Watch the video: https://youtu.be/JBVfqLKa4Mo

ACC

 

Carrying on with the 2024 conference previews and we next move into the ACC – the Atlantic Coast Conference – who people believe is just teetering on the brink of falling apart like the Pac 12…

 

…Now, I don’t necessarily agree with that.  I think they had the advantage of learning from the Pac 12’s failures, which is why they brought in SMU, Cal and Stanford, and they might have a better grasp of what the conference is worth without their 2 football bell cows going forward… but regardless, this is a pretty weak league this year, and the schedules open up some possibilities not only for the ACC Championship, but potentially for the CFP as well.

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Boston College Eagles

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -152 to go over (implied probability: 60.32%) and +124 to go under (implied probability: 44.64%). Conference odds are +17000 with an implied probability of 0.58%.

Why Boston College might go over their win total:

• Offensive Firepower: With dynamic playmakers like Thomas Castellanos at quarterback and a deep running back room led by Kye Robichaux and Treshaun Ward, BC’s offense has the potential to be explosive, especially if Castellanos improves as a passer under Bill O’Brien’s guidance.
• Solid Foundation: The offensive line, anchored by standout right tackle Ozzy Trapilo, is experienced and should provide the stability needed to allow the skill players to thrive, helping BC control the tempo of games.
• Defensive Experience: The defense returns a veteran two-deep, and with new additions like DB transfers from Ohio State, the unit has the experience and talent to step up, especially if they can turn last year’s pressure into more sacks.

Why Boston College might not go over their win total:

• Tough Schedule: With early road games at Florida State, Missouri, and later matchups against Louisville and Virginia Tech, the schedule is a gauntlet that could quickly derail any momentum the Eagles build.
• Quarterback Uncertainty: If Castellanos struggles to adapt to a more traditional dropback passing game or if he’s forced into a style that doesn’t play to his strengths, the offense could sputter, limiting BC’s ability to win close games.
• Defensive Concerns: Despite the returning experience, the defense’s lack of a consistent pass rush last season and the reliance on transfers could lead to vulnerability against stronger ACC offenses, making it difficult to close out games.

Their rating is 66, Conference rating is 13, projected wins are 4.99 (slightly over), with 5 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Cal Golden Bears

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +146 to go over (implied probability: 40.65%) and -180 to go under (implied probability: 64.29%). Conference odds are +8500 with an implied probability of 1.16%.

Why Cal might go over their win total:

• Offensive Potential: With dynamic running back Jaydn Ott and a promising quarterback battle between Fernando Mendoza and Chandler Rogers, Cal’s offense is primed to take a significant leap, especially with the addition of talented transfer receivers like Tobias Merriweather and Mikey Matthews.
• Improved Defense: Returning seven starters on defense, including potential breakout star LB Cade Uluave, and adding impactful transfers, gives Cal a solid foundation to improve on last year’s struggles, especially in critical moments.
• Favorable Schedule: While the travel is grueling, Cal’s schedule is more manageable compared to last year, with several winnable games against mid-tier ACC teams and a non-conference slate that isn’t overly daunting.

Why Cal might not go over their win total:

• Brutal Travel Schedule: The extensive travel across the country multiple times could wear down the team physically and mentally, leading to inconsistent performances, particularly in the second half of the season.
• Defensive Concerns: Despite returning experience, last year’s defensive struggles (84th in SP+) raise doubts about their ability to stop high-powered offenses, especially with a lack of proven pass rushers.
• Uncertainty at Quarterback: If neither Mendoza nor Rogers seizes control of the quarterback position early, the offense might struggle to find rhythm, leading to missed opportunities in close games.

Their rating is 53, Conference rating is 10, projected wins are 6.05 (slightly under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Clemson Tigers

Current Win Total is 8.5 (down from the 9.5 opener), with odds of -172 to go over (implied probability: 63.24%) and +140 to go under (implied probability: 41.67%). Conference odds are +370 with an implied probability of 21.28%.

