Watch the video: https://youtu.be/Oo31BRc1XTU

 

We’re carrying on with our 2024 conference previews with college football’s most wildcard conference – the Big 12.

 

And when I say wild card, there’s legitimately about 8 teams that could win the conference title and I don’t think anybody would be surprised.  And there’s probably a couple more that could actually win it, and those would be considered surprises, even though the schedules and rosters setup for it.  Of course, there’s 4 new schools for the 2nd straight year – this time the 4 corner schools setup, and it’s the first time that Texas and Oklahoma won’t be in the league, which leaves it up for basically everybody else.  The only schools still in the conference that have won a league title since 2012 are Kansas St and Baylor… unless you want to count TCU’s shared title with Baylor in 2014.  Regardless… there’s basically 8 new faces in this 16 team league.

 

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For each of these conference previews, I’m gonna give you 3 reasons why each team might go over, 3 of why they might go under… and I’ll give you the number of projected wins from my numbers.  So let’s dive in…

Arizona Wildcats

Current Win Total is 7.5, opened at 8.5, with odds of -122 to go over (implied probability: 54.95%) and -104 to go under (implied probability: 50.98%). Odds to win the conference are +1200 with an implied probability of 7.69%.

Why Arizona might go over their win total:

• Dynamic Offense: With QB Noah Fifita and WR Tetairoa McMillan leading the charge, Arizona’s offense has the firepower to challenge any defense in the Big 12, especially with the addition of talented transfers who add depth and versatility to the skill positions.
• Proven Program Builder: New head coach Brent Brennan has a track record of turning around programs, and his familiarity with key players like Quali Conley and Sam Olson from San Jose State should smooth the transition and maintain offensive momentum.
• Defensive Upgrades: Despite losing key pieces, the Wildcats have added 11 experienced transfers on defense, including standout talents like Kevon Darton and Lance Keneley, who can help solidify a unit that showed promise last season.

Why Arizona might not go over their win total:

• Coaching Transition: The departure of Jedd Fisch and the introduction of a new system under Brennan could lead to growing pains, especially early in the season as players adjust to different schemes and play-calling philosophies.
• Defensive Uncertainty: The defense returns only eight of the 18 key contributors from last season, and while the transfer additions are promising, relying heavily on new faces could result in inconsistency, particularly against the high-powered offenses in the Big 12.
• Tough Schedule: Arizona faces a challenging slate, including road games at Utah and Kansas State, which could derail their momentum, particularly if early losses shake the team’s confidence in Brennan’s first season.

Their rating is 21, Conference rating is 3, projected wins are 8.13 (over), with 9 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Arizona State Sun Devils

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +142 to go over (implied probability: 41.32%) and -176 to go under (implied probability: 63.77%). Odds to win the conference are +12000 with an implied probability of 0.83%.

Why Arizona State might go over their win total:

• Transfer Talent: With a massive influx of 29 transfers, including former blue-chippers like QB Sam Leavitt, RB Raleek Brown, and DT J’Mond Tapp, ASU has added significant talent that could quickly elevate the team’s overall performance.
• Improved Depth: The Sun Devils have strengthened key positions across the board, particularly on the offensive line and defensive backfield, which should help stabilize a team that was plagued by inconsistency last season.
• Coaching Energy: Kenny Dillingham’s youthful energy and offensive acumen could spark rapid development, especially with an improved roster and a second year to implement his system, potentially surprising a few opponents along the way.

Why Arizona State might not go over their win total:

• Ongoing Rebuild: Despite the influx of talent, integrating 29 new players into the roster is a massive challenge, and it might take time for this group to gel, especially against a tough schedule that includes seven top-50 opponents.
• Quarterback Uncertainty: With a potential true freshman starter in Sam Leavitt and late transfer Jeff Sims still in the mix, the quarterback position remains unsettled, which could lead to inconsistent offensive performances.
• Tough Schedule: The Sun Devils face a grueling schedule, including matchups against Utah, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State, making it difficult to find enough wins, even if they show significant improvement from last season.

Their rating is 74, Conference rating is 15, projected wins are 4.06 (slightly under), with 3 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Baylor Bears

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -105 to go over (implied probability: 51.22%) and -115 to go under (implied probability: 53.49%). Odds to win the conference are +8000 with an implied probability of 1.23%. 

