Memphis vs Florida State (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Memphis vs Florida State (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
On Saturday morning, the Florida State Seminoles will host the Memphis Tigers in an intriguing storyline matchup. Head coach Mike Norvell will face his former team, while Memphis head coach Ryan Silverfield, Norvell’s former offensive line coach, will look to pull off an upset in Tallahassee. The game kicks off at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN, with Florida State favored by 6.5 points. Both teams are seeking to find momentum in what could be a pivotal Week 3 showdown.
Florida State has been struggling to live up to preseason expectations, while Memphis is eyeing a statement win against an ACC foe. Let’s break down what to expect in this matchup, covering the odds, predictions, and key storylines.
How to Watch Memphis vs Florida State
- Game Date: Saturday, Week 3
- Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM Eastern Time
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Point Spread: Florida State -6.5
Florida State is favored by 6.5 points. They need to win by at least 7 to cover the spread. Memphis can cover by losing by 6 or fewer points or winning outright. - Total (Over/Under): 52
The over/under is set at 52 points. A bet on the over wins if the combined score is 53 or more, while the under wins if the total is 51 or fewer points. - Moneyline:
- Memphis +210 (Bet $100 to win $210 if Memphis wins outright)
- Florida State -260 (Bet $260 to win $100 if Florida State wins outright)
The implied score from these betting odds is Florida State 29, Memphis 23.
Betting Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
- Betting Spread: With Florida State favored by 6.5 points, they must win by 7 or more to cover the spread. Memphis can cover if they lose by 6 or fewer points, or if they pull off the upset.
- Total (Over/Under): The total of 52 points suggests a moderately low-scoring game for a matchup between two teams known for offensive firepower under Mike Norvell’s schemes. A bet on the over wins if the combined score reaches 53 or more, while the under wins if 51 or fewer points are scored.
- Moneyline: Betting the moneyline means simply betting on which team will win outright. Florida State, as the favorite, has a smaller payout, while Memphis offers a larger payout for the upset.
Implied Score and Injury Report
The implied score based on the betting line is Florida State 29, Memphis 23. Both teams are relatively healthy entering this game, but Florida State’s inconsistency on both sides of the ball has been a major storyline.
Game Analysis: Florida State Seminoles
The Florida State Seminoles, coming off two tough losses, are in desperate need of a rebound. Head coach Mike Norvell will face off against his former team, Memphis, and must show that his program can bounce back from adversity. Despite being a 6.5-point favorite, Florida State has major questions, particularly on offense.
The Seminoles’ struggles have largely come from inefficiencies in both the running and passing games. Florida State is ranked 120th in offensive efficiency, and their rushing attack has been ineffective, ranking 119th in EPA per rush. The downfield passing game has not materialized, with quarterback DJ Uiagalelei unable to take advantage of defenses through the air.
On defense, Florida State has been equally concerning, ranking 129th in quality possessions allowed. Opponents are getting into scoring positions frequently and capitalizing when they do. If Florida State doesn’t clean up its defensive lapses, they could be in for a fight against Memphis.
Key to Watch: Florida State’s offensive line must improve, and the Seminoles need to generate explosive plays to overcome a Memphis team that has shown they can put up points.
Game Analysis: Memphis Tigers
Memphis enters this game 2-0, but they face a major challenge in their trip to Tallahassee. Quarterback Seth Henigan leads a Memphis offense that has been efficient, especially in the running game, where the Tigers have ranked 14th in EPA per rush. Their offensive efficiency could spell trouble for a Florida State defense that has struggled to stop the run.
Defensively, Memphis has been solid, allowing fewer big plays and ranking 22nd in PPA margin (Predicted Points Added). However, they’ll face their toughest test yet in trying to slow down a Florida State team that will be looking to get back on track.
Key to Watch: Memphis’ defense has a chance to capitalize on Florida State’s inefficiencies. If the Tigers can force the Seminoles into obvious passing situations, Memphis has the talent to hang around in this game.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Matchup
- Florida State: The Seminoles are 2-4 against the spread in their last six games as a home favorite. They have yet to cover a spread this season.
- Memphis: The Tigers have been less successful in outright wins, going 3-27 straight up in their last 30 games as a road underdog. However, they have been better against the spread, covering in two of their last three games as road dogs.
Despite their struggles in these roles, Memphis may be poised for a better showing this time, considering the Seminoles’ current form.
In-Depth Matchup Breakdown
Florida State’s Game Plan:
The Seminoles must focus on establishing the run and protecting quarterback DJ Uiagalelei. Florida State’s offensive line has underperformed, and if they don’t control the trenches, it will be difficult to create big plays. Defensively, Florida State will need to shore up their secondary and limit Memphis’ ability to capitalize on explosive plays.
Memphis’ Strategy:
The Tigers will look to test Florida State’s suspect defense. With Henigan’s ability to create big plays, Memphis will want to attack through the air and keep the Florida State defense on their heels. Defensively, Memphis must win the battle in the trenches and force Florida State into passing situations, where they’ve been inconsistent this season.
Prediction: Memphis vs Florida State
This game could come down to which team capitalizes on the other’s weaknesses. Florida State has more talent, but their poor form and inconsistent play give Memphis an opening to make this a closer game than the odds suggest.
Final Score Prediction: Florida State 28, Memphis 24
Pick: Memphis +6.5
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