Why Clemson might go over their win total:

• Returning Offensive Talent: With Cade Klubnik, Phil Mafah, and a solid offensive line returning, Clemson’s offense has the potential to take a significant step forward in Garrett Riley’s second year as OC, especially if the young receivers like Bryant Wesco and TJ Moore live up to their hype.
• Defensive Depth: Despite losing key players, the defense is stacked with young talent, particularly at the linebacker and secondary positions, where players like Barrett Carter and Khalil Barnes could anchor one of the ACC’s top units.
• Favorable ACC Schedule: Outside of tough matchups against Georgia and Florida State, Clemson’s schedule is favorable, with many of their key conference games at home, giving them a strong chance to reach double-digit wins.

Why Clemson might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: Cade Klubnik’s inconsistency and lack of proven playmakers at wide receiver could hinder the offense, especially if the injury bug strikes again as it did in 2023.
• Defensive Regression: The loss of experienced leaders like Jeremiah Trotter Jr. and a lack of proven depth on the defensive line could lead to struggles against more dynamic offenses, particularly in critical ACC games.
• No Transfer Help: Dabo Swinney’s refusal to use the transfer portal limits Clemson’s ability to address key weaknesses, especially on the offensive line and at quarterback, leaving little margin for error if injuries or underperformance occur.

Their rating is 14, Conference rating is 2, projected wins are 8.85 (slightly over), with 10 games as projected favorites and 3 toss-up games.

 

Duke Blue Devils

Current Win Total is 5.5 (down from the 6.5 opener), with odds of +104 to go over (implied probability: 49.02%) and -128 to go under (implied probability: 56.14%). Conference odds are +15000 with an implied probability of 0.66%. 

Why Duke might go over their win total:

• Offensive Potential: Malik Murphy, with his strong arm and mobility, could emerge as a game-changing quarterback, especially with a talented receiving target like Jordan Moore, giving Duke’s offense the firepower to compete in the ACC.
• Experienced Defense: Despite turnover, the defense returns key playmakers like linebackers Tre Freeman and Nick Morris Jr., and a solid secondary led by Jaylen Stinson and Chandler Rivers, which could keep games close and give Duke a chance to win tight contests.
• Manageable Schedule: Duke’s non-conference schedule is favorable, with winnable games against Elon, Northwestern, UConn, and Middle Tennessee, potentially setting them up with a strong start and building confidence for the tougher ACC matchups.

Why Duke might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Line Concerns: With five of seven starting offensive linemen gone from last year, Duke’s ability to protect the quarterback and establish the run game is in serious doubt, which could stall their offensive progress.
• Defensive Line Depth: The loss of four out of five defensive linemen who played significant snaps raises major questions about Duke’s ability to stop the run and pressure opposing quarterbacks, leading to potential defensive struggles.
• Tough ACC Schedule: After a likely strong start, Duke faces a brutal ACC slate with matchups against Florida State, SMU, Miami, NC State, and Virginia Tech, making it difficult for them to secure the necessary conference wins to hit their win total.

Their rating is 51, Conference rating is 9, projected wins are 6.12 (slightly under), with 6 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Florida State Seminoles

Current Win Total is 9.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +104 to go over (implied probability: 49.02%) and -128 to go under (implied probability: 56.14%). Conference odds are +300 with an implied probability of 25.0%. 

Why Florida State might go over their win total:

• Dynamic Playmaking Ability: DJ Uiagalelei’s powerful arm and athleticism can unlock the deep ball in Mike Norvell’s offense, potentially leading to explosive plays and a significant increase in offensive production, especially with weapons like Malik Benson and a versatile backfield.
• Elite Pass Rush: The combination of Patrick Payton and Marvin Jones Jr. on the defensive line could create relentless pressure on opposing quarterbacks, allowing the defense to dominate and keep games within reach, even against tougher opponents.
• Continuity and Depth on the Offensive Line: With three returning starters and key transfers like Terrence Ferguson II, FSU’s offensive line should provide solid protection and open up running lanes, giving the Seminoles a balanced attack and the ability to control the pace of games.