Why Baylor might go over their win total:

• Experienced Roster: With the fifth-highest returning production in the country and key transfers like QB Dequan Finn and WR Ashtyn Hawkins, Baylor has the talent and experience to make a significant jump from last season’s struggles.
• Offensive Potential: The combination of Finn’s dual-threat ability and a strong supporting cast, including Monaray Baldwin and Ketron Jackson Jr., gives the Bears the firepower needed to keep pace in high-scoring Big 12 matchups.
• Favorable Schedule: Baylor is favored in several key games, and if they can capitalize on early winnable matchups, a bowl game is well within reach, with potential to exceed expectations.

Why Baylor might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Concerns: Despite Aranda’s defensive pedigree, the Bears were among the worst in the nation last season, ranking 132nd against the pass, and the defensive line remains a significant question mark heading into 2024.
• Inconsistent Play: Last year’s 3-9 record wasn’t a fluke, as the team struggled across the board, and even with improvements, it’s uncertain whether they can consistently perform at a higher level throughout the season.
• Tough Matchups: The schedule includes challenging games against Utah, Texas, and Kansas State, where any slip-ups could derail their chances of reaching six wins, especially if the defense doesn’t show marked improvement.

Their rating is 48, Conference rating is 11, projected wins are 5.97 (slightly over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

BYU Cougars

Current Win Total is 4.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +104 to go over (implied probability: 49.02%) and -128 to go under (implied probability: 56.14). Odds to win the conference are +14000 with an implied probability of 0.71%.

Why BYU might go over their win total:

• Defensive Improvement: With seven freshmen or sophomores gaining significant experience last year, the Cougars’ defense could see substantial growth, especially with standout players like DE Tyler Batty and CB Jakob Robinson leading the way.
• Home Field Advantage: LaVell Edwards Stadium is a tough place to play, and BYU has the chance to pull off upsets against higher-ranked opponents like Oklahoma State and Kansas State in front of a passionate home crowd.
• Roster Stability: Returning key contributors on both sides of the ball, including four of the top six offensive linemen and seven of the top eight receivers, provides continuity that could lead to a more consistent performance compared to last season’s struggles.

Why BYU might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: With Jake Retzlaff unimpressive in his late-2023 starts and a crowded QB room with no clear standout, the offense might continue to struggle, especially in a tough Big 12 schedule.
• Inadequate Run Defense: The Cougars’ run defense was a glaring weakness last year, and with only one returning lineman over 300 pounds, they could get pushed around by more physical Big 12 teams, leading to prolonged defensive issues.
• Challenging Schedule: With a schedule ranked 25th in strength, including tough road games and several matchups against top-50 opponents, BYU may find it difficult to secure enough wins to surpass the 4.5 total, especially if they can’t capitalize on early-season opportunities.

Their rating is 73, Conference rating is 14, projected wins are 4.20 (slightly under), with 3 games as projected favorites and 5 toss-up games.

 

Cincinnati Bearcats

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -120 to go over (implied probability: 54.55%) and -102 to go under (implied probability: 50.50%). Odds to win the conference are +8000 with an implied probability of 1.23%.

Why Cincinnati might go over their win total:

• Offensive Continuity: With all five offensive line starters returning and Corey Kiner leading the rushing attack after a strong 2023 season, the Bearcats have the foundation to control the tempo and build a more consistent offense.
• Winnable Early Schedule: The first four games, including matchups against Towson, Miami (OH), and Houston, present a prime opportunity for Cincinnati to build early momentum and set the tone for the rest of the season.
• Transfer Impact: With key additions like Indiana transfer QB Brendan Sorsby and multiple defensive upgrades, Cincinnati has the potential to significantly improve both offensively and defensively, giving them a realistic shot at reaching bowl eligibility.

Why Cincinnati might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: Brendan Sorsby, though promising, remains unproven at the Power 5 level, and any struggles at the QB position could derail an offense that was inconsistent in 2023.
• Defensive Vulnerability: The defense, despite adding transfers, still has major question marks, especially in the secondary, which could lead to more big plays allowed and difficulties closing out tight games.
• Transition Challenges: With a new head coach still finding his footing and a significant turnover in key positions, Cincinnati might struggle to find the cohesion needed to compete consistently in a tough Big 12 conference.

Their rating is 68, Conference rating is 13, projected wins are 5.11 (slightly under), with 4 games as projected favorites and 7 toss-up games.

 

Colorado Buffalo

Current Win Total is 5.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -128 to go over (implied probability: 56.14%) and +104 to go under (implied probability: 49.02%). Odds to win the conference are +2500 with an implied probability of 3.85%.

