Baylor vs Iowa State (Week 6): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Baylor vs Iowa State (Week 6): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Watch the Video here: Baylor vs Iowa State | College Football Week 6 Predictions, Picks and Best Bets
Baylor vs Iowa State Game Preview
The Baylor Bears travel to Ames, Iowa, to face the Iowa State Cyclones in a pivotal Big 12 matchup on Saturday, October 5, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on FOX. Coming off two close losses, Baylor is desperate to get back on track. Meanwhile, Iowa State is looking to stay undefeated and prove they are a legitimate contender in the Big 12. The Cyclones are currently 11.5-point home favorites, and Baylor is priced at +345 on the moneyline for anyone betting on a major upset. The total for the game is set at 45 points, implying a score around Iowa State 28, Baylor 17.
TV Channel and Kickoff Time for Baylor vs Iowa State
Catch the Big 12 clash between Baylor and Iowa State on FOX at 7:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Saturday, October 7.
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
Here are the current betting lines for the Week 6 matchup between Baylor and Iowa State:
- Point Spread: Iowa State -11.5
- Moneyline: Baylor +345 | Iowa State -480
- Total (Over/Under): 45 points
Betting the Spread
Iowa State is favored by 11.5 points, meaning they need to win by 12 or more points to cover the spread. Baylor can cover if they lose by 11 points or fewer or win outright.
Betting the Moneyline
A bet on Iowa State (-480) requires a $480 wager to win $100, while a $100 bet on Baylor (+345) would return $345 if they pull off the upset.
Betting the Total (Over/Under)
The total is set at 45 points. Betting the over means you expect the combined score of both teams to exceed 45 points. Betting the under means you’re predicting fewer than 45 points will be scored.
The implied score based on these lines is approximately Iowa State 28, Baylor 17.
Implied Score and What to Expect
The implied score of 28-17 suggests Iowa State is expected to control the game with a strong defensive showing. Baylor’s offensive struggles this season could be amplified by Iowa State’s defense, while Iowa State’s methodical offense could grind out a comfortable victory.
Injury Report
Both teams will need to watch for any lingering injuries, especially on their offensive lines and key skill positions. Any missing starters could make a significant impact, especially in a conference as competitive as the Big 12.
Game Analysis: Offense vs Defense
Baylor’s Offensive Struggles
Baylor has struggled offensively this season, with a 105th ranking in PPA per drive. Despite hiring Jake Spavital as offensive coordinator, the Bears have not seen the improvement they hoped for, especially in finishing drives, where they rank 113th in points per scoring opportunity. The Bears’ offensive line has also struggled, ranking 101st in run blocking, which has stifled their ability to generate consistent yardage on the ground. If Baylor hopes to keep pace with Iowa State, they will need to clean up these areas.
Iowa State’s Stout Defense
Iowa State has been impressive on defense, ranking 2nd in PPA allowed per drive and 25th in success rate allowed. However, there are still questions about the strength of their schedule. The Cyclones have faced weaker offenses, such as FCS teams and underperforming opponents like Houston and Arkansas State. Still, this defense is disciplined and capable of creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They will be a tough challenge for Baylor’s inconsistent offense.
Key Matchups to Watch
- Baylor’s Offensive Line vs Iowa State’s Defensive Front: Baylor’s struggles with pass protection and run blocking will be tested against a well-coached Iowa State front seven. If Baylor’s line continues to falter, their offense could stall early and often.
- Iowa State’s Running Game vs Baylor’s Run Defense: Iowa State’s running back, Abu Sama, has shown explosiveness this season. Baylor’s defense, while respectable in some areas, has allowed teams like Utah and BYU to move the ball effectively. If Iowa State can establish the run, it could be a long night for the Bears.
Predictions: Will Baylor Collapse, or Can They Rally?
Baylor has been competitive in recent weeks, fighting back from deficits against strong teams. However, this could be the week where exhaustion and a tough road environment lead to a letdown. Iowa State’s defense is too disciplined, and their offense, though not explosive, is efficient enough to grind out a win against Baylor.
Final Prediction: Iowa State 31, Baylor 17
Expect Iowa State to control the game, using their defense to stymie Baylor’s offense while steadily building a lead. Baylor may put up a fight, but Iowa State should cover the 11.5-point spread.
Key Takeaways and Betting Advice
- Iowa State -11.5 is a solid play, especially given Baylor’s recent offensive struggles and Iowa State’s impressive defense.
- Leaning towards the over may also be a good option if the total dips below 45, as both teams have gone over this total in recent matchups.
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