Why Florida State might not go over their win total:

• Inexperience at Key Positions: With significant turnover at wide receiver and in the secondary, the Seminoles might struggle to find consistency early in the season, particularly if younger players don’t quickly adapt to their new roles.
• Quarterback Questions: DJ Uiagalelei has yet to prove he can elevate an offense to an elite level consistently; if he falters, the Seminoles could struggle to generate the offensive firepower needed to compete with top-tier ACC teams.
• Trap Games and Tough Schedule: The schedule features potential pitfalls, including tricky matchups against SMU before Clemson and North Carolina before Notre Dame, which could lead to unexpected losses and derail their playoff aspirations.

Their rating is 9, Conference rating is 1, projected wins are 9.06 (slightly under), with 11 games as projected favorites and 4 toss-up games.

 

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Current Win Total is 4.5 (down from the 5.5 opener), with odds of -142 to go over (implied probability: 58.68%) and +116 to go under (implied probability: 46.30%). Conference odds are +10000 with an implied probability of 0.99%. 

Why Georgia Tech might go over their win total:

• Explosive Offense: Haynes King’s dual-threat ability combined with a returning core that includes 1,000-yard rusher Jamal Haynes and rising star receiver Eric Singleton Jr. gives the Yellow Jackets the firepower to compete in high-scoring games, especially with four returning starters on the offensive line.
• Coaching Impact: Brent Key’s first full year at the helm saw immediate offensive improvement, and with the addition of defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci, there’s potential for the defense to take a significant step forward, balancing out the team’s performance.
• Upset Potential: With several key games at home and King’s knack for big plays, Georgia Tech is primed to pull off upsets against higher-ranked opponents, particularly in games against Miami and NC State, which could swing the season in their favor.

Why Georgia Tech might not go over their win total:

• Brutal Schedule: Facing two top-10 non-conference opponents (Notre Dame and Georgia) and a grueling ACC slate, the Yellow Jackets will be tested almost every week, making it difficult to string together enough wins to surpass their projected total.
• Defensive Struggles: Despite the new defensive coordinator, the defense remains a major concern after ranking among the worst in the country last year; the lack of proven difference-makers could lead to more shootouts that they might not win.
• Inconsistent Play: While Haynes King has shown flashes, his turnover issues and streaky accuracy could hinder the offense’s effectiveness, especially against top-tier defenses, leading to missed opportunities in crucial games.

Their rating is 56, Conference rating is 11, projected wins are 4.73 (slightly over), with 3 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Louisville Cardinals

Current Win Total is 8.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +132 to go over (implied probability: 43.10%) and -162 to go under (implied probability: 61.83%). Conference odds are +850 with an implied probability of 10.53%. 

Why Louisville might go over their win total:

• Jeff Brohm’s Offensive Genius: With the arrival of Tyler Shough at quarterback and a slew of talented transfers, Brohm’s high-powered offense has the potential to hit its stride quickly, replicating the explosive success he had at Purdue and Western Kentucky.
• Depth and Talent: Louisville’s aggressive approach in the transfer portal has infused the roster with experienced players on both sides of the ball, including key additions like WR Ja’Corey Brooks and DB Quincy Riley, giving them the depth to navigate a tough schedule.
• Defensive Improvement: The Cardinals’ defense, bolstered by a strong secondary and the addition of impact transfers like Thor Griffith on the line, has the potential to be one of the ACC’s best, providing the balance needed to win close games.

Why Louisville might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: Tyler Shough’s injury history is a major concern, and if he goes down or underperforms, the Cardinals might struggle to find consistency at the most critical position, derailing their season.
• Lack of Cohesion: With so many new faces in key positions, the team might take time to gel, leading to early-season struggles that could be costly against a tough schedule that includes Notre Dame, Clemson, and Miami.
• Tougher Schedule: Louisville faces a significantly more challenging slate this year, including road games at Notre Dame and Clemson, and a tricky stretch late in the season that could see them drop key games and fall short of their win total.

Their rating is 23, Conference rating is 4, projected wins are 8.10 (slightly under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

Miami Hurricanes

Current Win Total is 9.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +138 to go over (implied probability: 42.02%) and -170 to go under (implied probability: 62.96%). Conference odds are +440 with an implied probability of 18.52%.