Why Colorado might go over their win total:

• Elite Skill Positions: With Shedeur Sanders at quarterback and a dynamic receiving corps led by Travis Hunter and Jimmy Horn Jr., Colorado has the firepower to outscore opponents and stay competitive in every game.
• Defensive Upgrades: Coach Prime brought in a slew of impact transfers on defense, including proven disruptors like Dayon Hayes and B.J. Green II, which could transform last year’s vulnerable unit into a strength.
• Manageable Schedule: The early part of Colorado’s schedule features winnable games against teams like North Dakota State and Nebraska, setting them up to build momentum and push for bowl eligibility.

Why Colorado might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Line Concerns: Despite new additions, the offensive line remains a question mark, and if it doesn’t improve, Shedeur Sanders could face constant pressure, limiting the effectiveness of the offense.
• Inexperience and Cohesion: With 11 transfer starters, this team may struggle with chemistry and cohesion, which could lead to inconsistency, especially against more established Big 12 opponents.
• Hype vs. Reality: The overwhelming hype surrounding Coach Prime’s program might overshadow the real challenges they face in a tough Big 12 conference, making a significant leap in wins less likely than anticipated.

Their rating is 50, Conference rating is 12, projected wins are 5.76 (slightly over), with 4 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

Houston Cougars

Current Win Total is 3.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -142 to go over (implied probability: 58.68%) and +116 to go under (implied probability: 46.30%). Odds to win the conference are +10000 with an implied probability of 0.99%.

Why Houston might go over their win total:

• Proven Winner: Willie Fritz has a history of turning programs around quickly, and his track record suggests that he could engineer a few surprising wins even in his first year at Houston.
• Quarterback Potential: With Donovan Smith’s size and arm strength, combined with Zeon Chriss’ dual-threat abilities, Houston’s offense has the potential to be dynamic and hard to stop, especially with the talent in the receiving corps.
• Improved Defense: The influx of defensive transfers, including proven disruptors like Keith Cooper and Kendre Gant, could transform a previously struggling unit into one that can keep games close and give the offense a chance to win.

Why Houston might not go over their win total:

• Inexperienced Defense: With 17 new defensive transfers and only four returning players, the defense might take time to gel, leading to early-season struggles against tougher competition.
• Offensive Line Concerns: Replacing three starters on the offensive line with transfers and JUCO players could result in protection issues, which might limit the effectiveness of Smith and Chriss at quarterback.
• Tough Schedule: Houston faces a daunting schedule with multiple ranked teams in the Big 12, making it difficult to find the necessary wins, especially if the team doesn’t hit the ground running.

Their rating is 80, Conference rating is 16, projected wins are 3.89 (slightly over), with 2 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Iowa State Cyclones

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -115 to go over (implied probability: 53.49%) and -105 to go under (implied probability: 51.22%). Odds to win the conference are +950 with an implied probability of 9.52%. 

Why Iowa State might go over their win total:

• Returning Production: Iowa State ranks first nationally in returning production, bringing back key players like QB Rocco Becht and a massive offensive line, which should lead to a more cohesive and effective unit on both sides of the ball.
• Defensive Strength: The Cyclones boast a defense that finished in the top 30 of the SP+ rankings last year, and with nearly all primary linemen and secondary members returning, this unit has the potential to be a top-20 defense, especially if they can develop a pass rush.
• Proven Resilience: Matt Campbell’s teams are known for playing above their talent level, and with a schedule full of close games, their experience and toughness could lead to them eking out enough wins to surpass the projected total.

Why Iowa State might not go over their win total:

• Lack of Explosive Talent: Despite high returning production, Iowa State’s overall roster strength ranks just 70th, indicating that while they are experienced, they may lack the high-end talent needed to consistently win close games in a competitive Big 12.
• Inconsistent Offense: While Rocco Becht showed promise last year, the offense’s inconsistency and a relatively unproven receiving corps might struggle against better defenses, particularly in high-pressure situations.
• Tough Close Games: Iowa State has notoriously struggled in one-score games, winning just three of their last 16. With a schedule loaded with tight matchups, their inability to close out games could be the difference between hitting the over and falling short.

Their rating is 35, Conference rating is 8, projected wins are 6.92 (under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Kansas Jayhawks

Current Win Total is 8.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +138 to go over (implied probability: 42.02%) and -170 to go under (implied probability: 62.96%). Odds to win the conference are +1000 with an implied probability of 9.09%. 

