Indiana vs UCLA (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Indiana vs UCLA (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
The Indiana Hoosiers travel to Pasadena to face the UCLA Bruins in a key Week 3 matchup at the Rose Bowl. Both teams are led by first-year head coaches, with Indiana’s Kurt Cignetti and UCLA’s Foster Williams looking to build momentum early in their tenures. Indiana comes into this game as a 3-point road favorite, while UCLA will look to defend their home turf after a shaky start to the season.
How to Watch Indiana vs UCLA
- Game Date: Saturday, Week 3
- Kickoff Time: 7:30 PM Eastern Time
- TV Channel: NBC
- Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Point Spread: Indiana -3
- Indiana must win by 4 points or more to cover, while UCLA can cover by winning outright or losing by less than 3 points.
- Total (Over/Under): 46
- A bet on the over wins if the combined score is 47 points or more. The under hits if the total score is 45 points or fewer.
- Moneyline:
- Indiana -153 (Bet $153 to win $100 if Indiana wins outright)
- UCLA +132 (Bet $100 to win $132 if UCLA wins outright)
The implied score from these odds is Indiana 24.5, UCLA 21.5.
Betting Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
- Point Spread: Indiana is favored by 3 points, meaning they need to win by at least 4 points to cover. UCLA can cover by either winning outright or losing by 2 points or fewer.
- Total (Over/Under): The total is set at 46 points, reflecting expectations of a low-scoring affair. Bettors can wager on whether the combined score will be over or under the set total.
- Moneyline: Betting on Indiana to win outright means a smaller payout for a larger investment, while a UCLA win would yield a bigger return due to their underdog status.
Implied Score and Injury Report
The implied score from the betting lines is Indiana 24.5, UCLA 21.5. As of now, there are no major injuries reported that would impact either team’s performance.
Game Analysis: Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana has looked impressive in their first two games, albeit against weaker competition. Head coach Kurt Cignetti has quickly instilled a disciplined, balanced approach, with an emphasis on fundamentals and a potent run game. Indiana is 10th in PPA margin, showing an ability to control both sides of the ball effectively.
Offense:
Led by quarterback Curtis Rourke, who transferred from James Madison, Indiana has demonstrated efficiency and control. Rourke has completed 73% of his passes for 421 yards and 3 touchdowns, while Indiana’s running game, spearheaded by Jaylin Lucas, is averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. The offensive line has improved, giving Rourke time to make smart decisions.
Defense:
Indiana’s defense has been stout, particularly against the run. They are ranked 2nd in early downs EPA allowed, meaning they are forcing teams into long third-down situations. With UCLA’s offense struggling, Indiana’s defense should have an edge in this matchup.
Game Analysis: UCLA Bruins
UCLA’s offense struggled mightily in their season opener against Hawaii, barely pulling out a 16-13 win. The Bruins have had difficulty moving the ball, and their once-feared defensive line is now a question mark. UCLA ranks 130th in offensive success rate, and their rushing attack has been largely ineffective.
Offense:
The Bruins have been unable to establish any consistency on offense. They rank 129th in points per quality possession and are near the bottom of the nation in rushing success. Quarterback Ethan Garbers has been serviceable but hasn’t shown the ability to carry the offense. The Bruins’ offensive line has struggled, allowing too much pressure and failing to create running lanes.
Defense:
UCLA’s defense has been average at best. Despite playing weaker competition, they rank 24th in opponent-adjusted EPA, but that’s largely due to facing a one-dimensional Hawaii offense. Indiana’s balanced attack could expose weaknesses in UCLA’s defensive front, especially after losing key players from last season.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Matchup
- Indiana: The Hoosiers are 3-7 against the spread as a road favorite since 2017, but this team under Kurt Cignetti appears much different than previous squads. Indiana has looked sharp in all phases of the game this season.
- UCLA: The Bruins have been solid as a home underdog, going 5-2 straight up and against the spread since 2019. However, they have struggled in recent games, and the offense has shown little promise early in the season.
In-Depth Matchup Breakdown
Indiana Game Plan:
Indiana’s balanced offensive attack, led by Rourke and Lucas, should give UCLA fits. The Hoosiers will look to establish the run early, forcing UCLA to bring extra defenders into the box. Once that happens, Rourke can take advantage of one-on-one matchups downfield. On defense, Indiana’s goal will be to shut down UCLA’s rushing game and force them into long third-down situations.
UCLA Strategy:
UCLA’s best chance in this game is to create turnovers and capitalize on Indiana’s mistakes. The Bruins will need to take more shots downfield and try to stretch the Indiana defense. If they can hit a few big plays early, they might be able to shake Indiana’s confidence and keep the game close. Defensively, they’ll need to get pressure on Rourke and force him into bad decisions.
Prediction: Indiana vs UCLA
Indiana’s fundamentals, balance, and coaching advantage under Kurt Cignetti give them a clear edge in this game. UCLA has yet to show that they can effectively move the ball or stop a balanced offensive attack like Indiana’s. Look for Indiana to control the tempo, win the battle in the trenches, and come away with a solid road victory.
Final Score Prediction: Indiana 27, UCLA 17
Pick: Indiana -3
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