Why Miami might go over their win total:

• Loaded Roster Talent: With the addition of Cam Ward at quarterback and the explosive Damien Martinez in the backfield, Miami’s offense is primed to be one of the most dangerous in the ACC, supported by a strong, experienced offensive line and versatile playmakers like Xavier Restrepo.
• Improved Defensive Depth: The Hurricanes have aggressively bolstered their defense with key transfers like Tyler Baron and Simeon Barrow Jr., adding to an already formidable front seven, which should help them control the line of scrimmage and disrupt opposing offenses.
• Schedule Advantage: Miami’s schedule is one of the more manageable in the ACC, with key games like Florida State at home, allowing the Hurricanes to capitalize on their talent and potentially secure double-digit wins.

Why Miami might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Consistency: While Cam Ward has immense talent, his inconsistency in the latter half of last season raises concerns about whether he can sustain high-level performance across a full ACC schedule, especially under the pressure of leading a program like Miami.
• Cristobal’s Game Management: Mario Cristobal’s conservative game-management decisions have cost Miami in the past, and if those tendencies continue, they could find themselves losing close games that they should win, ultimately undermining their season.
• Secondary Concerns: Miami’s secondary struggled during spring practices and remains a potential weak spot, which could be exploited by high-powered offenses on their schedule, leading to unexpected losses that could derail their season.

Their rating is 19, Conference rating is 3, projected wins are 8.31 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

NC State Wolfpack

Current Win Total is 8.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Conference odds are +600 with an implied probability of 14.29%.

Why NC State might go over their win total:

• Grayson McCall’s Potential: With the addition of Grayson McCall, one of the most efficient quarterbacks in recent college football history, NC State’s offense has the potential to take a significant leap forward, especially if he can return to his pre-injury form and effectively utilize his dual-threat capabilities.
• Experienced Offensive Line: The Wolfpack return four starters on the offensive line, providing stability and protection that should help McCall thrive and open up running lanes for Jordan Waters, a dynamic addition from Duke who adds versatility to the backfield.
• Favorable Schedule: NC State avoids the ACC’s heavyweights like Florida State and Miami, setting them up with a manageable path to potentially exceed their projected win total, especially if they can secure key victories against Clemson or Tennessee early in the season.

Why NC State might not go over their win total:

• Injury Concerns for McCall: Grayson McCall’s history of injuries is a significant concern, and if he struggles to stay healthy, NC State could find themselves in a difficult situation with a lack of proven depth at quarterback, which could derail their offensive potential.
• Defensive Turnover: The loss of key defensive players like Payton Wilson and Shaheem Battle leaves questions about whether the defense can maintain its top-20 performance, especially with new faces needing to step up in critical roles.
• Unproven Skill Positions: Outside of Kevin Concepcion, the Wolfpack’s receiving corps is largely unproven, and if the new additions like Noah Rogers and Justin Jolly don’t quickly adapt and produce, NC State’s offense might struggle to consistently move the ball against tougher competition.

Their rating is 32, Conference rating is 6, projected wins are 8.31 (slightly under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

North Carolina Tar Heels

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -115 to go over (implied probability: 53.49%) and -105 to go under (implied probability: 51.22%). Conference odds are +3600 with an implied probability of 2.70%.

Why North Carolina might go over their win total:

• Mack Brown’s Experience: With Mack Brown’s wealth of coaching experience and a proven ability to develop talent, the Tar Heels are well-positioned to navigate the challenges of a new quarterback and offensive line, maximizing the potential of their returning stars like Omarion Hampton.
• Defensive Improvement: The addition of Geoff Collins as defensive coordinator brings a fresh energy and aggressive approach to a defense that returns several key players, including Kaimon Rucker and Alijah Huzzie, giving the Tar Heels a real shot at significant defensive improvement.
• Manageable Schedule: North Carolina’s schedule sets up favorably, avoiding ACC powerhouses like Clemson and Miami, while also drawing a mix of winnable games that could easily push them over the 7.5-win mark, especially if they can capitalize on matchups against teams like Virginia Tech and NC State.