Why Kansas might go over their win total:

• Explosive Offense: With QB Jalon Daniels and RB Devin Neal returning, along with a veteran receiving corps, the Jayhawks boast one of the most dynamic offenses in the Big 12, capable of outscoring opponents even in high-pressure games.
• Favorable Schedule: Kansas benefits from a relatively soft schedule, with winnable games early and a favorable setup that avoids some of the conference’s toughest teams, making a path to eight or more wins plausible.
• Experienced Coaching: Lance Leipold has steadily built this program into a contender, and with the offensive talent on hand, he has the tools to guide Kansas to one of its best seasons in recent history.

Why Kansas might not go over their win total:

• Injury Concerns: Jalon Daniels’ health is a significant question mark; his absence could severely impact the offense’s efficiency and leave Kansas struggling to keep pace in a competitive Big 12.
• Defensive Inconsistency: Despite improvements, the defense still has vulnerabilities, particularly in stopping the run and creating consistent pressure, which could lead to shootouts that the Jayhawks might not always win.
• Depth Issues: Kansas faces depth concerns, especially on the offensive line and in the front six on defense, which could become problematic over the course of a long season, particularly if injuries strike.
• Also… extra one here… they don’t play, really, a single home game.  Some games are at Arrowead in Kansas City, home of the Chiefs, which is 40 minutes from campus, and the non-con games are at Children’s Mercy Park, which only holds about 18k.

Their rating is 28, Conference rating is 5, projected wins are 8.06 (under), with 10 games as projected favorites and 9 toss-up games.

 

Kansas State Wildcats

Current Win Total is 9.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +118 to go over (implied probability: 45.87%) and -144 to go under (implied probability: 59.02%). Odds to win the conference are +400 with an implied probability of 20%. 

Why Kansas State might go over their win total:

• Emerging Talent: QB Avery Johnson has shown flashes of brilliance in limited action, and with the dynamic duo of RB DJ Giddens and WR Jayce Brown, this offense could be even more explosive than last season, giving K-State a legitimate shot at double-digit wins.
• Consistent Defense: The Wildcats return a strong defensive core with 13 players who saw significant snaps last season, including standout linebackers Austin Moore and Desmond Purnell, making it likely they’ll maintain their reputation as a top defensive unit in the Big 12.
• Proven Coaching: Chris Klieman has demonstrated his ability to maximize the potential of his roster, and with the Wildcats’ track record of outperforming expectations, there’s confidence that he can guide this team to another successful season, possibly exceeding their 9.5 win total.

Why Kansas State might not go over their win total:

• Inexperience at Key Positions: With the departure of key offensive players like Will Howard and three starting offensive linemen, the Wildcats face significant uncertainty, particularly with a young QB in Avery Johnson who has limited experience leading the offense.
• Roster Depth Concerns: Despite a solid defense, the overall roster strength is lower than previous seasons, and the Wildcats may struggle to compete against deeper, more talented teams in the Big 12, leading to potential slip-ups in close games.
• Tough Schedule: The Wildcats face a challenging slate of games, including matchups against Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Colorado, where any lapse in performance could lead to multiple losses, making it difficult to reach the 10-win mark needed to hit the over.

Their rating is 18, Conference rating is 2, projected wins are 8.41 (under), with 12 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Current Win Total is 8.5 (up from the 7.5 opener), with odds of +122 to go over (implied probability: 45.05%) and -150 to go under (implied probability: 60%). Odds to win the conference are +800 with an implied probability of 11.11%. 

Why Oklahoma State might go over their win total:

• Returning Experience: With 18 returning starters, including the entire offensive line and the nation’s best running back in Ollie Gordon II, the Cowboys have the cohesion and firepower needed to surpass their win total, especially in a wide-open Big 12.
• Veteran Leadership: QB Alan Bowman, despite some inconsistencies, brings years of experience and stability to the offense, which could translate into more consistent performances and close wins in tight matchups.
• Defensive Continuity: With 13 key defenders returning, including standout linebackers Nick Martin and Collin Oliver, the defense is poised to improve under Bryan Nardo, making it tough for opponents to score and giving OSU a solid chance to control games.

Why Oklahoma State might not go over their win total:

• QB Uncertainty: Alan Bowman’s inconsistent play and high interception rate could hold back the offense, especially against stronger defenses in the Big 12, leading to potential losses in close games where better QB play is crucial.
• Overreliance on Gordon: While Ollie Gordon II is a star, defenses will likely sell out to stop him, forcing Bowman to make plays under pressure, which could expose the offense’s limitations and lead to struggles against tougher opponents.
• Tough Schedule: With several coin-flip games against teams like Utah, Kansas State, and TCU, even a slight drop in performance from last year could result in multiple losses, making it difficult for OSU to reach nine wins.

