Louisville vs Notre Dame (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

Louisville vs Notre Dame (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

The Louisville Cardinals will travel to South Bend, Indiana, to take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in an exciting Week 5 showdown. With both teams performing well early in the season, this matchup has all the makings of a thrilling contest. Notre Dame, known for its defensive strength, will look to stop Louisville’s high-powered offense under head coach Jeff Brohm. Louisville, on the other hand, aims to continue its unbeaten run and pull off an upset in South Bend.

Let’s break down the odds, predictions, and key details for this game, along with a deep dive into how these teams match up.

How to Watch Louisville vs Notre Dame

  • Game Date: Saturday, Week 5
  • Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: Peacock (Streaming Only)
  • Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN

To catch this exciting game, fans will need to stream it exclusively on Peacock. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time, and Notre Dame Stadium will provide a raucous home-field advantage for the Fighting Irish. With Peacock broadcasting the game, fans will need to ensure they have access to the streaming platform ahead of time.

Betting Odds and Line Breakdown

  • Spread: Notre Dame -6
  • Moneyline: Louisville +190, Notre Dame -230
  • Total Points (Over/Under): 48

The Fighting Irish are favored by 6 points at home, while Louisville comes in as a +190 underdog, offering a solid payout for bettors who believe they can win outright. The total points, or over/under, is set at 48, suggesting that this could be a moderately low-scoring game given both teams’ defensive strengths.

Betting Spread

The spread represents how much a team is favored to win by. Notre Dame is favored by 6 points, meaning they need to win by at least 7 for a bet on them to cover the spread. If you bet on Louisville, they can either win outright or lose by fewer than 6 points to cover the spread. Given Notre Dame’s home-field advantage, the spread slightly leans toward the Fighting Irish.

Moneyline

The moneyline is a simple bet on which team will win outright. Notre Dame is the favorite at -230, meaning a $230 bet on them would net $100 if they win. Louisville, at +190, offers a good return on a $100 bet, which would earn $190 if they pull off the upset. With Louisville being a 6-point underdog, the moneyline reflects that Notre Dame is expected to win, but not by a large margin.

Total Points (Over/Under)

The total points bet, also known as the over/under, is a wager on the combined score of both teams. For this game, the over/under is set at 48 points. Bettors can wager on whether the combined final score will be over or under that number. Both teams have solid defenses, which could push some bettors to lean toward the under in this matchup.

Implied Score and Game Analysis

With a 6-point spread and an over/under of 48, the implied final score is around Notre Dame 27, Louisville 21. This suggests that while Notre Dame is expected to win, the game could be close, and Louisville has a good chance to keep it within reach.

Louisville’s Offense vs. Notre Dame’s Defense

Louisville’s offense, led by quarterback Jack Plummer, has been explosive this season, ranking 12th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. The Cardinals are especially dangerous in the passing game, where they rank 8th in EPA per dropback. However, Notre Dame’s defense has been elite against the pass, ranking 2nd in EPA per dropback allowed. The key for Louisville will be establishing the run to keep the Irish defense honest, but that may prove difficult as Notre Dame excels at controlling the line of scrimmage.

Notre Dame has had some struggles defending explosive plays, which could give Louisville the opportunity to create big moments. However, Louisville’s inconsistency on offense and Notre Dame’s ability to generate pressure with their front seven will likely make it tough for the Cardinals to maintain sustained drives.

Notre Dame’s Offense vs. Louisville’s Defense

Notre Dame’s offense has been led by veteran quarterback Sam Hartman, but it’s the ground game that has powered their success this season. Ranking 10th in EPA per rush, the Fighting Irish will look to exploit Louisville’s rush defense, which has been leaky in terms of allowing big plays (ranking 119th in rushing explosiveness allowed). However, Louisville has been effective at limiting overall rushing success, ranking 5th in EPA per rush allowed.

One of Notre Dame’s challenges this season has been inconsistency in the passing game. While Hartman is a proven quarterback, the Irish have lacked a go-to receiver. This has limited their offensive explosiveness, especially when facing tougher competition. Notre Dame’s offense will need to generate consistent drives and finish in the red zone to avoid letting Louisville hang around.

Injury Report

  • Louisville: The Cardinals have no major injuries heading into this game, allowing them to field a full-strength squad.
  • Notre Dame: Notre Dame enters this game with most of their key players healthy, which will be crucial as they look to contain Louisville’s dangerous offense.

Detailed Game Breakdown

Notre Dame’s ability to stop explosive plays and control the tempo with their rushing attack will be the key to this game. Louisville’s offense under Jeff Brohm has been able to generate big plays, but Notre Dame’s defense excels at keeping offenses out of the end zone. The matchup between Notre Dame’s defensive front and Louisville’s offensive line will be pivotal in determining whether the Cardinals can score consistently.

Notre Dame’s offense will rely heavily on the ground game, but Sam Hartman’s ability to hit key throws will be essential, especially if Louisville’s defense can slow down the run. Louisville’s defense has been solid, but they haven’t faced an offense as balanced as Notre Dame’s yet this season. If Notre Dame can control the clock and limit turnovers, they should be able to win this game comfortably.

Betting Pick and Final Prediction

Both teams are coming into this game with solid records, but Notre Dame’s home-field advantage and defensive strength should be the deciding factors. Louisville has shown flashes of potential but hasn’t faced a defense as strong as Notre Dame’s. While Louisville could keep it close, expect the Fighting Irish to cover the spread in this one.

Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Louisville 20

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