Why North Carolina might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: With the departure of Drake Maye and an ongoing quarterback battle between Max Johnson and Conner Harrell, the Tar Heels face significant uncertainty at the most important position, which could hinder offensive consistency throughout the season.
• Offensive Line Turnover: The near-complete overhaul of the offensive line, with five of last year’s top six players gone, raises concerns about protection and run-blocking, potentially limiting the effectiveness of key players like Omarion Hampton.
• Defensive Struggles: Despite the veteran presence and the hiring of Geoff Collins, the defense still has much to prove after ranking 78th last season, and any continuation of their struggles could put additional pressure on an offense in transition, making it difficult to secure key wins.

Their rating is 40, Conference rating is 7, projected wins are 7.77 (slightly over), with 10 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Pitt Panthers

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +116 to go over (implied probability: 46.30%) and *142 to go under (implied probability: 58.68%). Conference odds are +12000 with an implied probability of 0.83%. 

Why Pitt might go over their win total:

• Veteran Support: With a young quarterback like Nate Yarnell stepping into a full-time starting role, the presence of experienced players like Rodney Hammond Jr. and Gavin Bartholomew provides a strong foundation to lean on, giving Pitt’s offense the stability it lacked last season.
• Defensive Rebuild: Despite the losses on defense, Pat Narduzzi’s track record of building tough defenses, coupled with key transfer additions and returning players like Jimmy Scott, suggests that Pitt can quickly rebound and regain its defensive identity.
• Favorable Early Schedule: The early schedule, featuring winnable non-conference games against teams like Kent State and Youngstown State, offers Pitt a solid chance to build momentum before heading into the more challenging ACC matchups, setting them up for a potential bowl-eligible season.

Why Pitt might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: While Nate Yarnell showed promise in limited action, his inexperience could lead to inconsistency, especially as he adjusts to a new, up-tempo offensive system under a first-time Power 5 coordinator, which might result in early struggles for the offense.
• Defensive Inexperience: With only five of the top 15 defenders returning from last year, including the loss of key players like Nate Temple, Pitt’s defense might take time to gel, potentially leading to vulnerabilities that opposing offenses could exploit.
• Daunting Back-End Schedule: A brutal stretch of games in November, including matchups against Clemson and Louisville, followed by a tough road game at Boston College, could derail Pitt’s season if they don’t secure enough wins early, making it difficult to reach the win total.

Their rating is 67, Conference rating is 14, projected wins are 5.75 (slightly over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

SMU Mustangs

Current Win Total is 8.5 (up from the 7.5 opener), with odds of +104 to go over (implied probability: 49.02%) and -128 to go under (implied probability: 56.14%). Conference odds are +1000 with an implied probability of 9.09%.

Why SMU might go over their win total:

• Explosive Offense: With Preston Stone at quarterback and a deep skill corps that includes returning backs and receivers, SMU’s offense is primed to light up the scoreboard, especially in an ACC where they’ll face several defenses that might struggle to keep up.
• Defensive Upgrades: The Mustangs addressed their biggest concerns by adding size and talent on the defensive line through the transfer portal, which should bolster their already improving defense and help them hold up against tougher ACC competition.
• Favorable Schedule: SMU dodges some of the ACC’s heavy hitters, avoiding Clemson and Miami, and gets Florida State at home, setting them up for a potentially smooth transition to their new conference with a real shot at double-digit wins.

Why SMU might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Line Questions: Losing three starters from last year’s line and relying on transfers to fill the gaps could lead to protection issues for Stone, which might disrupt the offensive rhythm that’s crucial to SMU’s success.
• Transition to ACC: While the schedule is favorable, the jump in competition from the AAC to the ACC is significant, and SMU could face a learning curve, particularly in handling the week-to-week physical demands of a Power 5 conference.
• Defensive Depth Concerns: Despite the defensive upgrades, the depth, particularly in the secondary, remains a concern. If injuries hit or if the starters struggle to adapt, SMU’s defense could be exposed against more potent ACC offenses.

Their rating is 24, Conference rating is 5, projected wins are 8.78 (slightly over), with 9 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

Stanford Cardinal

Current Win Total is 3.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -170 to go over (implied probability: 62.96%) and +138 to go under (implied probability: 42.02%). Conference odds are +50000 with an implied probability of 0.20%.

