UTSA vs Texas (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
UTSA vs Texas (Week 3): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
The Texas Longhorns welcome the UTSA Roadrunners to Austin in Week 3 for a non-conference clash. Coming off a dominating win at Michigan last week, Texas will look to build on their momentum against a struggling UTSA squad. The Roadrunners, fresh off a shocking 49-1 loss to Texas State, will need to regroup quickly to avoid another lopsided defeat. This is an in-state rivalry that UTSA hopes to make competitive, but the Longhorns enter as heavy favorites.
How to Watch UTSA vs Texas
- Game Date: Saturday, Week 3
- Kickoff Time: 7:00 PM Eastern Time
- TV Channel: ESPN
- Location: Darrell K Royal–Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX
Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline
- Point Spread: Texas -36
- Texas needs to win by more than 36 points to cover. UTSA can cover by winning outright or losing by fewer than 36 points.
- Total (Over/Under): 53.5
- A bet on the over wins if the combined score is 54 points or more. The under hits if the total is 53 points or fewer.
- Moneyline:
- Texas -7500 (Bet $7,500 to win $100 if Texas wins outright)
- UTSA +2180 (Bet $100 to win $2,180 if UTSA wins outright)
The implied score from these odds is Texas 45, UTSA 9.
Betting Spread, Total, and Moneyline Explained
- Point Spread: Texas is heavily favored at -36, meaning they must win by more than 36 points to cover the spread. UTSA will need to keep it close to cover or pull off a massive upset.
- Total (Over/Under): The total of 53.5 points suggests a game with moderate scoring, though Texas has the offensive firepower to hit the over on their own.
- Moneyline: Texas is a massive favorite, and the moneyline reflects that. A $100 bet on UTSA to win would pay out $2,180 if they pull off the upset.
Implied Score and Injury Report
The implied score is Texas 45, UTSA 9. As of now, Texas does not have any key injuries affecting the game. UTSA will need a strong effort to keep the score closer than projected.
Game Analysis: Texas Longhorns
The Longhorns are riding high after a statement victory over Michigan, and they’ll look to avoid a letdown against UTSA.
Offense:
Texas has shown marked improvement in the red zone, scoring 10 touchdowns in 11 red zone trips. Quinn Ewers has played with more poise this season, boasting an impressive 84.1 PFF grade. The offense has been explosive, tallying 14 plays of 20 yards or more through just two games. The Longhorns’ offensive line looks strong, giving Ewers plenty of time to make plays.
With the potential for a blowout, we may even get to see backup quarterback Arch Manning take the field in the second half, making this an opportunity for Texas to showcase its depth.
Defense:
Texas’ defense has been stout, ranking 9th in early-down EPA. Their ability to put UTSA in third-and-long situations will be crucial. Against Michigan, they capitalized on short fields and controlled the game. Expect more of the same against an overmatched Roadrunner offense.
Key to Watch:
Will Texas keep their foot on the gas, or will they rest their starters early? If Ewers and company are sharp, they could easily hit the over by themselves.
Game Analysis: UTSA Roadrunners
UTSA came into the season with higher expectations, but a crushing 49-1 loss to Texas State last week has raised questions about the team’s ability to compete against top-tier programs.
Offense:
The Roadrunners’ offense has been abysmal, ranking 128th in early-down EPA. With no run game to speak of and inconsistent quarterback play, UTSA has struggled to move the ball effectively. Quarterback Maau has not looked comfortable behind center, and the team’s inability to establish a ground attack has made them one-dimensional.
Defense:
Defensively, UTSA has been a disaster. They allowed Texas State to score on seven touchdown drives of 44 yards or more, including six drives that took six plays or fewer. Their secondary has been particularly vulnerable, allowing 111th-ranked QBR against less-than-stellar competition.
Key to Watch:
Can UTSA’s defense slow down Texas even a little? With their offense struggling to keep pace, UTSA will need to rely on its defense to avoid another embarrassing loss.
Recent Trends and Head-to-Head Matchup
- Texas: The Longhorns have covered four of their last five as a home favorite, including a dominant win last week. Their offense is clicking, and they’ll look to keep the momentum going.
- UTSA: The Roadrunners are 0-4 against the spread as a road underdog since 2022. After last week’s humiliating loss, it’s tough to see how they can cover a massive 36-point spread.
In their only previous meeting, Texas beat UTSA 41-20 in 2022, covering a 13-point spread with ease.
In-Depth Matchup Breakdown
Texas Game Plan:
The Longhorns will likely stick to their game plan of running a balanced offense. With UTSA’s defense struggling, Texas could open things up early and jump out to a big lead. Quinn Ewers and the Texas receivers should have plenty of opportunities for explosive plays, and running back Jonathon Brooks will look to exploit UTSA’s weak front seven.
UTSA Strategy:
UTSA needs to find a way to get the ball moving early. Their fast-paced offense ranks 14th in the nation in tempo, but they have yet to find any rhythm. Look for UTSA to try to wear down Texas’ defense by running as many plays as possible and trying to exploit any mismatches they can find.
Defensively, UTSA needs to slow down Texas enough to keep their offense in the game. If the Roadrunners allow Ewers to carve them up like Texas State did last week, this game could get ugly fast.
Prediction: UTSA vs Texas
Given UTSA’s poor performance and Texas’ dominance, this game could get out of hand quickly. Texas has shown they can score at will, and UTSA has looked completely out of sync. Expect the Longhorns to come out strong, and with Arch Manning likely seeing time late, Texas may not take their foot off the gas.
Final Score Prediction: Texas 49, UTSA 10
Pick: Over 53.5
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