Watch the video: https://youtu.be/t_E-_FLUE-U

Sun Belt

 

We continue the WCE 2024 conference previews with maybe the most traditional college football conference in the FBS – the Sun Belt.

 

This is a conference that has never been worried about big markets.  They’ve focused on regionality, strong rivalries, and just good football programs.  And it’s made them – at least to me – the most endearing conference in the country.

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

 

Appalachian State Mountaineers

 

Current Win Total is 8.5, opened at 7.5, with odds of +112 to go over (implied probability: 47.17%) and -138 to go under (implied probability: 57.98%). Conference odds are +270 with an implied probability of 27.03%. 

 

Why Appalachian State might go over their win total:

• Experienced Quarterback: With Joey Aguilar returning after a stellar season where he threw for 3,757 yards and 33 touchdowns, App State’s offense is primed to be one of the most dangerous in the Sun Belt, especially with his top six receivers also returning.
• Defensive Improvement: After a season of growing pains, the defense returns 15 of 21 defenders who saw significant snaps, including disruptive playmakers like Santana Hopper and Nate Johnson, giving them the potential to make a substantial leap in performance.
• Favorable Schedule: App State is projected to be favored in 10 or 11 games this season, and with their consistent ability to win close games in conference play, they have a clear path to another nine or even 10-win season.

Why Appalachian State might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Line Rebuild: The loss of four starters on the offensive line, including the tragic passing of standout Jack Murphy, raises significant concerns about protection for Aguilar and the effectiveness of the running game, despite the influx of transfers.
• Defensive Inconsistency: While the defense returns many key players, it has steadily declined over the past few years, and without significant improvement, they could continue to struggle against the run, which might cost them in close games.
• Regression from Close Wins: App State’s tendency to rely on close wins could backfire, especially if the offensive line struggles to gel quickly or if the defense doesn’t make the expected improvements, making it difficult to replicate last season’s late surge.

Their rating is 62, Conference rating is 2, projected wins are 7.32 (under), with 10 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Arkansas State Red Wolves

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +148 to go over (implied probability: 40.32%) and -184 to go under (implied probability: 64.79%). Conference odds are +1600 with an implied probability of 5.88%. 

Why Arkansas State might go over their win total:

• Offensive Continuity: With Jaylen Raynor returning after a breakout freshman year, along with top skill position players like RB Ja’Quez Cross and WR Corey Rucker, the Red Wolves’ offense is loaded with young talent and experience that can build on last year’s late-season surge.
• Coaching Stability: Both coordinators have been with Butch Jones for all four years, a rarity in today’s college football, providing continuity in game planning and player development, which should help the team maintain momentum and improve consistency.
• Improved Depth: The addition of key transfers like QB Timmy McClain and WR Malik Hornsby, combined with returning starters, bolsters the team’s depth, especially on offense, giving them multiple options and the potential to surprise opponents.

Why Arkansas State might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Struggles: The defense was abysmal last year, ranking 127th nationally in total defense, and while there’s some returning experience, the loss of key players like their top sack leader could prevent significant improvement, leaving them vulnerable in high-scoring games.
• Offensive Line Issues: The season-ending injury to starting center Jacob Bayer is a major blow to an offensive line that already had question marks; if the line struggles to protect Raynor or open up running lanes, the offense might not reach its full potential.
• Tough Schedule: With games against Michigan, Iowa State, and a grueling Sun Belt slate, the Red Wolves face a challenging path to bowl eligibility, and even a slight dip in performance could lead to another season where they fall just short of their win total.

Their rating is 100, Conference rating is 10, projected wins are 5.44 (under), with 5 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +128 to go over (implied probability: 43.86%) and -158 to go under (implied probability: 61.24%). Conference odds are +2000 with an implied probability of 4.76%. 

Why Coastal Carolina might go over their win total:

• Quarterback Potential: Even with Grayson McCall’s departure, Coastal has intriguing options at quarterback, with Ethan Vasko showing promise in limited action and Michigan State transfer Noah Kim bringing experience; if one of them clicks, the offense could be just as potent as in recent years.
• Transfer Additions: Tim Beck’s bold strategy of bringing in FCS and Division II standouts, like WR Andre Jones and several defensive players, could pay off big if these lesser-known talents adapt quickly to the FBS level, adding much-needed depth and playmaking ability.
• Manageable Schedule: With nine games projected within a touchdown, Coastal’s schedule offers plenty of winnable matchups, especially if they can maintain the late-season momentum from last year and avoid key injuries.