Why Stanford might go over their win total:

• Returning Experience: Stanford boasts the second-most returning production in the nation, providing a foundation for improvement under Troy Taylor, particularly with key offensive pieces like QB Ashton Daniels and star WR Elic Ayomanor leading the way.
• Offensive Growth: With a year of Taylor’s system under their belts, the offense is poised to be more consistent and explosive, especially if Daniels can build on his flashes of brilliance from last season and Ayomanor continues to emerge as one of the ACC’s top receivers.
• Winnable Games: Despite the challenges of their new conference, Stanford’s schedule includes several winnable matchups like Cal Poly, Syracuse, and San Jose State, giving them a legitimate path to exceed their projected win total.

Why Stanford might not go over their win total:

• Depth Concerns: While Stanford returns a lot of experience, their overall roster strength ranks just 75th, and the lack of depth, especially on defense, could be exposed in the grind of ACC play.
• Adjustment to the ACC: The transition from the Pac-12 to the ACC presents a significant challenge, with unfamiliar opponents and extensive travel, which could lead to inconsistent performances, particularly against more established ACC teams.
• Defensive Struggles: Stanford’s defense allowed 40 or more points in six of their last eight games in 2023, and despite returning many players, the lack of impactful additions and overall talent raises concerns about their ability to stop ACC offenses.

Their rating is 69, Conference rating is 15, projected wins are 4.40 (over), with 3 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Syracuse Orange

Current Win Total is 7.5 (up from the 6.5 opener), with odds of +116 to go over (implied probability: 46.30%) and -142 to go under (implied probability: 58.68%). Conference odds are +6000 with an implied probability of 1.64%.

Why Syracuse might go over their win total:

• Quarterback Upgrade: With Kyle McCord under center, Syracuse gains a seasoned quarterback with proven production, which should elevate an offense that already boasts playmakers like Oronde Gadsden II and LeQuint Allen, making the Orange a tough out for many ACC defenses.
• Favorable Schedule: Syracuse dodges ACC heavyweights like Clemson and Florida State, and their non-conference slate is manageable, setting them up for a potential 8-9 win season if they take care of business in winnable games.
• Defensive Additions: With key defensive transfers like Fadil Diggs and Duce Chestnut joining a unit led by Marlowe Wax, the Orange defense could be a formidable force, giving them a solid foundation to challenge for a top spot in the ACC.

Why Syracuse might not go over their win total:

• First-Year Head Coach: Fran Brown, in his first year as a head coach, faces the challenge of implementing his vision while adjusting to ACC competition, which could lead to growing pains and inconsistent performances throughout the season.
• Offensive Line Concerns: Syracuse’s offensive line, which ranked 116th in performance last season, remains a question mark despite returning some starters and adding transfers, potentially hindering McCord’s effectiveness and the overall offensive production.
• Depth Issues: While the starting lineup looks strong, Syracuse lacks depth at key positions, particularly on the defensive line and cornerback, which could become a significant problem as the season progresses, especially in a physical conference like the ACC.

Their rating is 63, Conference rating is 12, projected wins are 6.66 (under), with 6 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Virginia Cavaliers

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -110 to go over (implied probability: 52.38%) and -110 to go under (implied probability: 52.38%). Conference odds are +17000 with an implied probability of 0.58%.

Why Virginia might go over their win total:

• Returning Experience: With a team that features a lot of returning experience, including both quarterbacks, and young players who gained valuable reps last season, Virginia could take a step forward as these players mature and learn from last year’s challenges.
• Offensive Potential: If true freshman QB Anthony Colandrea, who showed flashes of brilliance last year, continues to develop alongside new offensive weapons like Chris Tyree, the Cavaliers’ passing game could become a legitimate threat, helping them win some of the closer games on their schedule.
• Improved Defensive Depth: With the return of key defenders like Kam Butler and the development of young players thrust into action last year, Virginia’s defense could solidify, particularly in the run defense, making it more difficult for opponents to pull away in games.

