Fresno State vs UNLV (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

Fresno State vs UNLV (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

The Fresno State Bulldogs travel to Las Vegas to take on the UNLV Rebels in a key Mountain West Conference showdown. Both teams have had impressive starts to their seasons, and this matchup at Allegiant Stadium is expected to be a close contest. Fresno State, riding high on a six-game winning streak against UNLV, will be looking to keep their momentum, while UNLV aims to leverage their home advantage and dynamic rushing attack.

Here’s everything you need to know about the game, including odds, predictions, betting analysis, and how to watch.

How to Watch Fresno State vs UNLV

  • Game Date: Saturday, Week 5
  • Kickoff Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FS1
  • Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

UNLV is set to host Fresno State at the impressive Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. You can catch all the action live on FS1, with kickoff scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time. This Mountain West matchup is shaping up to be one of the most exciting games of Week 5.

Betting Odds and Line Breakdown

  • Spread: UNLV -3.5
  • Moneyline: Fresno State +146, UNLV -175
  • Total Points (Over/Under): 52

The betting odds currently favor UNLV by 3.5 points, which isn’t surprising given their home-field advantage and recent form. Fresno State, however, is no stranger to road wins, and their +146 moneyline indicates potential value for bettors who think they can pull off the upset. The total points, or over/under, is set at 52, meaning oddsmakers expect a moderately high-scoring game.

Betting Spread

The spread represents how much a team is favored to win by. In this game, UNLV is favored by 3.5 points. To cover the spread, UNLV must win by at least 4 points, while Fresno State can cover the spread by either winning outright or losing by 3 points or fewer. The close spread suggests this game could come down to the wire, with UNLV’s improved defense and strong rushing attack going up against Fresno State’s more balanced offensive approach.

Moneyline

The moneyline is a bet on which team will win outright, without considering the point spread. In this case, UNLV is the favorite at -175, meaning a $175 bet would win you $100 if the Rebels come out on top. Fresno State is listed at +146, which means a $100 bet on the Bulldogs would return $146 if they win. With Fresno State’s history of winning six straight against UNLV, some bettors may be tempted by the underdog value here.

Total Points (Over/Under)

The total points (over/under) is a bet on the combined score of both teams. For this game, the over/under is set at 52 points. You can wager on whether the final score will be over or under that number. Both teams have shown the ability to score, but UNLV’s tendency to slow the pace with their run-heavy offense and Fresno State’s solid defense might push some bettors toward the under in this matchup.

Implied Score and Game Analysis

With a 3.5-point spread and an over/under of 52 points, the implied final score is approximately UNLV 28, Fresno State 24. This suggests a close game, with both teams expected to score in the mid-20s.

UNLV’s strategy has been to control the pace of games with a run-heavy offense, utilizing over 76% of their offensive plays on the ground this season. The Rebels’ offensive line has excelled in creating space for their rushing attack, ranking 10th in the nation in EPA (Expected Points Added) per rush. They’ll look to exploit Fresno State’s rushing defense, which has allowed an average of 4.5 yards per carry and gave up almost 500 total yards to New Mexico last week.

On the other side, Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene will lead a pass-heavy attack, as UNLV’s defense has shown vulnerability in the secondary, despite some improvements this year. UNLV ranks 9th in pass success rate allowed, thanks largely to the addition of Arkansas transfer Jalen Catalon in the secondary. However, their competition thus far hasn’t presented the kind of passing challenge that Fresno State will bring.

Injury Report

  • Fresno State: No major injuries reported, but their defense will need to tighten up after last week’s poor showing against New Mexico. Key players on both sides of the ball, particularly quarterback Mikey Keene, are healthy and ready for this crucial matchup.
  • UNLV: UNLV’s secondary, bolstered by the transfer of Jalen Catalon, has made strides, and their offensive line remains intact. The Rebels have been fortunate to avoid major injuries and are expected to be at full strength for this game.

Detailed Game Breakdown

UNLV comes into this game with a well-defined identity: run the football, control the clock, and wear down opponents. Their offense, led by a dynamic rushing attack, has managed to control the tempo in most of their games, ranking 66% run-heavy in play calling. Fresno State’s defense will be tested in this area, as they’ve allowed over 4 yards per carry to opponents this season.

On offense, Fresno State relies heavily on quarterback Mikey Keene, who has been efficient in the passing game. While UNLV’s secondary has improved from last season, their pass defense is still ranked 125th in pass success rate allowed, and Keene will likely look to exploit that. Fresno’s offense is far more balanced than UNLV’s, with the ability to both run and pass effectively, which could present problems for the Rebels’ defense.

Defensively, both teams have strengths and weaknesses. UNLV’s defense has been stout against the run, ranking 3rd nationally in rushing play success rate allowed, while Fresno’s offense is more pass-oriented, ranking among the top in passing efficiency. The key to the game will be whether Fresno State can stretch the field and force UNLV into a high-scoring shootout, or whether UNLV can control the pace and keep Fresno State’s offense off the field.

Betting Pick and Final Prediction

This game is shaping up to be a close contest between two contrasting styles. UNLV’s ability to run the ball and control the clock gives them the edge, but Fresno State’s passing attack could expose some weaknesses in the Rebels’ secondary. Ultimately, home-field advantage and UNLV’s improved defense might be the deciding factors.

Prediction: UNLV 28, Fresno State 24

Subscribe and Follow for More

Blog generated by AI

Colorado vs UCF (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch
Liberty vs Appalachian State (Week 5): Odds, Predictions & How to Watch

Our latest stories:

  • Week 10 College Football Preview: Predictions, Picks, and Where to Watch
  • College Football Week 10 Picks: Game Analysis, Odds & Where to Watch
  • Week 9 College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Detailed Breakdown of 20 Games