Why Coastal Carolina might not go over their win total:

• Significant Turnover: The loss of top offensive players, including Grayson McCall and leading receivers like Sam Pinckney, combined with the departure of three starting linemen, leaves big shoes to fill, and the new faces may struggle to find chemistry and consistency early on.
• Defensive Depth Concerns: Only seven of the 18 defenders who saw significant snaps last year return, and while Beck brought in several transfers, relying on FCS and Division II players to immediately step up could lead to continued struggles on a defense that was already shaky.
• Inexperience at Key Positions: With significant turnover at quarterback, wide receiver, and along the offensive line, Coastal could face growing pains that result in an inconsistent offense, making it difficult to navigate a competitive Sun Belt and hit their win total.

Their rating is 87, Conference rating is 7, projected wins are 6.26 (slightly under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

Georgia Southern Eagles

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +110 to go over (implied probability: 47.62%) and -134 to go under (implied probability: 57.26%). Conference odds are +2500 with an implied probability of 3.85%.

Why Georgia Southern might go over their win total:

• Offensive Firepower: With two productive running backs returning in Jalen White and O.J. Arnold, and experienced receivers like Derwin Burgess Jr., the offense has the potential to put up big numbers again, especially if they find consistent quarterback play from Dexter Williams II or another emerging option.
• Defensive Experience: The defense returns a significant amount of experience, particularly in the front seven with playmakers like Justin Rhodes and Isaac Walker; this continuity could help the unit take a necessary step forward after struggling last season.
• Coin Flip Schedule: With many games projected to be within a touchdown, the experienced skill positions and potential defensive improvement could help the Eagles win close games, pushing them over their win total.

Why Georgia Southern might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: With a third starting quarterback in as many years, the offense’s success hinges on a smooth transition, but if Dexter Williams II or the other QBs struggle, it could stall the team’s progress and keep the offense from reaching its potential.
• Defensive Inconsistency: While the defense returns experience, it was one of the worst units in the country last year, and there’s no guarantee that simply returning players will lead to significant improvement, especially with concerns in the secondary.
• Tough Schedule: Georgia Southern faces a challenging schedule with several toss-up games where they are likely to be underdogs; if they can’t find a consistent offensive rhythm or defensive stability, they could easily fall short of the necessary wins to hit the over.

Their rating is 99, Conference rating is 9, projected wins are 5.34 (slightly under), with 3 games as projected favorites and 11 toss-up games.

 

Georgia State Panthers

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +134 to go over (implied probability: 42.74%) and -164 to go under (implied probability: 62.12%). Conference odds are +4800 with an implied probability of 2.04%.

Why Georgia State might go over their win total:

• Experienced Coaching Staff: With Dell McGee bringing in seasoned coordinators like Jim Chaney and Kevin Sherrer, Georgia State is poised to benefit from their extensive Power 5 experience, potentially translating to immediate on-field improvements.
• Transfer Talent Infusion: McGee’s connections have allowed Georgia State to pull in a significant number of talented transfers, particularly from Power 5 programs, which could elevate the team’s performance and fill key gaps across the roster.
• Defensive Potential: With returning contributors like linebacker Justin Abraham and cornerback Gavin Pringle, combined with the influx of new defensive talent, the Panthers could see marked improvement on a unit that struggled last year, giving them a better chance to compete in tight games.

Why Georgia State might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: With a new coaching staff and multiple transfer quarterbacks competing for the starting job, there’s a significant risk that the offense struggles to find its rhythm early in the season, hampering overall performance.
• Offensive Line Concerns: Losing key offensive linemen, including their top player who was drafted, raises significant questions about the unit’s ability to protect the quarterback and establish the run, which could stall the offense.
• Brutal Schedule: A tough schedule, including early byes and a grueling stretch of four consecutive road games, combined with potential depth issues, could wear down the team and lead to a rough season, making it difficult to hit the over on their win total.

Their rating is 106, Conference rating is 11, projected wins are 4.76 (slightly over), with 5 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

James Madison Dukes

Current Win Total is 8.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +128 to go over (implied probability: 43.86%) and -158 to go under (implied probability: 61.24%). Conference odds are +750 with an implied probability of 11.76%.

Why James Madison might go over their win total:

• Talented Transfers: Bob Chesney has brought in a slew of proven transfers, including former Power 5 quarterback Dylan Morris and 1,000-yard rusher Ayo Adeyi, which could keep the offense rolling despite massive turnover.
• Strong Defensive Additions: The Dukes might have lost a lot, but they’ve reloaded with impact players like FCS standout linebacker Jacob Dobbs and disruptive defensive end Eric O’Neill, giving them a chance to maintain their defensive dominance.
• Favorable Schedule: With no games against the top teams from the Sun Belt West, James Madison’s schedule is set up for success, potentially allowing them to rack up wins even while adjusting to a new coaching staff and roster.