Their rating is 22, Conference rating is 4, projected wins are 7.84 (under), with 10 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

TCU Horned Frogs

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of +122 to go over (implied probability: 45.05%) and -150 to go under (implied probability: 60.0%). Odds to win the conference are +2100 with an implied probability of 4.55%. 

Why TCU might go over their win total:

• Offensive Potential: With Josh Hoover showing flashes of brilliance last season and a solid group of receivers, the Horned Frogs have the firepower to outscore opponents, especially if Hoover continues to develop and command the offense.
• Defensive Improvement: The addition of former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator, coupled with the return of key defensive players and new pass-rushing talent, could see TCU’s defense rebound and play a pivotal role in securing close wins.
• Experience in Close Games: After a disappointing 0-4 record in one-score games last season, TCU’s experience in tight contests could translate into better decision-making and execution in critical moments, pushing them over the win total.

Why TCU might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Line Rebuild: With a largely new offensive line and an unproven running back group, the offense might struggle to protect Hoover and establish a consistent ground game, leading to offensive inefficiencies.
• Turnover in Key Positions: The heavy reliance on transfers, especially on defense and the offensive line, may result in continuity issues early in the season, putting TCU at risk in crucial games.
• Tough Big 12 Schedule: Facing a challenging slate with several toss-up games, even a small dip in performance from last season could result in multiple losses, making it difficult for TCU to reach eight wins.

Their rating is 30, Conference rating is 6, projected wins are 6.93 (under), with 9 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -115 to go over (implied probability: 53.49%) and -105 to go under (implied probability: 51.22%). Odds to win the conference are +1800 with an implied probability of 5.26%.

Why Texas Tech might go over their win total:

• Versatile Offense: With the explosive Tahj Brooks returning to anchor the run game and a revamped offensive line bolstered by experienced transfers, the Red Raiders have the tools to control the tempo and wear down defenses, creating a path to exceeding their win total.
• Proven Resilience: Joey McGuire’s squad has shown it can adapt and overcome challenges, as evidenced by their ability to shift from a pass-heavy offense in Year 1 to a ground-and-pound approach in Year 2, making them a tough team to game-plan against.
• Favorable Early Schedule: Texas Tech is favored in its first five games, giving the Red Raiders a strong opportunity to build momentum and confidence before entering the tougher stretches of their Big 12 schedule.

Why Texas Tech might not go over their win total:

• Quarterback Uncertainty: Behren Morton’s lingering injury concerns and the lack of spring practice reps could hinder the offense’s ability to develop the necessary chemistry, especially with a brand-new receiving corps and offensive line.
• Defensive Inexperience: With a young and relatively unproven defense, Texas Tech may struggle against more experienced offenses in the Big 12, particularly if injuries test their depth in key positions.
• Tough Close Games: Despite a favorable start, the Red Raiders face several toss-up games later in the season, where even minor missteps could result in crucial losses, making it difficult to surpass their win total.

Their rating is 38, Conference rating is 9, projected wins are 7.57 (slightly over), with 8 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

UCF Knights

Current Win Total is 7.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -134 to go over (implied probability: 57.26%) and +110 to go under (implied probability: 47.62%). Odds to win the conference are +800 with an implied probability of 11.11%. 

Why UCF might go over their win total:

• Dynamic Offense: With KJ Jefferson leading a potent offense that includes two 1,400-yard rushers in RJ Harvey and Peny Boone, the Knights have the firepower to dominate on the ground and open up big-play opportunities in the passing game, giving them a clear path to surpassing their win total.
• Strategic Transfers: Gus Malzahn’s aggressive use of the transfer portal has injected proven talent into key positions, particularly on defense, where additions like nickelback Deshawn Pace and defensive tackle Lee Hunter can elevate the unit’s performance and help secure more victories.
• Favorable Schedule: UCF’s manageable schedule, including key home games against Utah and Arizona, positions the Knights well to build momentum early and capitalize on their talent, increasing their chances of hitting or exceeding their win total.

