Illinois vs Penn State (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Illinois vs Penn State (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Watch the Video here: Illinois vs Penn State College Football Week 5 Predictions
The Illinois Fighting Illini are headed to Happy Valley for a Big Ten clash against the Penn State Nittany Lions in Week 5 of college football. This game carries high stakes, especially considering Illinois’ stunning nine-overtime win over Penn State in 2021. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC, and both teams will look to prove themselves in this critical matchup. Penn State is heavily favored, but can Illinois pull off another upset? Let’s break it all down.
TV Channel and Kickoff Time for Illinois vs Penn State
For fans eager to catch this exciting Big Ten showdown, the game will air live on ABC at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. Beaver Stadium will be packed, creating an electric atmosphere for this crucial contest.
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
The current betting odds for the Illinois vs Penn State game are as follows:
- Point Spread: Penn State -18
- Moneyline: Illinois +650 | Penn State -1000
- Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
What Is the Betting Spread?
The point spread represents the margin of victory that oddsmakers expect. Here, Penn State is favored by 18 points, meaning they need to win by at least 19 points for a bet on them to pay out. If you bet on Illinois, they either need to win outright or lose by fewer than 18 points for your wager to be successful.
Understanding the Moneyline
The moneyline is a straightforward bet on which team will win the game. In this matchup:
- A bet on Illinois would pay out $650 for every $100 wagered if the Illini win.
- A bet on Penn State would require risking $1,000 to win $100.
The Total (Over/Under)
The total is the combined number of points both teams are expected to score. For this game, the over/under is set at 47.5 points. If you bet the over, you’re wagering that the teams will combine for more than 47.5 points. If you take the under, you expect the combined score to be less than 47.5.
With an implied score of roughly Penn State 33, Illinois 15, the oddsmakers expect a comfortable win for the Nittany Lions, though Illinois may put up a fight.
Implied Score and What to Expect
The implied score for this matchup suggests a strong performance from Penn State. The Nittany Lions have been on a roll this season, and their offense—led by quarterback Drew Allar—has been explosive. Penn State is ranked 12th in offensive explosiveness, and their ability to generate big plays through the air has helped them put up points quickly.
On the other hand, Illinois will need to lean on its defensive strengths. The Fighting Illini rank 47th in explosive play rate, meaning they’ve done a decent job of limiting big plays from opponents. However, facing Penn State’s offense will be a serious test.
Injury Report
A significant injury for Penn State is the absence of starting safety Keaton Ellis, who will miss this game. His absence could expose some vulnerabilities in the Nittany Lions’ secondary, which Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer could look to exploit.
For Illinois, the offensive line has been performing well, especially after a solid showing against Nebraska, where they controlled the trenches. This will be key if Illinois hopes to slow down Penn State’s relentless defensive front.
Game Analysis: Penn State’s Dominance vs Illinois’ Grit
Penn State’s Explosive Offense
Drew Allar has continued to grow in his role as Penn State’s starting quarterback, leading an offense ranked 4th in points per play action pass and 9th in overall EPA (expected points added) margin. Allar’s ability to stretch the field with accurate downfield throws has added a dynamic element to the Nittany Lions’ attack. Penn State’s offense will look to exploit Illinois’ defense with a balanced attack of deep passes and a strong run game.
Illinois’ Defense Holding the Line
Illinois, led by quarterback Luke Altmyer, will need to lean on its defense to stay in this game. The Fighting Illini’s defense has been disruptive, ranking 17th in EPA per dropback. However, they’ll face their toughest challenge yet against a Penn State offense that can attack in multiple ways. Altmyer has been solid but will need to elevate his game if Illinois has any hope of pulling off the upset.
Key Matchups
The most significant matchup to watch will be between Penn State’s offensive line and Illinois’ defensive front. If Illinois can generate pressure on Allar and force quick decisions, they may be able to limit Penn State’s big-play potential. On the flip side, if Penn State can neutralize the Illinois pass rush, Allar will have time to pick apart the secondary.
Predictions: Penn State Rolls, Illinois Covers the Spread
Given the strengths of both teams, this game is shaping up to be a hard-fought battle. Penn State’s offense is firing on all cylinders, but Illinois’ defense could pose enough of a challenge to keep the game closer than the 18-point spread suggests. While Penn State should win comfortably, Illinois has a history of performing well as a double-digit road underdog.
Final Prediction: Penn State 31, Illinois 17
Penn State will win, but Illinois’ defense may be strong enough to keep the game within the spread. The under also seems like a solid play, as both defenses are capable of limiting explosive plays.
Key Takeaways and Betting Advice
- Illinois +18 offers value, as the Fighting Illini have covered six straight games as a double-digit road underdog since 2021.
- Consider taking the under 47.5 points, given both teams’ defensive capabilities.
- Penn State is likely to win, but don’t be surprised if Illinois keeps it closer than expected.
Don’t Forget:
- Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything podcast.
- Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything YouTube page.
- Subscribe to the BetUS College Football Show on YouTube.
- Become a member at BettingCFB.com for bonus content, stats, picks & more!
- Check the latest College Football Odds.
Blog generated by AI
