Watch the video here: https://youtu.be/oEI96IoDi98

We continue our 2024 conference previews with the last standing FBS west coast football conference, the Mountain West! And this conference has been through A LOT of changes in the past year…

 

You’ve got new coaches at 8 different schools this year.  The elder statesman is Troy Calhoun at Air Force, Jay Norvell is still trying to get things rolling at Colorado St… you have 2 interim coaches that were just named in the past month at Fresno and Utah St. It’s going to be a wild season for this bunch… and the G5 favorite to make the playoff is from a first year coach in this conference.  Crazy times we’re living in…

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Air Force Falcons

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Conference odds are +1400 with an implied probability of 6.67%.

Why Air Force Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite significant roster turnover, Troy Calhoun’s coaching consistency and effective system have kept Air Force competitive for nearly two decades, demonstrating an ability to quickly integrate new starters.
2. The defense, led by standout players like DT Payton Zdroik and CB Jamari Bellamy, remains strong, giving the Falcons a solid foundation to build on even with new faces in the lineup.
3. The Falcons’ schedule is favorable, avoiding tough opponents like Boise State and UNLV, with key games against Fresno State and Oregon State being played at home, increasing their chances of winning more games.

Why Air Force Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Air Force faces massive roster turnover, particularly on offense, losing their top four rushers, eight offensive linemen, and experienced QB Zac Larrier, which could lead to struggles in maintaining their high-level performance.
2. The inexperience at quarterback and offensive line positions, coupled with the departure of key defensive players, might cause inconsistency and difficulties, especially in the early part of the season.
3. While their system is reliable, the lack of returning production and the need to integrate many new starters could result in a regression from their recent success, making it challenging to secure more than 6.5 wins.

Their rating is 90, Conference rating is 4, projected wins are 6.7 (slightly over), with 7 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

Boise State Broncos

Current Win Total is 9, opened at 8.5, with odds of -150 to go over (implied probability: 60.0%) and +125 to go under (implied probability: 44.44%). Conference odds are -125 with an implied probability of 55.56%. 

Why Boise State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Boise State retained a significant portion of their roster, including star running back Ashton Jeanty, who amassed nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage and 19 touchdowns last season, ensuring a potent offensive foundation.
2. The Broncos’ defense, although it slipped last year, returns 16 of 19 players who played at least 200 snaps, including key contributors like linebacker Andrew Simpson and defensive end Ahmed Hassanein, offering a stable and experienced defensive unit.
3. With a favorable schedule, where they are projected to be favorites in 11 out of 12 games and key matchups against Washington State and Oregon State at home, Boise State is well-positioned to secure a high number of wins.

Why Boise State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The team faces a significant transition with a new head coach, Spencer Danielson, whose long-term effectiveness remains uncertain despite his successful interim stint last season.
2. The passing game was inconsistent last year, and while there are promising additions like transfer receiver Cam Camper, the overall offensive cohesion, especially with a potential new starting quarterback in Malachi Nelson, is yet to be fully tested.
3. Despite returning many defensive players, the unit struggled last season, falling to 82nd in defensive SP+, and must show marked improvement to support a successful campaign against tougher opponents like Oregon.

Their rating is 45, Conference rating is 1, projected wins are 8.57 (under), with 11 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Colorado State Rams

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +104 to go over (implied probability: 49.02%) and -128 to go under (implied probability: 56.14%). Conference odds are +1600 with an implied probability of 5.88%. 

Why Colorado State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi returns with valuable experience, and with star receiver Tory Horton, who has produced consecutive 1,000-yard seasons, the offense has a potent passing threat that can drive the team to wins.
2. The defense, despite some key losses, retains experienced players like linebacker Chase Wilson and safety Henry Blackburn, which should help stabilize and potentially improve the unit.
3. With seven home games and a favorable schedule where they are expected to be favored in at least six games, the Rams have a strong chance of reaching bowl eligibility.

Why Colorado State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Fowler-Nicolosi’s 16 interceptions last season highlight significant inconsistency at the quarterback position, which could hinder the offense’s effectiveness.
2. The run game was one of the worst in the country last year, and despite Justin Marshall’s late-season performance, the overall rushing attack remains a major concern.
3. The defense allowed a staggering 71.5% completion rate last year, showing a vulnerability in pass defense that could be exploited by opponents, potentially leading to more losses.