Why James Madison might not go over their win total:

• Massive Roster Turnover: With only a few returning starters and 14 of 18 key defenders gone, the Dukes are essentially starting from scratch, making it difficult to replicate last year’s success right out of the gate.
• Coaching Transition: Transitioning from Curt Cignetti, who built the program’s recent success, to Bob Chesney introduces uncertainty, especially with an entirely new coaching staff trying to implement their systems in a single offseason.
• Depth Concerns: While the starting lineup looks solid, the depth behind them is thin, and any injuries could quickly derail a season that relies heavily on new faces to perform at a high level.

Their rating is 55, Conference rating is 1, projected wins are 8.64 (slightly over), with 10 games as projected favorites and 4 toss-up games.

 

Louisiana Monroe Warhawks

Current Win Total is 2.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +140 to go over (implied probability: 41.67%) and -172 to go under (implied probability: 63.24%). Conference odds are +35000 with an implied probability of 0.28%. 

Why Louisiana Monroe might go over their win total:

• Experienced Coaching Hire: Bryant Vincent’s success at UAB, where he helped turn around a struggling program, could translate to immediate improvements at ULM, especially with his experience in tough rebuilding jobs.
• Infusion of Transfers: With 15 transfers, including intriguing talents like QB General Booty from Oklahoma and four-star JUCO recruit Jaden Hamlin on defense, the Warhawks might surprise teams with a roster filled with overlooked talent.
• Manageable Early Schedule: The early matchup against Jackson State offers a winnable game, and if the team can build some early momentum, it might carry them to a couple of unexpected victories later in the season.

Why Louisiana Monroe might not go over their win total:

• Massive Roster Turnover: ULM ranks near the bottom nationally in returning production, with only 10 players back from last year, leading to a team that will likely struggle with cohesion and continuity, especially early in the season.
• Significant Talent Deficit: Despite bringing in numerous transfers, the overall roster strength has declined, and the Warhawks remain among the weakest teams in FBS, making it difficult to compete against a stronger Sun Belt.
• Tough Conference and Schedule: ULM faces a grueling schedule with only one projected winnable game, and with the Sun Belt’s improving depth, even lower-tier conference matchups could prove too challenging for a team in the midst of a complete rebuild.

Their rating is 130, Conference rating is 14, projected wins are 2.74 (slightly over), with 1 game as a projected favorite and 2 toss-up games.

 

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Conference odds are +550 with an implied probability of 15.38%.

Why Louisiana might go over their win total:

• Top-Notch Returning Experience: With the most returning production in the Sun Belt, including nine defensive starters and a veteran offensive line, this team has the depth and experience to capitalize on close games and push for a strong season.
• Quarterback Stability: Despite losing Zeon Chriss, the Cajuns have two experienced quarterbacks, Ben Wooldridge and Chandler Fields, both capable of leading the offense effectively, increasing the likelihood of finding a consistent and successful starter.
• Favorable Late-Season Schedule: The schedule sets up nicely down the stretch, with three home games against Arkansas State, South Alabama, and Troy, giving the Cajuns a solid chance to rack up wins in November when it matters most.

Why Louisiana might not go over their win total:

• Close-Game Struggles: With a dismal 2-9 record in one-score games over the past two seasons, there’s a legitimate concern that the team’s struggles in tight situations might continue, reflecting more on coaching issues than bad luck.
• Key Departures: The loss of emerging quarterback Zeon Chriss to Houston and the lack of depth on the defensive line after losing several key contributors could limit the team’s upside and leave them vulnerable in critical matchups.
• Coaching Uncertainty: Head coach Michael Desormeaux has yet to prove he can guide Louisiana back to the heights of the Billy Napier era, and if the team continues to falter in close games, it could be a sign that Desormeaux isn’t the long-term answer in Lafayette.

Their rating is 76, Conference rating is 4, projected wins are 6.53 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

Marshall Thundering Herd

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Conference odds are +1600 with an implied probability of 5.88%. 

Why Marshall might go over their win total:

• Strong Transfer Class: With 30 incoming transfers, including 18 from Power Four schools, Marshall has the talent infusion needed to address their roster gaps and potentially outperform expectations.
• Experienced Playmakers: Despite the turnover, key returning players like WR DeMarcus Harris and DTs TyQaze Leggs and Isaiah Gibson Sr. provide a solid foundation, especially on a defense that could rebound with the right tweaks.
• Air Raid Potential: New OC Seth Doege’s implementation of the Air Raid offense could catch Sun Belt defenses off guard, especially with talented QB transfers like Braylon Braxton ready to step in and lead the charge.

