Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Oklahoma State vs Tulsa (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
In an exciting in-state battle, the Oklahoma State Cowboys will make the short trip to take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane this Saturday. With Oklahoma State fresh off a double-overtime win over Arkansas, they’ll face a Tulsa team eager to prove themselves against their Power 5 rival. The game kicks off at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on ESPN2, and with the Cowboys favored by 20 points, this is one to watch.
Despite Oklahoma State’s 2-0 record, they’ve struggled to win the box score in both games, making this a more intriguing matchup than it might appear on paper. Tulsa, playing at home, will look to upset the Cowboys in what is likely their biggest game of the season.
How to Watch Oklahoma State vs Tulsa
- Game Date: Saturday, Week 3
- Kickoff Time: 12:00 PM Eastern Time
- TV Channel: ESPN2
- Location: Chapman Stadium, Tulsa, OK
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Point Spread: Oklahoma State -20
Oklahoma State is favored by 20 points. To cover, they need to win by 21 or more. Tulsa covers the spread if they lose by 19 or fewer points, or win outright. - Total (Over/Under): 63.5
The over/under is set at 63.5 points. Betting the over means you expect a combined score of 64 points or more, while betting the under means you expect fewer than 63 total points. - Moneyline:
- Tulsa +800 (Bet $100 to win $800 if Tulsa wins outright)
- Oklahoma State -1400 (Bet $1400 to win $100 if Oklahoma State wins outright)
The implied score from these betting odds is Oklahoma State 41.5, Tulsa 21.5.
Betting Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
- Betting Spread: With Oklahoma State favored by 20 points, they must win by more than 20 to cover the spread. Tulsa can cover by losing by 19 or fewer points or pulling off the upset.
- Total (Over/Under): The over/under of 63.5 means the bookmakers expect a fairly high-scoring game. If both teams combine for 64 points or more, the over bet wins; if they score 63 or fewer points, the under bet wins.
- Moneyline: Betting the moneyline means simply betting on which team will win the game outright. While Oklahoma State is the heavy favorite, Tulsa presents a much larger potential payout for those betting on the underdog.
Implied Score and Injury Report
The implied score based on the betting line is Oklahoma State 41.5, Tulsa 21.5. Both teams come into the game relatively healthy, but Oklahoma State’s star defensive player, Colin Oliver, is out, which could impact their defensive performance against Tulsa’s offense.
Game Analysis: Oklahoma State Cowboys
The Cowboys are 2-0, but it hasn’t been a convincing start. Oklahoma State squeaked out a double-overtime win against Arkansas last week, despite being outgained by 263 yards. Their offense has been heavily reliant on running back Ollie Gordon, but they’ve struggled to establish a consistent ground game. Oklahoma State ranks 120th in rushing success rate and 100th in offensive line yards, indicating a lack of push up front.
On defense, Oklahoma State has faced challenges as well. Despite their talent, the Cowboys rank 108th in early-down EPA, meaning they struggle to get off the field early in possessions. Losing defensive star Colin Oliver will only add to their issues.
Key to Watch: Oklahoma State needs to get their running game going. If they can’t establish dominance on the ground, Tulsa may hang around longer than expected.
Game Analysis: Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa has shown promise under head coach Kevin Wilson, but they’ve also played a weaker schedule. Still, they are ranked 24th in stuff rate, which measures how often their defense stops opposing runs at or behind the line of scrimmage. The Golden Hurricane will need that strong defensive front to show up against Oklahoma State’s struggling offensive line.
Offensively, Tulsa has been inconsistent but capable of creating big plays. The Golden Hurricane are ranked 12th in passing PPA (Predicted Points Added), which suggests they can strike through the air. Their offense, however, has had trouble converting those big plays into consistent scoring opportunities.
Key to Watch: Tulsa’s passing attack could take advantage of an Oklahoma State defense missing Colin Oliver, particularly with their ability to create explosive plays down the field.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Matchup
- Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as a favorite of two touchdowns or more. However, they are 5-1 against the spread as a road favorite since 2020.
- Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane have covered the spread in two of their last three meetings with Oklahoma State, although they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as a home underdog.
These trends suggest that while Oklahoma State typically struggles to cover big spreads, they’ve had recent success as a road favorite. Meanwhile, Tulsa has shown the ability to compete with the Cowboys but hasn’t fared well as a home underdog in recent games.
In-Depth Matchup Breakdown
Oklahoma State’s Game Plan:
Oklahoma State will look to get back on track offensively by establishing the run with Ollie Gordon and exploiting Tulsa’s defense through the air if necessary. Their defense will need to contain Tulsa’s passing game and avoid giving up explosive plays.
Tulsa’s Strategy:
Tulsa will aim to keep the game close by relying on their stout defensive front to limit Oklahoma State’s running game. Offensively, they’ll try to capitalize on Oklahoma State’s weakened secondary and create big plays downfield. Tulsa’s success will hinge on whether they can generate enough offense against a potentially vulnerable Oklahoma State defense.
Prediction: Oklahoma State vs Tulsa
This matchup sets up well for Tulsa to cover the spread. Oklahoma State has not been dominant in their first two games, and Tulsa’s ability to generate pressure and big plays could keep them in the game. Additionally, Oklahoma State may have their eyes on next week’s matchup against Utah, making this a potential lookahead spot.
Final Score Prediction: Oklahoma State 38, Tulsa 24
Pick: Tulsa +20
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