruiting Momentum: Signing their best recruiting class in a decade and the top group in the entire G5, USF is stacking talent that can contribute immediately and provide depth, especially in a conference where depth often makes the difference in close games.

Why South Florida might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Fragility: Despite improvements, USF’s defense still ranked poorly last season, and while they return several key players, the unit gave up too many big plays, and any defensive lapses could derail their progress, especially against tougher competition.
• Offensive Line Concerns: The offensive line allowed 43 sacks last season, and although four starters return, the departure of their top lineman, Donovan Jennings, raises concerns about whether they can protect Brown well enough to fully unlock his potential.
• Tough Early Schedule: The first half of the season includes brutal matchups against Alabama, Miami, and Tulane, which could put them in an early hole and make it difficult to generate the momentum needed to exceed their win total, despite a favorable back half of the schedule.

Their rating is 85, Conference rating is 4, projected wins are 6.53 (under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

UTSA Roadrunners

Current Win Total is 8.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +118 to go over (implied probability: 45.87%) and -144 to go under (implied probability: 59.02%). Conference odds are +500 with an implied probability of 16.67%. 

Why UTSA might go over their win total:

• Offensive Firepower: Even with the departure of Frank Harris, the Roadrunners have a solid QB option in Owen McCown, who impressed in the bowl win over Marshall, and a deep running back room that combined for nearly 1,800 yards and 23 touchdowns last season, giving the offense plenty of firepower to stay competitive.
• Defensive Potential: Despite losing key players, UTSA returns 11 defenders who saw significant snaps last year, including standout playmakers like Joseph Evans and Jimmori Robinson, who had 11 TFLs; their ability to disrupt opposing offenses could keep UTSA in every game.
• Favorable Schedule: With the potential to be favored in up to 10 games, UTSA has a schedule that sets them up well for a strong season, and if they can navigate early challenges, they should be in the hunt for the AAC title game.

Why UTSA might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Transition: Losing an all-time great like Frank Harris is never easy, and while Owen McCown showed promise, there’s a risk that the offense could regress, especially if McCown struggles to find chemistry with a receiving corps missing its top wideout.
• Defensive Losses: The departure of their top pass rusher, Trey Moore, to Texas, and their best secondary player, Cam Alexander, to Oregon, could leave the defense vulnerable, especially against the stronger offenses in the AAC, making it hard to replicate last season’s success.
• Potential Distractions: With head coach Jeff Traylor constantly being linked to higher-profile jobs, there’s always a risk that distractions or even a mid-season departure could disrupt the team’s focus and performance, potentially derailing what should be a promising season.

Their rating is 54, Conference rating is 2, projected wins are 8.37 (slightly under), with 11 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

As far as the conference title game… I’m going to take UTSA and Memphis to get to the title game, with Memphis winning the AAC AND… making the playoff. They’re +700 to do that right now.  I’ve got a lot of faith in Seth Hennigan at QB for the Tigers, along with those skill position players.

 

Alright – let’s get outta here.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

 

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.