Their rating is 105, Conference rating is 9, projected wins are 5.59 (under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Fresno State Bulldogs

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -148 to go over (implied probability: 59.68%) and +120 to go under (implied probability: 45.45%). Conference odds are +550 with an implied probability of 15.38%.

Why Fresno State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense returns eight starters, including a solid quarterback in Mikey Keene and a strong running game led by Malik Sherrod, which provides a foundation for consistent scoring.
2. The offensive line is experienced and anchored by standout right guard Mose Vavao, offering protection and creating opportunities for the skill players to shine.
3. Despite losing key defensive players, the Bulldogs retain proven disruptors and added former five-star USC linebacker Korey Foreman, potentially boosting the defense’s overall effectiveness.

Why Fresno State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The departure of head coach Jeff Tedford due to health reasons introduces uncertainty and potential instability, as interim coach Tim Skipper steps in to lead the team.
2. While Mikey Keene showed promise, his inconsistency last season could be a concern, especially with the loss of key receiving threats.
3. The defense’s regression last year and the loss of key players might leave them vulnerable, particularly if new additions like Foreman do not live up to their potential.

Their rating is 65, Conference rating is 2, projected wins are 7.81 (slightly over), with 9 games as projected favorites and 3 toss-up games.

 

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Current Win Total is 5.5 (up from the 4.5 opener), with odds of -110 to go over (implied probability: 52.38%) and -110 to go under (implied probability: 52.38%). Conference odds are +3200 with an implied probability of 3.03%. 

Why Hawai’i Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Rainbow Warriors have an impressive amount of returning production, ranking seventh nationally, which includes key players like quarterback Brayden Schager and his six leading receivers.
2. The offense showed improvement towards the end of last season, and the addition of a quarterback run game added another dimension that helped them win three of their last four games.
3. The defense, led by experienced players like linebacker Logan Taylor and safety Peter Manuma, has the potential to be more consistent and effective with nine returning starters.

Why Hawai’i Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense was one of the worst in the nation last year, ranking 121st in defensive SP+ and allowing 41.4 points per game in losses, and they lost three of their top four linemen.
2. The offensive line struggled significantly, allowing 39 sacks and averaging only three yards per carry, which could hinder the overall offensive performance.
3. Despite the returning production, the team faces a challenging schedule, including games against UCLA, Washington State, and the top teams in the Mountain West, making it difficult to secure enough wins for bowl eligibility.

Their rating is 110, Conference rating is 10, projected wins are 5.17 (slightly under), with 5 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Nevada Wolfpack

Current Win Total is 2.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -122 to go under (implied probability: 54.95%) and +100 to go over (implied probability: 50.0%). Conference odds are +15000 with an implied probability of 0.66%.

Why Nevada Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Jeff Choate’s arrival brings fresh energy and a solid coaching resume, including a successful stint at Montana State and recent experience as Texas’s defensive co-coordinator.
2. The team has bolstered its talent with several key transfers, including former blue-chipper Chubba Purdy from Nebraska at quarterback and a promising running back room featuring transfers from Oregon, Cal, and Boston College.
3. The defense has potential leaders in junior linebacker Drue Watts and sophomore cornerback KK Meier, plus new talent like Texas transfer Kitan Crawford and Wisconsin’s Ken Johnson, which could stabilize and improve the unit.

Why Nevada Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Wolf Pack’s offense has been historically ineffective, with last year’s quarterbacks combining for only two touchdown passes and a dismal 13-to-20 touchdown-to-interception ratio over the past two years.
2. Significant post-spring losses, including top players like Jamal Bell, Devvin Campbell, and Kiki Latu transferring out, leave the team with a lack of experienced playmakers, particularly in the receiving corps.
3. The schedule is challenging, with 10 of their 13 games against bowl teams from last year, and the team might only be favored in one game, making it difficult to secure enough wins for bowl eligibility.

Their rating is 127, Conference rating is 11, projected wins are 3.47 (over), with 1 game as a projected favorite and 5 toss-up games.