Why UCF might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Uncertainty: Despite the influx of talent, the defense is still a work in progress, with significant turnover and reliance on new transfers, which could lead to inconsistent performances and struggles in stopping high-powered Big 12 offenses.
• Quarterback Concerns: While KJ Jefferson has the potential to excel, his history of inconsistency and failure to fully reach his potential at Arkansas raises questions about whether he can be the reliable leader UCF needs to navigate a tough Big 12 schedule.
• Tough Road Games: UCF faces challenging away matchups, including trips to Kansas State and Oklahoma, where even minor mistakes or defensive lapses could lead to critical losses, making it harder for the Knights to reach their win total.

Their rating is 39, Conference rating is 10, projected wins are 7.70 (slightly over), with 6 games as projected favorites and 8 toss-up games.

 

Utah Utes

Current Win Total is 9.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -158 to go over (implied probability: 61.24%) and +128 to go under (implied probability: 43.86%). Odds to win the conference are +320 with an implied probability of 23.81%. 

Why Utah might go over their win total:

• Experienced Leadership: With Cam Rising back at quarterback, supported by key offensive weapons like Brant Kuithe and a bolstered backfield, Utah has the firepower and veteran presence to dominate the Big 12 and secure double-digit wins.
• Stout Defense: Utah’s defense, consistently ranked in the top 25 of SP+, returns 12 of its top 17 defenders, providing the depth and experience needed to control games and shut down high-powered Big 12 offenses.
• Tough Home Advantage: Playing at Rice-Eccles Stadium is a significant advantage, with the altitude and environment in Salt Lake City making it a daunting place for Big 12 opponents, increasing Utah’s chances of going undefeated at home.

Why Utah might not go over their win total:

• Offensive Uncertainty: Despite the return of Cam Rising, the offense struggled mightily last year, ranking 95th in team performance, and it’s unclear if they can fully rebound and consistently put up points against top Big 12 defenses.
• Injury Concerns: Key players like Rising and Kuithe are coming off significant injuries, and if they aren’t at full strength or go down again, Utah’s offense could sputter, leading to unexpected losses.
• Tough Road Games: Utah faces challenging road games against Oklahoma State and UCF, where even minor slip-ups could lead to losses, making it difficult for them to reach ten wins in a competitive Big 12.

Their rating is 17, Conference rating is 1, projected wins are 8.53 (under), with 11 games as projected favorites and 6 toss-up games.

 

West Virginia Mountaineers

Current Win Total is 6.5 (same as the opener), with odds of -128 to go over (implied probability: 56.14%) and +104 to go under (implied probability: 49.02%). Odds to win the conference are +1600 with an implied probability of 5.88%. 

Why West Virginia might go over their win total:

• Explosive Offense: With Garrett Greene’s dual-threat capabilities and a potent running back duo in CJ Donaldson Jr. and Jahiem White, the Mountaineers have the firepower to outscore opponents and grind out wins in tight games.
• Stability on the Offensive Line: Returning three starters, including key additions like Xavier Ballsy, ensures that Greene has the protection he needs to maximize his impact, helping West Virginia sustain drives and control the clock.
• Aggressive Coaching: Neal Brown’s willingness to take risks on fourth down, coupled with a retooled defense that addresses last season’s weaknesses, could lead to critical stops and game-changing moments that push the Mountaineers over the win total.

Why West Virginia might not go over their win total:

• Defensive Uncertainty: Despite bringing in several transfers, the Mountaineers’ defense still has question marks, especially in the secondary, which struggled last season, ranking 85th in QBR allowed; any regression could lead to high-scoring losses.
• Tough Schedule: Facing a challenging mid-season stretch with games against Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Arizona, all within a short span, West Virginia could struggle to maintain consistency and drop crucial games on the road.
• Reliance on Greene’s Development: While Garrett Greene has shown flashes of brilliance, his inconsistency as a passer (53% completion rate) and the pressure to take the next step might hinder the offense, especially if opposing defenses key in on his rushing ability.

Their rating is 31, Conference rating is 7,  projected wins are 6.26 (slightly under), with 7 games as projected favorites and 10 toss-up games.

 

So who’s making the conference title game? I’m going to stick to my guns and trust Utah and Coach Whittingham with an experienced, veteran group, especially since their schedule actually looks easier than when they were in the Pac 12… and I’ll go with the other favorite and say that Kansas State makes it to Arlington as well behind the arm & wheels of new standout QB Avery Johnson and their skill weapons behind Klieman’s well built lines and new OC Matt Wells.

 

Alright – let’s wrap this up.  Like the video, subscribe to the channel and the pod. And, of course, if you want to help the channel keep growing, become a member at BettingCFB.com

 

For Winning Cures Everything, God Bless College Football, and we’ll see ya on the next one.