Listen to Podcast 138 to get all of these picks and more reasons behind them:

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Biggest Games of the Weekend

Clemson @ Virginia Tech

Saturday, Sept 30th / 7:00pm CT / ABC / Blacksburg, VA

I love Justin Fuente.  I love Josh Jackson.  Hell, I love Virginia Tech.

However… I don’t think Virginia Tech has the hosses to be able to hang with this Clemson team.  Saturday nights in Blacksburg can get a little bit crazy, but I don’t know that it can get crazy enough to slow down Clemson’s defense, which will be the determining factor here.  Remember, the Tigers have already been in a huge road night game at Louisville, so they were able to get Kelly Bryant a little bit of experience in the “road night game” department, and that will play huge here.

Expect Bud Foster’s defense to force some mistakes from Clemson’s offense, but I don’t think it’ll be enough here.  Chris believes Virginia Tech can win the game.  I think they could cover… but I don’t think they can win.

USC @ Washington St

Friday, Sept 29th / 9:30pm CT / ESPN / Pullman, WA

Chris is convinced that Mike Leach and Wazzou are going to win this game.

I had talked myself into it early in the week.

Now, as I’ve looked at more numbers, etc, I think this is the kind of game where USC decides to wake up and dominate another contender, kinda the same way they did against Stanford.

USC is immensely more talented at every position on the field.  I like Leach more than Clay Helton, so far as experience goes, but Leach takes the kinds of risks that can take his team out of a game.  Pullman is a crazy place to play, and I’m sure this game will be close, but I think USC escapes with a win here.

Miami (FL) @ Duke

Friday, Sept 29th / 6:00pm CT / ESPN / Durham, NC

David Cutcliffe (at Duke) is the most underrated coach in the country.  He’s done more with less in Durham for years, and he’s transformed his team into an aggressive, fiesty defensive team that can really cause problems.

The issue here is that the talent discrepancy in their 4 early games this season has been closer together than this one will be.  And when other teams may have had the talent advantage over Duke, Cutcliffe had a significant coaching advantage.

He won’t have that advantage over Richt.  I think Miami sneaks in here and grabs a convincing win over the Blue Devils.

Georgia @ Tennessee

Saturday, Sept 30th / 2:30pm CT / CBS / Knoxville, TN

Georgia’s defense is ferocious.  Tennessee has no identity.

Chris and I agree here… there are problems on the Hill in Knoxville, and right now is not a good time for Tennessee to be hosting Georgia, the 2nd best team in the SEC.  Kirby Smart knows what to expect from Butch Jones teams, and while his team was still growing last year, they still probably should have beaten a much more experienced Tennessee team last season.

I think Georgia runs all over Tennessee, their defense bottles up John Kelly and puts a ton of pressure on QB Dormady, and forces a lot of mistakes.  I think Georgia can run them out of the stadium.

Miss St @ Auburn

Saturday, Sept 30th / 5:00pm CT / ESPN / Auburn, AL

Miss St was the trendy underdog pick last week going into Athens, but they ran into a buzzsaw in Georgia’s defense.

They’re going to run into the same thing with Auburn.  Auburn’s front 4 is legitimate, and they’ll slow down the Bulldogs running game, and force Nick Fitzgerald to beat them through the air.

I don’t think Fitzgerald can do it.  Auburn should be able to put the clamps on Miss St, and they’ll score enough points to cover here.

GET THAT MONEY

Gary & Chris Gambling Picks

Gary’s picks

College Football

Texas @ Iowa St (+6)

• Tom Herman has a team that’s not quite used to him yet, but he’s proven to me, over the years, that he has a few games that he really gets his team up for (USC) and the ones that are just “we expect to win” kinda games, they can come out flat.  Iowa St is not a big time program, but Matt Campbell has this offense rolling on all cylinders.  They may not be able to stop Texas… but Texas won’t be able to stop them either.  Thursday night ESPN home underdog covers again here, as Campbell’s 42ppg scoring offense will keep this game close, and they may even pull off the upset at home.

Baylor (+15.5) @ Kansas St

• Baylor may be 0-4, but they’ve played better the last two weeks at Duke, and hosting Oklahoma, keeping the game within 14 and 8 points… which is much better than losing at home to Liberty and UT San Antonio.  Matt Rhule’s bunch is coming together, and they’re hungry for a win.  Bill Snyder is one of the best coaches ever against the spread, but he’s at his best when he’s an underdog.  As a favorite, he’s middle of the road.  This is a big number, especially against a team that is improving at the rate that Baylor is, now that they’ve finally found their QB in Zach Thomas.  I expect the Bears to keep this one close, but I think Kansas St wins without covering the number.

Iowa (+3.5) @ Michigan St

• Michigan St got absolutely exposed at home last week by Notre Dame.  Iowa showed, against Penn St, that they can play with the best teams in the country.  I think Iowa bounces back here and not only covers +3.5, but I think they win the game outright.  Iowa’s QB, Nate Stanley, is young, but he’s legit, and Akrum Wadley is a beast at running back.  Look for those two to have huge games in getting back in the win column.

Washington (-26.5) @ Oregon St

• Oregon St is 1-3 so far this season.  Those losses came by an average score of 53-21.  That’s losses to Colorado St, Minnesota, and Washington St.  None of those teams are as good as Washington.  Oregon St is really bad this year, and Washington’s defense is going to force a ton of mistakes en route to a big big win here.

Cal (+14) @ Oregon

• Oregon lost at Arizona St last week in a game where they were favored by 15.5.  Cal lost their first game of the year at home to USC 30-20.  Cal’s defense is legit – they may not be able to score a lot of points, but they can keep games really close.  I think Cal coach Justin Wilcox will hold onto the football for a bit and keep his team from making mistakes, and they won’t win, but they’ll cover 14.

NFL

Steelers (-2.5) @ Ravens

• The Ravens have a TON of guys on IR.  Their defense is legit, but they can’t score, and if you can’t score against the Steelers, you’re in trouble.  Big Ben will find a way to put up some points, and Baltimore won’t be able to keep up with Brown, Bryant, Bell, Smith, and the slew of offensive weapons at the Steelers’ disposal.  Less than a field goal here?  Yeah, I’ll take that.  Lay the points and take Pittsburgh.

Eagles (+1) @ Chargers

• The Chargers are winless this year, and the Eagles have looked pretty damn good this year.  They’ve got a better kicker, a better defense, and they’re equal on offense (Rivers is getting on up there in years, and Wentz is really figuring things out).  The Chargers have zero homefield advantage in LA, and while I think this game is close, the Eagles are the better team.  If I’m getting them taking points, you better believe I’m gonna be all over that.

Titans @ Texans (+1.5)

• It took a couple of weeks, but the Texans have gotten things figured out on offense and defense.  They took the Patriots to the wire last week, and now that they’re coming home for the first time since being embarassed by the Jaguars, they’re going to be hungry to get a win in their home building for all their fans that had to suffer through Hurricane Harvey and the aftermath of it.  The Titans are coming off of two big-time wins, but going on the road, I think the Texans find a way to pull this one out.