 

New Mexico Lobos

Current Win Total is 2.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +122 to go over (implied probability: 45.05%) and -150 to go under (implied probability: 60.0%). Conference odds are +25000 with an implied probability of 0.40%. 

Why New Mexico Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Coaching Upgrade: Bronco Mendenhall’s track record of turning around struggling programs at BYU and Virginia suggests he has the experience and leadership needed to improve New Mexico, even with limited resources.
2. Defensive Potential: With seven returning starters on defense, including key players like Christian Ellis and emerging talent from the transfer portal, Mendenhall’s defensive expertise could help the Lobos punch above their weight.
3. Quarterback Upside: Sophomore QB Devon Dampier showed promise in limited action last year, and with the right development under new offensive coordinator Jason Beck, he could help the team find a couple of surprise wins.

Why New Mexico Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Brutal Schedule: The Lobos face the toughest schedule among Group of Five teams, likely making them underdogs in every game, with many matchups being uphill battles against superior competition.
2. Offensive Line Concerns: With zero returning starters on the offensive line and all five projected starters being transfers, there’s a significant risk of instability and growing pains in a critical area of the team.
3. Limited Offensive Firepower: The loss of key skill players like running back Jakorri Croskey-Merritt and two of their top receivers leaves the offense thin on proven playmakers, which could severely hamper their ability to compete.

Their rating is 128, Conference rating is 12, projected wins are 2.95 (slightly over), with 1 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

San Diego State Aztecs

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +106 to go over (implied probability: 48.54%) and -130 to go under (implied probability: 56.52%). Conference odds are +3200 with an implied probability of 3.03%. 

Why San Diego State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The hiring of Sean Lewis, a proven offensive mind, brings a significant upgrade in coaching and offensive philosophy, which could revitalize a stagnant Aztecs offense.
2. The influx of talented transfers, including former blue-chippers like AJ Duffy at quarterback and Marquez Cooper at running back, provides immediate impact players who can elevate the team’s performance.
3. The defense, while undergoing a hard reset, benefits from experienced coordinator Eric Schmidt and promising transfers like Kyle Moretti and William Nimmo Jr., which could lead to quick improvements on that side of the ball.

Why San Diego State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense faces a major overhaul, needing to replace nine key players, which could lead to growing pains and inconsistency throughout the season.
2. Despite the potential improvements, transitioning to a new offensive system and integrating numerous new players may take time, potentially leading to early-season struggles.
3. The schedule is challenging, with at least six games where the Aztecs are likely to be underdogs, making it difficult to accumulate enough wins to surpass their projected total.

Their rating is 97, Conference rating is 7, projected wins are 5.91 (slightly over), with 5 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

San Jose State Spartans

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -105 to go over (implied probability: 51.22%) and -115 to go under (implied probability: 53.49%). Conference odds are +6500 with an implied probability of 1.52%. 

Why San José State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Despite significant roster turnover, Ken Niumatalolo is an experienced coach with a proven track record of success at Navy, which might help stabilize the program and extract the best from the available talent.
2. The combination of Niumatalolo’s leadership and Craig Stutzmann’s innovative offensive approach could result in a more dynamic and effective offense, leveraging the talents of quarterback Jay Butterfield and experienced receivers like Nick Nash and Justin Lockhart.
3. Retaining defensive coordinator Derek Odum ensures some continuity on defense, which, combined with aggressive play and the potential impact of transfers, could lead to a stronger defensive performance.

Why San José State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The Spartans rank last in the nation in returning production, which includes losing their starting quarterback, top rushers, and four starting offensive linemen, making it challenging to maintain last season’s performance level.
2. Transitioning to a new offensive system under Stutzmann and integrating new players may lead to early struggles and inconsistency, especially with the offensive line’s inexperience.
3. The tough schedule, including games against top conference opponents Boise State, Fresno State, and UNLV, as well as power schools like Washington State, Oregon State, and Stanford, presents a significant hurdle to achieving a winning season.

Their rating is 98, Conference rating is 8, projected wins are 5.52 (over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

UNLV Rebels

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +122 to go over (implied probability: 45.05%) and -150 to go under (implied probability: 60%). Conference odds are +500 with an implied probability of 16.67%.

