West Virginia vs Pittsburgh (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
West Virginia vs Pittsburgh (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
The Backyard Brawl returns for another chapter as the West Virginia Mountaineers head to Pittsburgh to face the Pitt Panthers. One of college football’s oldest rivalries, this game is always packed with emotion and intensity. The Mountaineers come into Week 3 as slight 2-point road favorites, while Pitt looks to build on a miraculous comeback victory last week. With both teams showcasing potential weaknesses and strengths, this rivalry showdown promises to deliver drama and excitement.
How to Watch West Virginia vs Pittsburgh
- Game Date: Saturday, Week 3
- Kickoff Time: 3:30 PM Eastern Time
- TV Channel: ESPN2
- Location: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Point Spread: West Virginia -2
- West Virginia needs to win by more than 2 points to cover the spread. Pitt can cover if they win outright or lose by 1 point.
- Total (Over/Under): 61
- A bet on the over wins if the combined score is 62 or more points. The under hits if the total is 60 or fewer.
- Moneyline:
- West Virginia -130 (Bet $130 to win $100 if West Virginia wins outright)
- Pittsburgh +105 (Bet $100 to win $105 if Pitt wins outright)
The implied score from these odds is West Virginia 31.5, Pittsburgh 29.5.
Betting Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
- Point Spread: A 2-point spread indicates a close game. West Virginia must win by more than 2 points to cover, while Pitt covers if they win or lose by less than 2 points.
- Total (Over/Under): The total of 61 points suggests a potentially high-scoring game, with both teams expected to find the end zone frequently.
- Moneyline: A bet on the moneyline simply picks the winner. West Virginia is favored, but Pitt offers a more profitable payout for an outright victory.
Implied Score and Injury Report
The implied score based on the betting odds is West Virginia 31.5, Pittsburgh 29.5. Neither team is dealing with significant injuries heading into this rivalry matchup, meaning both sides will likely be at full strength.
Game Analysis: West Virginia Mountaineers
West Virginia enters the Backyard Brawl as the road favorite, but their performance so far leaves room for improvement, particularly on defense.
Offense:
The Mountaineers’ offense is built around a powerful running game. Running back CJ Donaldson has been a workhorse, averaging 6.4 yards per carry and contributing six runs of 10+ yards in just two games. While the Mountaineers remain run-heavy, the offensive line has been impressive, protecting quarterback Garrett Greene and creating space for Donaldson. However, the passing game has yet to fully develop, with only 53 total pass attempts through two games. If Pitt can slow down the run, West Virginia will need to lean more on Greene’s arm to find success.
Defense:
West Virginia’s defense has struggled, particularly against the pass. The Mountaineers rank 128th in expected points added (EPA) per pass, which spells trouble against a Pitt team that has leaned more heavily on its passing attack this season. While West Virginia’s run defense is stout, ranking much higher in efficiency, the secondary must tighten up to prevent Pitt from finding big plays down the field.
Key to Watch:
Can West Virginia’s secondary step up against a Pitt passing attack that has been more aggressive and successful than expected? If not, the Mountaineers may find themselves in a shootout.
Game Analysis: Pittsburgh Panthers
Pitt is coming off a thrilling comeback victory and will look to carry that momentum into their rivalry game against West Virginia.
Offense:
Pitt’s offense, led by quarterback Phil Jurkovec, is more pass-heavy than in previous seasons. The Panthers rank 33rd nationally in passing success rate and 29th in passing explosiveness. Offensive coordinator Cade Bell has brought a new look to the Pitt offense, using more run-pass options (RPOs) and play-action to keep defenses off balance. Running back Rodney Hammond Jr. adds balance with a strong ground game, but the team’s bread and butter has been through the air. If Jurkovec can avoid costly mistakes (eight turnover-worthy plays in two games), Pitt could exploit West Virginia’s weak secondary.
Defense:
Pitt’s defense has been solid but not as dominant as in previous years. They rank 34th in expected points allowed per play, but their run defense will be tested against West Virginia’s rushing attack. Pitt’s defensive line must find a way to contain Donaldson and force West Virginia into third-and-long situations.
Key to Watch:
Will Pitt’s up-tempo passing attack find success against a vulnerable West Virginia secondary? If Pitt can hit explosive plays in the passing game, they have a great chance of pulling off the upset.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Matchup
- West Virginia: The Mountaineers have covered 6 of the last 9 meetings in the Backyard Brawl, but they’ve struggled as a road favorite, going just 2-7-1 against the spread in their last 10 games in that role.
- Pittsburgh: The Panthers have been solid as home underdogs, covering 7 of their last 11 games in that role. Additionally, Pitt has won 6 of those games outright, making them a dangerous underdog.
Pitt won the last meeting between these two in 2022, but West Virginia covered the spread. This rivalry always delivers hard-fought games, and this year’s edition is likely to be no different.
In-Depth Matchup Breakdown
West Virginia’s Game Plan:
West Virginia will look to dominate on the ground, utilizing CJ Donaldson to control the clock and wear down Pitt’s defense. If Greene can find a rhythm in the passing game, the Mountaineers could open things up offensively. Defensively, they must find a way to contain Pitt’s passing attack and limit explosive plays.
Pittsburgh’s Strategy:
Pitt’s offense will likely rely on Jurkovec and the passing game to stretch the field and create mismatches against West Virginia’s secondary. With a fast tempo and an aggressive game plan, Pitt will aim to keep the Mountaineers off balance. Defensively, Pitt needs to focus on stopping the run and forcing West Virginia into obvious passing situations.
Prediction: West Virginia vs Pittsburgh
The Backyard Brawl is always a tough game to predict, with emotions running high and both teams eager to claim bragging rights. West Virginia’s strong running game and Pitt’s aggressive passing attack set the stage for a back-and-forth contest.
Final Score Prediction: Pittsburgh 30, West Virginia 28
Pick: Take Pittsburgh +2, and consider the over on 61 points given both teams’ defensive vulnerabilities.
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