SMU vs Louisville (Week 6): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

SMU vs Louisville (Week 6): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

Watch the Video here: SMU vs Louisville College Football Week 6 Predictions

SMU vs Louisville Game Preview

In a clash of undefeated conference teams, the SMU Mustangs will travel to Louisville to take on the Louisville Cardinals in what promises to be an exciting showdown. Both teams enter the game riding high after big performances, but only one will continue their winning ways. Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.

TV Channel and Kickoff Time for SMU vs Louisville

Tune in to ESPN to catch the SMU vs Louisville matchup at 12:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.

Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained

Here’s a breakdown of the betting odds for the game:

  • Point Spread: Louisville -7
  • Moneyline: SMU +205 | Louisville -250
  • Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points

Betting the Spread

The spread for this game is Louisville -7. This means that Louisville needs to win by 8 or more points to cover the spread. On the other side, if SMU loses by 6 points or fewer or wins outright, they cover the spread.

Betting the Moneyline

The moneyline is straightforward:

  • A bet on SMU at +205 means a $100 bet would yield $205 if they win outright.
  • A bet on Louisville at -250 means you’d need to bet $250 to win $100.

Betting the Total (Over/Under)

The total is set at 57.5 points. Betting the over means you think both teams will combine for more than 57.5 points, while betting the under means you expect fewer total points.

The implied score here is approximately Louisville 32, SMU 25, indicating a competitive matchup with Louisville projected to come out on top.

Implied Score and What to Expect

Based on the odds, Louisville is expected to pull out a solid win, but SMU’s strong defense and newly invigorated offense under QB Kevin Jennings could keep this one close. Louisville’s home-field advantage and strong offensive line may be the difference in what could turn into a back-and-forth battle.

Injury Report

As of now, there are no major injuries reported for either team, but it’s always worth checking closer to game time for any updates that could impact the betting lines.

Game Analysis: Offense vs Defense

SMU’s Defensive Strengths
SMU has quietly become a strong defensive team this season. They rank 22nd in defensive EPA (expected points added), and the defensive line has been disruptive, led by Roberts, Harvey, Smith, and Hunty, who have combined for 10 total pressures. If SMU can disrupt Louisville QB Tyler Shuck, they can limit Louisville’s offensive potential.

Louisville’s Explosive Offense
On the other side, Louisville ranks 15th in offensive EPA and is a consistent threat to score. Louisville has been efficient, and Tyler Shuck has shown the ability to make critical throws in tough situations. Their ability to stretch defenses with explosive plays could be the key against an SMU defense that’s been solid but not tested to this degree.

Key Matchups

  • Louisville’s Offensive Line vs SMU’s Defensive Front: SMU’s defensive line has the potential to cause chaos, but if Louisville’s offensive line can protect Shuck, Louisville could dominate through the air.
  • SMU’s Passing Game vs Louisville’s Secondary: SMU’s QB situation has stabilized with Kevin Jennings under center, but this is a tough road test. Louisville’s defense has been vulnerable in the passing game, ranking poorly against the pass, and Jennings has the weapons to exploit that.

Predictions: Can SMU Keep It Close?

Louisville’s Defense Needs to Step Up
Louisville’s defense has struggled against the pass this season, which plays right into SMU’s strength. If SMU’s offensive line can protect Jennings, the Mustangs have a legitimate chance to keep this game close, if not pull off the upset.

SMU’s Road Struggles
SMU has had trouble covering the spread on the road, going 0-6 against the spread as a road dog since 2021, except for their big win at Tulane last year. Louisville, on the other hand, has dominated as a home favorite, covering 13 out of their last 16 games in that role.

Final Prediction: Louisville 34, SMU 27

While SMU’s defense may keep this game close, Louisville’s offense should be able to score enough to win by at least a touchdown. Take Louisville -7 but watch for SMU to fight hard in this one.

Key Takeaways and Betting Advice

  • Consider betting Louisville -7, as they’ve been excellent at home, and SMU has struggled as a road underdog.
  • The over 57.5 looks promising if both offenses are clicking, especially given SMU’s newfound explosiveness.
  • Louisville’s strong home-field advantage and balanced offense should carry them to a win.

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