Why UNLV Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. Barry Odom has built a solid foundation and retained a dynamic offensive coordinator, Brennan Marion, whose innovative “Go-Go” offense could further develop with another year of implementation.
2. The team boasts significant talent with the return of standout receivers Ricky White III and Jacob De Jesus, coupled with the addition of experienced FCS quarterbacks Matthew Sluka and Hajj-Malik Williams, which should ensure stability and potential growth on offense.
3. Defensive improvements are likely with the return of key players like linebacker Jackson Woodard and an influx of talented transfers, particularly in the secondary, which could bolster the team’s overall performance.

Why UNLV Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The loss of starting quarterback Jayden Maiava to USC could lead to instability at the quarterback position, as the new FCS transfers may take time to adjust to the FBS level.
2. Despite last year’s success, the defense was a weak point, ranking 104th in defensive SP+, and while there are new additions, integrating them quickly and effectively remains a challenge.
3. The schedule is extremely tough, with games against four power conference teams and top Mountain West opponents like Fresno State and Boise State, making it hard for UNLV to match or exceed last season’s win total.

Their rating is 79, Conference rating is 3, projected wins are 6.29 (under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Utah State Aggies

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +138 to go over (implied probability: 42.02%) and -170 to go under (implied probability: 62.96%). Conference odds are +5000 with an implied probability of 1.96%.

Why Utah State Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The offense has potential with an experienced line and proven playmakers, including running back Rahsul Faison, who withdrew from the transfer portal, and standout receiver Jalen Royals, who can provide explosive plays.
2. The Aggies have a competitive quarterback room with transfers like Spencer Petras, Bryson Barnes, Jacob Conover, and CJ Tiller, offering a range of talent that could stabilize the offense.
3. The new defensive coordinator, Nate Dreiling, who improved New Mexico State’s defense, could bring fresh strategies and enhance a unit that struggled significantly last season.

Why Utah State Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The team experienced significant turnover with the loss of key players to the transfer portal, including their top two quarterbacks and running back post-spring, which may hinder cohesion and performance.
2. Despite the returning offensive line, it was a weak unit last year, allowing 44 sacks and showing minimal individual standout performances, raising concerns about their ability to protect the quarterback and establish the run.
3. The defense was one of the worst in the nation last year, and while new additions and a new coordinator offer hope, integrating these changes quickly enough to make a significant impact might be challenging.

Their rating is 96, Conference rating is 6, projected wins are 5.32 (slightly under), with 5 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Wyoming Cowboys

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +116 to go over (implied probability: 46.3%) and -142 to go under (implied probability: 58.68%). Conference odds are +1800 with an implied probability of 5.26%.

Why Wyoming Might Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The defense remains a strong point for the team, returning nine key players who played significant snaps last season, including disruptive ends like Sabastian Harsh and solid veterans in the secondary.
2. The running game, a traditional strength for Wyoming, will be bolstered by the return of Harrison Waylee and Dawaiian McNeely, both averaging over 5.7 yards per carry, running behind an experienced offensive line.
3. New head coach Jay Sawvel, who was the defensive coordinator under Craig Bohl, brings continuity and familiarity to the team, which can help maintain stability and performance.

Why Wyoming Might Not Go Over Their Win Total:

1. The loss of key offensive players, including quarterback Andrew Peasley and his top three receivers, leaves significant gaps to fill, particularly in the passing game.
2. Despite last year’s success, Wyoming had some statistical anomalies, such as being outgained by 31 yards per game and relying heavily on turnovers, which typically suggests regression is likely.
3. The transition to new coordinators, particularly with Jay Johnson implementing more spread and tempo on offense, might present challenges in adapting quickly, impacting overall team performance early in the season.

Their rating is 95, Conference rating is 5, projected wins are 5.8 (under), with 5 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

As far as the conference title game… I’m going to trust Boise State to win this conference because, in all honesty… it’s a mess.  As I mentioned at the start, the best teams have new coaches, and the mid tier have coaches that just haven’t broken through yet.  This conference had 2 schools name interim coaches over the summer.  So I like Boise, and I think they’re probably going to play Fresno – Fresno’s got the talent, and I think that team will fight for Tim Skipper, much like the Broncos did for Spencer Danielson last year.

 

Alright – let’s wrap this up.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

 

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.