Florida State vs SMU (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Florida State vs SMU (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Watch the Video here: Florida State vs SMU College Football Week 5 Predictions
The SMU Mustangs are set to host their first-ever ACC conference game as they take on the Florida State Seminoles in Week 5 of college football. Both teams are looking to establish momentum, with SMU coming off a dominant performance against their rival and Florida State eager to prove themselves after a narrow win against Cal. This matchup kicks off at 8 p.m. Eastern on the ACC Network, and it promises to be a compelling clash between two teams trying to find their footing.
TV Channel and Kickoff Time for Florida State vs SMU
For fans looking to watch the action unfold, the game will air live on the ACC Network. It’s set to kick off at 8 p.m. Eastern time, so make sure to have your streaming or cable options ready to go by then.
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
The current betting odds for this game offer a look into how oddsmakers expect this matchup to play out:
- Point Spread: SMU -5.5
- Moneyline: Florida State +183 | SMU -220
- Total (Over/Under): 48 points
What Is the Betting Spread?
A betting spread represents the margin by which the favored team is expected to win. In this game, SMU is favored by 5.5 points. This means that for a bet on SMU to pay off, they must win by six points or more. If you bet on Florida State with the spread, they must either win outright or lose by fewer than six points for your wager to succeed.
Understanding the Moneyline
The moneyline is a straight bet on who will win the game, without the consideration of the point spread. In this matchup:
- A Florida State win would net you $183 on a $100 wager.
- Betting on SMU requires risking $220 to win $100.
The Total (Over/Under)
The total refers to the combined number of points scored by both teams. For this game, the over/under is set at 48 points. If you bet the over, you expect the teams to score more than 48 points combined. If you take the under, you’re betting that their combined score will be less than 48 points.
The implied score based on these odds is roughly SMU 27, Florida State 21, setting the stage for a competitive but manageable game for the Mustangs.
Implied Score and What to Expect
With an implied score of 27-21 in favor of SMU, the oddsmakers expect a reasonably close contest, but one where SMU has the upper hand. Florida State’s offense has struggled significantly this season, averaging under 300 total yards per game. The Seminoles have managed to score 21 points or fewer in all four games so far this year, and they’ve shown no signs of breaking out of that slump.
SMU, on the other hand, seems to have found some momentum after a rocky start. With a change at quarterback and a bolstered running game, the Mustangs have started to click on offense, particularly behind running back Brashard Smith, who averages over seven yards per carry.
Injury Report
One major development for Florida State is their ongoing struggles with the offensive line. Ranked 112th in run blocking and 113th in offensive line yards, the Seminoles’ front line has been one of the most significant weak points of their team. This has contributed to the lackluster performance of quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei, who has struggled under constant pressure and a lack of protection.
SMU’s defense, meanwhile, is a formidable force. Ranked 25th in success rate on defense and 18th in yards per carry allowed, they are well-equipped to shut down Florida State’s already struggling offense. With their defensive line boasting NFL-level talent, SMU will likely aim to dominate the trenches and put pressure on Uiagalelei.
Game Analysis: Florida State’s Struggles vs SMU’s Resurgence
Florida State’s Offensive Woes
Florida State’s offense has been inconsistent at best, with quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei unable to get into any rhythm. The team ranks 130th in yards per carry, making their running game one of the least effective in the nation. In their recent win over Cal, the Seminoles averaged just 4.2 yards per play, while Cal managed 5.5 yards per play. Florida State benefited from some key moments but was fortunate to escape with the win, as indicated by their post-game win expectancy of just 33%.
Their inability to move the ball on the ground has put even more pressure on the passing game, but without adequate protection, Uiagalelei has been unable to stretch the field. This will be a key factor against SMU’s defense, which has excelled at limiting explosive plays.
SMU’s Balanced Attack
On the other side of the field, SMU has been trending upward. After a quarterback change, the Mustangs have found stability with Kevin Jennings under center. Jennings led SMU to a dominant win last week, and his calm presence has allowed the offense to flow more smoothly. In the backfield, Brashard Smith has emerged as a star, providing a consistent ground threat with over seven yards per carry.
Defensively, SMU ranks 18th in yards per carry allowed and 25th in success rate. This defensive strength, combined with Florida State’s poor offensive line play, could result in a long night for the Seminoles.
Keys to the Game For SMU, the key will be to apply pressure on Florida State’s offensive line, forcing Uiagalelei to make quick decisions under duress. Given their poor run game, Florida State will likely struggle to find balance on offense, putting them in predictable passing situations that could lead to turnovers.
For Florida State, they’ll need to improve their offensive line play significantly. If they can’t find a way to protect Uiagalelei and open running lanes, they’ll struggle to put points on the board. SMU’s defense is strong, and Florida State’s lack of offensive production thus far does not inspire confidence.
Predictions: SMU Covers, Florida State Stays Under
Given Florida State’s inability to score more than 21 points in any game this season, it’s reasonable to expect them to struggle again against a stout SMU defense. The Mustangs should be able to take advantage of Florida State’s weak offensive line, which will likely lead to stalled drives and limited scoring opportunities.
Final Prediction: SMU 28, Florida State 17
SMU looks like the stronger, more balanced team, and the home-field advantage will play a significant role. Florida State’s offensive struggles combined with SMU’s ability to capitalize on mistakes will likely result in a decisive victory for the Mustangs.
Key Takeaways and Betting Advice
- SMU -5.5 is a solid pick given Florida State’s offensive issues.
- Florida State’s team total under 21.5 is also worth considering, as they’ve yet to surpass 21 points in a game this season.
- SMU’s defense should dominate, and the home crowd will provide a further edge.
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