Why Marshall might not go over their win total:

• Massive Roster Turnover: With 34 players leaving and only one returning starter on offense, the Thundering Herd faces an uphill battle in terms of team chemistry and continuity, which could lead to struggles, particularly early in the season.
• Inconsistent Coaching: Charles Huff’s tenure has seen flashes of potential but also significant lapses, such as last season’s collapse after a strong start. If the coaching issues persist, Marshall may struggle to reach its win total.
• Tough Schedule and Defensive Questions: Facing a challenging non-conference slate and with a defense that plummeted from 17th to 98th in SP+, there are serious concerns about whether the defense can regain its form, especially with so many new faces.

Their rating is 94, Conference rating is 8, projected wins are 5.19 (slightly under), with 6 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Old Dominion Monarchs

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +116 to go over (implied probability: 46.3%) and -142 to go under (implied probability: 58.68%). Conference odds are +3000 with an implied probability of 3.23%.

Why Old Dominion might go over their win total:

• Returning Continuity: With QB Grant Wilson returning alongside two key receivers and most of the defensive front six, the Monarchs have a foundation of experience that could help them navigate close games and improve on last season’s record.
• Explosive Play Potential: WRs Kelby Williams and Dominic Dutton showed their big-play ability last season, and with a more experienced Wilson or a new face like BC transfer Emmett Morehead under center, ODU could capitalize on their knack for creating explosive plays.
• Battle-Tested in Close Games: After playing in 11 one-score games in 2023, this team is accustomed to tight situations, and that experience could translate into better results in 2024, especially in a Sun Belt full of competitive matchups.

Why Old Dominion might not go over their win total:

• Secondary Concerns: The Monarchs’ secondary is in a state of flux, with the top five players gone and a reliance on sophomores and transfers. This lack of experience could lead to vulnerabilities, especially against pass-heavy teams in the Sun Belt.
• Offensive Line Struggles: Last season, ODU’s offensive line gave up 62 sacks, the worst in the country. Without significant improvement in pass protection, the offense could struggle to sustain drives and keep Wilson or Morehead upright.
• Tough Schedule: With non-conference games against South Carolina, Virginia Tech, and East Carolina, and a challenging Sun Belt slate, there aren’t many easy wins on the schedule. The Monarchs will need to overachieve to reach a bowl game, and that might be too tall an order.

Their rating is 107, Conference rating is 12, projected wins are 4.32 (slightly under), with 32 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

South Alabama Jaguars

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -160 to go over (implied probability: 61.54%) and +128 to go under (implied probability: 43.86%). Conference odds are +1000 with an implied probability of 9.09%.

Why South Alabama might go over their win total:

• Emerging Talent at Quarterback: Gio Lopez showed tremendous potential in his limited starts last year, including an MVP performance in the bowl game. If he continues to develop, South Alabama could see an upgrade at quarterback, leading to more consistent offensive production.
• Continuity in Coaching Staff: Despite the transition to Major Applewhite as head coach, the Jaguars benefit from continuity with coordinators Rob Ezell and Will Windham being promoted from within. This could help maintain the stability and effectiveness of both the offensive and defensive systems.
• Favorable Schedule: The Jags are favored in eight games this season, and with a manageable non-conference slate, they have a real chance to capitalize on a favorable schedule and exceed their projected win total.

Why South Alabama might not go over their win total:

• Significant Roster Turnover: With only five offensive starters returning and major losses on defense, including eight starters, South Alabama faces a steep challenge in maintaining last year’s performance levels, especially under a new head coach.
• Inexperience at Key Positions: The loss of key players like QB Carter Bradley, RB La’Damian Webb, and WR Caullin Lacy means the team will rely heavily on less experienced players, which could lead to growing pains, particularly in close games.
• Uncertainty in Defensive Production: The defense, which was a strength last year under Kane Wommack, loses several key contributors. Without proven replacements, the defense might struggle to replicate its top-40 performance, potentially leading to more losses in a competitive Sun Belt.

Their rating is 84, Conference rating is 6, projected wins are 6.14 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +138 to go over (implied probability: 42.04%) and -170 to go under (implied probability: 62.96%). Conference odds are +4800 with an implied probability of 2.04%.

Why Southern Miss might go over their win total:

• Potential Upgrade at Quarterback: With Tate Rodemaker transferring from Florida State, Southern Miss could finally have the stability and talent at quarterback they’ve been missing, which could lead to a much-needed offensive boost.
• Strong Recruiting Class: Will Hall brought in the best recruiting class in the Sun Belt, including several SEC transfers, which should elevate the overall talent level and provide immediate contributors on both sides of the ball.
• Favorable Early Schedule: The Golden Eagles have a manageable early schedule, with winnable games against Southeastern Louisiana, USF at home, and ULM. If they build momentum early, they could reach five wins before the tougher part of their schedule kicks in.