Why Virginia might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: The ongoing quarterback battle between Colandrea and Musket, coupled with Colandrea’s inconsistency last season, raises concerns about whether the Cavaliers will get reliable play from the most important position on the field.
• Offensive Line Issues: Despite some returning starters, Virginia’s offensive line remains a concern, especially with depth issues, which could limit the effectiveness of both the running and passing games, putting added pressure on the young quarterbacks.
• Tough Schedule: The Cavaliers face a challenging schedule with tough non-conference games against Maryland, Notre Dame, and Coastal Carolina, along with a difficult ACC slate, making it hard to see where the necessary wins will come from to exceed expectations.

Their rating is 75, Conference rating is 17, projected wins are 4.28 (slightly under), with 2 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Virginia Tech Hokies

Current Win Total is 8.5, opened at 7.5, with odds of +124 to go over (implied probability: 44.64%) and -152 to go under (implied probability: 60.32%). Conference odds are +1000 with an implied probability of 9.09%.

Why Virginia Tech might go over their win total:

• Returning Production: With one of the highest returning production rates in the nation, including quarterback Kyron Drones and standout running back Bhayshul Tuten, the Hokies are poised to build on last year’s late-season momentum and challenge for the top of the ACC.
• Offensive Firepower: The Hokies’ offense, which averaged nearly 35 points per game over the final seven contests in 2023, returns all key playmakers, including wide receivers Ali Jennings and Jaylin Lane, setting the stage for a dynamic, high-scoring attack.
• Pass Defense Strength: Virginia Tech’s pass defense, bolstered by top-tier corners and the return of star pass rusher Antwaun Powell-Ryland, remains one of the best in the conference, giving them a solid foundation to win close games against tough ACC opponents.

Why Virginia Tech might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Line Concerns: Despite returning all five starters, the offensive line was inconsistent last season, and any lack of improvement could limit the effectiveness of Drones and the Hokies’ potent skill players, especially against stronger defensive fronts.
• Run Defense Issues: The Hokies struggled against the run last season, and with key losses in the front seven, there’s no guarantee that the new additions will shore up this weakness, potentially leading to vulnerabilities in crucial matchups.
• Learning to Win: While the Hokies showed promise late last season, their inconsistency, particularly in games against stronger opponents, raises questions about whether they can consistently close out games and avoid slipping up in winnable situations, which could hinder their path to exceeding expectations.

Their rating is 41, Conference rating is 8, projected wins are 7.41 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -152 to go over (implied probability: 60.32%) and +124 to go under (implied probability: 44.64%). Conference odds are +32000 with an implied probability of 0.31%.

Why Wake Forest might go over their win total:

• Offensive Rebound: With Dave Clawson’s proven track record of bouncing back from rough seasons, Wake Forest’s offense is poised for improvement, especially with the return of explosive playmaker Donavon Greene and a healthier offensive line.
• Quarterback Stability: Whether it’s Hank Bachmeier, who brings experience and a proven arm, or the promising true freshman Jeremy Hichlinski, the quarterback play should stabilize and improve from last season’s struggles, giving the Deacons a better shot in close games.
• Defensive Strength: Anchored by a senior-laden defensive line led by Jasheen Davis, Wake Forest’s defense should excel at stopping the run and pressuring the quarterback, helping the team stay competitive in their tougher matchups.

Why Wake Forest might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: The uncertainty at quarterback, with neither Bachmeier nor Hichlinski having proven themselves in the ACC, could lead to inconsistent play, making it difficult for the offense to find its rhythm.
• Injury Concerns: Donavon Greene’s history of injuries, including missing the entire 2023 season, raises questions about whether the offense can generate big plays without him, especially if he isn’t at 100%.
• Tough Schedule: With challenging non-conference games against Ole Miss and a brutal ACC slate that includes Clemson and NC State, the Deacons face a tough path to reaching bowl eligibility, especially if they stumble in the more winnable matchups.

Their rating is 71, Conference rating is 16, projected wins are 5.04 (over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Ok…the conference title game… I’m going well off the beaten path here.  It’s going to be a wild year, so why not go with 2 teams that seem to always fall just short?  I’ll take Miami and NC State to meet in Charlotte in December because their schedules are setup really nicely, and I think Miami finally gets that first ACC title.

 

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For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.