Liberty vs Appalachian State (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

The Liberty Flames head to Boone, North Carolina, to face off against the Appalachian State Mountaineers in a Week 5 matchup that has significant implications for both programs. Though this game was expected to be a marquee matchup in the Group of Five, both teams have underperformed to start the season. However, Liberty still carries momentum and is favored to win on the road against an Appalachian State team reeling from a tough loss.

Let’s dive into the odds, predictions, and key storylines as we break down what to expect from this intriguing showdown.

How to Watch Liberty vs Appalachian State

• Game Date: Saturday, Week 5
• Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Location: Kidd Brewer Stadium, Boone, NC

The Liberty Flames and Appalachian State Mountaineers will face off in Boone, with the game airing on ESPN+. Fans should mark their calendars for 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time to catch all the action. Kidd Brewer Stadium, known for its electric atmosphere, will be buzzing as App State looks to bounce back from a rough showing last week.

Betting Odds and Line Breakdown

• Spread: Liberty -3.5
• Moneyline: Appalachian State +138, Liberty -160
• Total Points (Over/Under): 62.5

Liberty comes into this game as a 3.5-point favorite on the road, with Appalachian State a slight home underdog at +138 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 62.5, reflecting the potential for a high-scoring affair between two offenses that have the capability to put points on the board.

Betting Spread

The spread represents how many points a team is favored to win by. In this game, Liberty is favored by 3.5 points, meaning they must win by at least 4 points for a bet on them to cover. Conversely, if you bet on Appalachian State, they need to either win the game outright or lose by fewer than 4 points. Liberty’s strong run game, paired with App State’s defensive struggles, suggests that the Flames could cover the spread.

Moneyline

The moneyline is a simple bet on which team will win the game outright. Liberty is favored at -160, meaning you’d need to bet $160 to win $100, while Appalachian State is the underdog at +138, meaning a $100 bet would return $138 if they pull off the upset. Given App State’s recent struggles, Liberty is a safer pick on the moneyline.

Total Points (Over/Under)

The total points (over/under) is a bet on the combined score of both teams. The line is set at 62.5 points, meaning you can wager on whether the final score will be over or under that number. With both teams showing vulnerabilities on defense and Liberty’s offensive firepower, the over may be appealing in this case, particularly if Appalachian State’s offense finds rhythm after last week’s struggles.

Implied Score and Game Analysis

With the spread and over/under, the implied final score is around Liberty 33, Appalachian State 29. This reflects a close game with both teams expected to score, but Liberty has the edge in this contest based on their superior recent form and App State’s defensive issues.

Injury Report

• Liberty: Liberty has no major injuries reported ahead of this game, keeping their offensive and defensive units intact. Quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley are key players to watch.
• Appalachian State: Appalachian State has had some struggles with consistency, but their roster remains healthy. The bigger concerns for the Mountaineers lie in their performance on the field, particularly on defense.

In-Depth Game Breakdown

Liberty’s Offense vs. Appalachian State’s Defense

Liberty’s offense, led by quarterback Kaidon Salter, has been efficient but hasn’t yet reached its full potential. They rank 35th in rushing efficiency, thanks largely to Quinton Cooley, who has powered the Flames’ ground attack. This presents a nightmare matchup for Appalachian State, whose defense has been abysmal against the run, ranking last in the country in PPA (Predicted Points Added) allowed per rush.

App State’s defense has struggled mightily, especially last week when they allowed 322 rushing yards and 7.9 yards per carry to South Alabama. Their inability to stop the run plays right into Liberty’s strength, and head coach Jamie Chadwell is likely licking his chops at the chance to exploit App State’s weaknesses. If Appalachian State’s defense doesn’t tighten up quickly, Liberty could control the clock and dominate on the ground.

Appalachian State’s Offense vs. Liberty’s Defense

Appalachian State’s offense, led by quarterback Joey Aguilar, has been inconsistent this season. Aguilar has not replicated last year’s form, posting a disappointing 58.0 PFF passer rating so far in 2024. While he has solid weapons in the receiving corps, App State’s offensive line hasn’t been able to protect him effectively, and the running game has failed to make up for that deficiency.

App State will need to rely on explosive plays in the passing game if they hope to keep pace with Liberty, but they’ve struggled to generate consistent success. Liberty’s defense, while not elite, has been opportunistic and could capitalize on any mistakes Aguilar and the Mountaineers make.

Betting Pick and Final Prediction

While Appalachian State has had success at home in the past, their recent form, particularly on defense, raises significant red flags. Liberty’s powerful run game and the coaching advantage Jamie Chadwell brings should be enough to give the Flames control of the game. Liberty’s balance on both sides of the ball should lead them to a comfortable victory.

Prediction: Liberty 35, Appalachian State 28

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