Why Southern Miss might not go over their win total:

• Massive Roster Turnover: With only two offensive starters and three defensive starters returning, the Golden Eagles face significant challenges in rebuilding chemistry and experience, especially with a new quarterback leading the offense.
• Defensive Struggles: Last year, Southern Miss was ranked 126th in defensive SP+, and with a largely new secondary and unproven players filling key roles, it’s uncertain whether the defense can make the necessary improvements to keep games competitive.
• Tough Late-Season Schedule: The back half of the schedule is brutal, featuring games against James Madison, Marshall, Texas State, South Alabama, and Troy. If the team doesn’t capitalize early, a late-season collapse could easily derail their chances of hitting the win total.

Their rating is 117, Conference rating is 13, projected wins are 3.98 (under), with 1 game as projected favorite and 7 toss-up games.

 

Texas State Bobcats

Current Win Total is 8.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +108 to go over (implied probability: 48.08%) and -134 to go under (implied probability: 57.26%). Conference odds are +360 with an implied probability of 21.74%. 

Why Texas State might go over their win total:

• High-Octane Offense: G.J. Kinne transformed the Bobcats into a top-40 offense in his first season, and with the addition of Sun Belt Offensive Player of the Year Jordan McCloud at quarterback, this offense could be even more explosive in 2024.
• Strong Returning Core: With key players like 1,300-yard rusher Ismail Mahdi, top receivers Kole Wilson and Joey Hobert, and three offensive line starters back, Texas State has the continuity and firepower to score at will in the Sun Belt.
• Favorable Schedule: The Bobcats are favored in nearly every game this season, and with a well-balanced roster and a manageable schedule, they have a legitimate shot at winning the Sun Belt and potentially making a run at a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Why Texas State might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Concerns: Despite their offensive prowess, the Bobcats’ defense struggled last year, allowing 121 points in two games late in the season, and with a new coordinator and some key losses, it’s unclear if they can shore up those weaknesses.
• Pressure of Expectations: After a breakout season, Texas State now faces the pressure of high expectations. If the team falters early or injuries pile up, especially with a thin defense, it could derail their season.
• Tough Key Matchups: Games against Troy and South Alabama are critical, and if Texas State can’t pull off wins in those tougher Sun Belt matchups, it could jeopardize their chances of reaching eight or more wins.

Their rating is 81, Conference rating is 5, projected wins are 7.51 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Troy Trojans

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -105 to go over (implied probability: 51.22%) and -115 to go under (implied probability: 53.49%). Conference odds are +1600 with an implied probability of 5.88%.

Why Troy might go over their win total:

• Strong Program Foundation: Despite major turnover, Troy has a history of bouncing back quickly with new head coaches, and the program’s strong foundation and winning culture could help them exceed expectations even in a transitional year.
• Offensive Potential: With three returning offensive linemen, including standout guard Daniel King, and a deep stable of running backs led by Damien Taylor, Troy’s offense has the pieces to control the clock and grind out wins.
• Home-Field Advantage: Key games against Sun Belt contenders like Texas State and South Alabama are at home, giving Troy an edge in what could be close, season-defining matchups.

Why Troy might not go over their win total:

• Massive Roster Turnover: With only four returning starters and a complete rebuild on defense, the lack of continuity could lead to early struggles, especially with a new head coach and coordinators in place.
• Inexperienced Quarterback Situation: The expected starter, Goose Crowder, is unproven at this level, and any hiccups at the quarterback position could severely limit the offense’s effectiveness, especially in high-pressure games.
• Tough Schedule: Non-conference games against Memphis and Iowa, coupled with a challenging Sun Belt slate, mean that Troy will face several uphill battles, making it difficult to reach the win total in Parker’s first year.

Their rating is 72, Conference rating is 3, projected wins are 6.86 (slightly over), with 8 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

As far as the conference title game… I wouldn’t be surprised if James Madison found a way there, as the schedule lines up for them, and the roster they still have is power rated pretty highly… and, honestly, I don’t think their coaching hire is a downgrade… but all that said, I’m still going with App State and Texas State to meet in the title game, and I’m gonna take Texas State to win the conference.  I think GJ Kinne’s offense is going to flourish with Jordan McCloud, and that’s a title game that could see a lot of points… and for some reason I trust Texas St’s defense more than App’s offense this season.

 

Alright – let’s wrap this up.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

 

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.