Oregon vs Oregon State (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Oregon vs Oregon State (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
The “Civil War” rivalry takes center stage this week as the Oregon Ducks visit the Oregon State Beavers at Reser Stadium in Corvallis. Historically a fierce in-state battle, this game carries added weight as Oregon aims to bounce back from a shaky start to the season. The Ducks opened as 13.5-point favorites, but early betting action has pushed the spread to 16. Despite Oregon’s struggles, Oregon State’s solid performance makes this one of the most intriguing matchups of Week 3.
How to Watch Oregon vs Oregon State
- Game Date: Saturday, Week 3
- Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM Eastern Time
- TV Channel: Fox
- Location: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Point Spread: Oregon -16
- Oregon needs to win by more than 16 points to cover. Oregon State can cover by winning outright or losing by less than 16 points.
- Total (Over/Under): 50
- A bet on the over wins if the combined score is 51 or more points. The under hits if the total is 49 or fewer points.
- Moneyline:
- Oregon -750 (Bet $750 to win $100 if Oregon wins outright)
- Oregon State +505 (Bet $100 to win $505 if Oregon State wins outright)
The implied score from these odds is Oregon 33, Oregon State 17.
Betting Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
- Point Spread: Oregon is heavily favored at -16, meaning they must win by more than 16 points to cover the spread. Oregon State can lose by up to 15 points and still cover.
- Total (Over/Under): The total of 50 points suggests a more defensive game, with both teams expected to struggle to hit big plays.
- Moneyline: The moneyline favors Oregon heavily, offering a big payout for bettors who think Oregon State can pull off the upset at home.
Implied Score and Injury Report
The implied score based on the odds is Oregon 33, Oregon State 17. As of now, neither team has reported significant injuries that would impact the outcome of this game.
Game Analysis: Oregon Ducks
Oregon’s 2024 season has been underwhelming thus far, with the Ducks falling short of preseason expectations. The team is still finding its rhythm, particularly on offense.
Offense:
Oregon’s offense has struggled to find its groove, particularly in the run game. The Ducks rank 72nd in EPA per rush, despite having a veteran quarterback in Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel is completing over 83% of his passes, but his average depth of target has been much lower than expected, suggesting a conservative game plan. The offensive line has allowed minimal pressure on Gabriel, but the lack of big plays is concerning. Oregon is ranked 121st in explosive plays, meaning the team is struggling to generate the kind of downfield action it needs to put away opponents.
Defense:
Defensively, Oregon’s inability to stop the run has been alarming. Last week, they struggled against Boise State’s Ashton Gentry, and this week they face a potent Oregon State rushing attack. The Ducks are ranked 79th in EPA per rush allowed, and their defensive front will need to step up against Oregon State’s dual-threat running backs. Oregon’s secondary has been solid, but their inability to stop the run could expose them in this matchup.
Key to Watch:
Oregon must find a way to slow down the Beavers’ rushing attack. If they can’t, this game could be closer than the 16-point spread suggests.
Game Analysis: Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State has exceeded expectations so far this season, and the Beavers are a dangerous underdog at home. Known for their physical style of play, Oregon State thrives on playing mistake-free football and grinding out wins.
Offense:
The Beavers’ offense is built around their ground game. Running backs Griffin and Henderson have been fantastic, both averaging over 5.5 yards per carry with three rushing touchdowns apiece. Oregon State ranks 11th in EPA per rush, making them one of the most efficient running teams in the country. While their passing game remains a work in progress, the Beavers’ ability to dominate in the trenches has kept them competitive.
Defense:
Oregon State’s defense has also been impressive, particularly against the run. While they haven’t faced an offense as talented as Oregon’s yet this season, their ability to control the line of scrimmage will be crucial. Oregon State’s secondary, though largely untested, will need to step up against a Ducks team that could look to open up the passing game to compensate for their struggles on the ground.
Key to Watch:
Can Oregon State’s rushing attack wear down Oregon’s defense? If the Beavers can control the clock and limit the Ducks’ possessions, they could keep this game close.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Matchup
- Oregon: The Ducks have covered 7 straight games as a road favorite. Despite their recent struggles, they remain a betting favorite in hostile environments.
- Oregon State: The Beavers have won the last two meetings in Corvallis outright and three of the last four home games in the series. Oregon State is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 as a home underdog.
Both teams are 5-5 against the spread in their last 10 matchups, with Oregon winning big last year, 31-7. However, the Beavers have shown they can compete with the Ducks, particularly at home.
In-Depth Matchup Breakdown
Oregon’s Game Plan:
Oregon will look to establish the run early, but they’ll need to be more explosive through the air if they want to put away Oregon State. Dillon Gabriel’s ability to stretch the field and test Oregon State’s secondary will be key. On defense, the Ducks must tighten up against the run, as Oregon State’s ground game has been their bread and butter.
Oregon State’s Strategy:
Oregon State will stick to what they do best: running the football. Griffin and Henderson will be the focal points of the offense as they look to wear down Oregon’s defensive front. If the Beavers can control the clock and keep Oregon’s offense off the field, they have a chance to keep this game close. Defensively, Oregon State must limit big plays and force Oregon to sustain long drives.
Prediction: Oregon vs Oregon State
This rivalry game has all the makings of a close battle. Oregon’s offense has yet to click, and their struggles stopping the run could be a huge factor against a team like Oregon State that thrives on running the football. While the Ducks are the more talented team on paper, Oregon State’s home-field advantage and gritty play style make them a live underdog.
Final Score Prediction: Oregon 27, Oregon State 21
Pick: Oregon State +16
Remember to:
- Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything podcast for expert college football analysis and predictions. Click here to listen.
- Follow the Winning Cures Everything YouTube page for in-depth video content. Subscribe here.
- Subscribe to the BetUS College Football Show on YouTube for even more picks and insights. Subscribe here.
- Become a member at BettingCFB.com for exclusive content, stats, and expert picks! Visit BettingCFB.com.
- Check the latest College Football Odds. View Odds.
Blog generated by AI
